The reckless war that President Trump has launched against Iran, with support from Israel, is having predictable consequences. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is forcing countries in Asia to turn to Russia for oil and fertilizer. Indonesia and the Philippines are set to import Russian oil. India is building an urea plant together with Russia to produce raw materials for fertilizer. Thailand and the United Arab Emirates are negotiating with Russia over fertilizer supplies. Russia has also signed contracts with Vietnam and Myanmar for the construction of a nuclear power plant.
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas warned that in this way, the aggressor in the war against Ukraine is being rewarded. But that argument is not resonating in large parts of the world.
Anti-colonial sentiments still play a role. Putin is seen as reliable, especially in former communist countries and former Western colonies. He is viewed as a strong leader who stands up to Western dominance. This anti-Western sentiment should not be underestimated and is one of the reasons why Chinese President Xi continues to support Russia in its illegal war against Ukraine. A Russian defeat in Europe would stand in the way of the global order Xi hopes to reshape. Xi has not forgotten the “century of humiliation” that ended in 1949 with the founding of the People’s Republic. Now is the time, in his view, to challenge a weakened West.
At the same time, other countries are turning toward the EU. At the summit of the European Political Community (EPC), held this week in the Armenian capital Yerevan, not only the spirit of Putin loomed, but also that of Trump. The EPC—an initiative by French President Macron to unite like-minded European countries after Putin invaded Ukraine in 2022—was initially dismissed. But holding this meeting in a former Soviet republic is a blow to Putin.
Aversion to Trump has now become just as important. European Council President Costa said the summit aimed to show that, in a time of geopolitical chaos, many countries still believe in the international legal order—one that Trump is undermining. That is precisely why Canadian Prime Minister Carney attended as the first non-European head of government. For him, the trip to Yerevan was a clear signal that he is seeking alternatives to ties with the United States.
Rutte, Macron, and von der Leyen also could not ignore Trump’s plan to withdraw 5,000 soldiers from Germany. Last year, Trump had already announced the withdrawal of units from Romania. At the time, figures of up to 20,000 troops eventually leaving Europe were circulating. Now, however, the White House wants to present the withdrawal as punishment for Merz’s sharp criticism of Trump’s Iran policy.
This week once again made clear that the world is fragmenting. Trump is accelerating a process that has been underway for some time. He is driving countries into the arms of Russia and China, while also pushing Western countries to unite more closely around the EU. I believe Trump does not realize that this ultimately weakens his own position.
Source: Trouw, Rob de Wijk, 8 mei 2026
Experts
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