On Thursday, March 26, former HCSS Data Scientist Maarten Vonk defended his thesis, “From Inference to Influence: Applying Causal Game Theory to Complex Security Environments”, at Leiden University’s Academy Building.
When formulating policy, it is crucial to understand the true cause of a problem. Only in this way can policymakers take effective measures that produce the desired effect. However, establishing causal relationships poses a challenge, as observed patterns do not automatically indicate clear cause-and-effect relationships.
This dissertation offers various tools for applying causal analysis methods to complex security issues, paying specific attention to methods that take into account how different parties interact with one another. After all, in security situations, countries, organizations, or groups do not act in isolation, but rather anticipate each other’s actions and adjust their behaviour accordingly.
The dissertation presents a structured framework that supports policymakers in selecting suitable analysis methods for specific policy questions. For each method, the necessary assumptions are explained, as well as how to apply them in practice. Additionally, it demonstrates how causal analysis can be combined with strategic thinking by incorporating the intentions and potential reactions of adversaries.
Maarten Vonk’s dissertation was supervised by Prof. dr. Thomas Bäck (Professor of Computer Science with the Leiden Institute of Advanced Computer Science (LIACS), Leiden University), Dr. Anna Kononova (Assistant Professor at the Leiden Institute of Advanced Computer Science (LIACS), Leiden University) and Dr. Tim Sweijs (research director of The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies).
The dissertation was supported by HCSS in collaboration with the Leiden Institute of Advanced Computer Science (LIACS), as part of the PROGRESS research framework agreement for the Netherlands Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Defence.
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