Something is brewing in Moscow. According to Putin, the war is progressing crescendo. But appearances are deceptive. Large-scale offensives have become impossible because of Ukraine’s superiority in drone warfare. It is a snapshot in time heavily influenced by weather conditions, but no one can deny that Ukraine’s drone advantage is causing major headaches for Russian strategists. To create the illusion of success, AI-generated videos are being made showing Russian soldiers infiltrating Ukrainian front lines and raising the Russian flag there. However, Russia suffered a net territorial loss in April, and its losses cannot be adequately compensated.
Putin attempted to make up for the lack of progress with attacks on energy infrastructure, Ukrainian industry, and civilian targets. But despite the harsh winter, the population did not break.
Putin himself is increasingly cornered. Public support is eroding. He is giving more room to military bloggers who criticize the “special military operation.” The economy is groaning under sanctions and drone attacks on the energy sector. There are growing reports of dissatisfied entrepreneurs because the defense industry is siphoning money and workers away from the civilian economy. Russia is likely already in a recession.
Then there is the strange report that Putin is avoiding his residences in Moscow and Valdai, even though they are protected by S-400 air defense systems. Instead, he is said to be spending most of his time in a bunker in Krasnodar Krai on the Black Sea coast, where he has also had a new palace built.
Equally strange was the May 9 parade, Russia’s most important national holiday. The advanced weaponry with which Putin likes to show off was absent. The official reason was fear of Ukrainian attacks. Moreover, the weapons were supposedly needed for the war effort. Whatever the explanation, it is a sign of weakness.
Fear of attacks suggests that Putin cannot protect his own country. And if all those weapons are needed for the fight against Ukraine, it implies that stockpiles may be running low.
All this stands in stark contrast to Putin’s speech during the stripped-down parade. According to him, victory is near and Russia will keep fighting until all objectives are achieved. Even stranger was that only a few hours later, Putin hinted that the war might be coming to an end. He even suggested he might ask former German Chancellor Schröder to act as a mediator. Schröder would then negotiate with European countries about the future security order.
Apparently, Putin envisions a two-track strategy: Trump must force Ukraine to surrender the remainder of the Donbas in exchange for peace, while Schröder negotiates with the Europeans over a neutral Ukraine. The second track makes sense because Trump now has little influence over Europe.
If my assessment is correct, this indicates that Putin sees no quick military way out.
He apparently believes that, after statements by EU leaders over the past week, they want a rapid end to the war and are willing to make concessions. Belgian Prime Minister De Wever even suggested normalizing relations with Russia. But Kallas, the EU’s foreign policy chief, expressed little enthusiasm for Schröder or rushed negotiations. She is right. If Putin is truly cornered, then he should take the first step and make concessions. Otherwise, he still wins.
Source: Trouw, Rob de Wijk, 14 mei 2026
Experts
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