Publications

Over the years, HCSS has built up an extensive archive of reports, monitors, papers and other publications. We disseminate the results of our research as broadly as possible to benefit the public good. Use the advanced search functions below to browse through our research library, most of which is available as free PDF downloads.

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Reshaping the international legal order: China's strategic use of lawfare and lessons learned for Europe

16 Apr 2026

A new HCSS report examines how China uses lawfare to reshape the international legal order from within. By reinterpreting norms, building parallel institutions, and leveraging legal asymmetries, Beijing is expanding its influence across trade, technology, and maritime governance. The report outlines what this means for Europe and how policymakers can strengthen resilience and maintain normative influence in an increasingly contested legal landscape.

Making Russia Fear Escalation Again

26 Mar 2026

Russia’s hybrid war is expanding, exploiting NATO’s reluctance to escalate. Alexander Mattelaer’s latest HCSS paper argues that defensive resilience alone cannot stop Moscow. NATO must undermine the Kremlin’s confidence by demonstrating credible escalation options and reinforcing political will. “If NATO wants Moscow to back down, Russian leaders must fear escalation again,” Mattelaer warns. The paper lays out how Europe can restore strategic restraint and counter Russia’s confidence-driven hybrid strategy.

Climate Stress and EU Cohesion: Strengthening European Resilience through Climate Adaptation

24 Mar 2026

While heat, drought and wildfires disproportionately affect Southern and Southeastern Europe, flooding increasingly impacts Central and Northern regions. This new HCSS report by Ron Stoop and Laura Birkman shows how uneven climate impacts risk straining EU cohesion and decision-making. As climate hazards intensify, diverging national interests could weaken Europe’s collective response capacity. The report argues that targeted adaptation, including in agriculture, infrastructure and coastal resilience, can reduce these tensions and strengthen the EU’s economic security and political stability.

Lessons from the Jungle for the Zoo: Support Ukraine, Help Ourselves | Key Findings Ukraine Visit

5 Feb 2026

HCSS research director Tim Sweijs visited Kyiv in 2025 to study Ukraine’s battlefield adaptations, industrial resilience, and societal mobilisation. This new HCSS report, co-written by Elie Tenenbaum and Jan Feldhusen, shows that supporting Ukraine is essential not only to uphold sovereignty but also to strengthen Europe’s defence capabilities. Key recommendations focus on closing battlefield gaps, fostering joint European-Ukrainian industrial partnerships, and institutionalising lessons to accelerate Western adaptation for a more secure Europe.

Shields and Spears: Nuclear-Conventional Force Balancing and the European Deterrence Architecture

30 Jan 2026

Europe’s reliance on American deterrence is no longer assured. This HCSS report outlines a European-led “shield and spear” posture that strengthens conventional deterrence, reduces escalation risks, and adapts to US retrenchment and Russian military modernisation. Authors Davis Ellison and Tim Sweijs set out concrete political, military, and industrial pathways for a more independent European deterrence architecture.

Assessing Europe’s Resilience and Preparedness in an Era of Strategic Risks

2 Dec 2025

Europe’s resilience is still situational, not systemic, concludes a new joint HCSS and CSDS report. The report finds that Europe’s ability to withstand hybrid shocks remains uneven, with civil–military cooperation and military mobility emerging as critical vulnerabilities. The authors propose concrete EU–NATO and Dutch recommendations to strengthen energy, transport and digital resilience, and argue that true deterrence now depends on treating resilience as a core strategic capability.

Blinded By Bias: Western Policymakers and Their Perceptions of Russia before 24 February 2022

9 Sep 2025

Why did so many Western governments fail to anticipate Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, despite all the warning signs? Based on 44 interviews and in-depth analysis, this groundbreaking new HCSS report by Tim Sweijs, Thijs van Aken, Julie Ebrard, Philippe van Pappelendam and Anna Hoefnagels reveals how psychological and cognitive biases distorted policymakers’ threat perception — with far-reaching consequences.

Deterrence Warning Messages: A Short Guide for NATO

12 Jun 2025

Why do deterrence efforts fail? Often, it’s not what is said, but how it’s said. In a new report, HCSS strategic advisor Dr. Jeffrey H. Michaels explores how the success or failure of deterrence often hinges not just on military threats, but on how warnings are communicated. With case studies from WWI to Ukraine, this report offers practical lessons for NATO’s current and future deterrence strategies.

From the Euronuke to a Nuclear Weapon Free Zone: Europe’s Options in an Era of Eroding American Extended Deterrence

27 Mar 2025

The latest HCSS report examines the precarious state of the international nuclear order and the challenges Europe faces as U.S. security guarantees become increasingly uncertain. With arms control agreements collapsing and the return of transactional U.S. alliances, European nations must explore alternative deterrence strategies. This report by Davis Ellison, Samuel Zilincik, and Tim Sweijs outlines six potential pathways for strengthening European security, from nuclear-sharing to strategic conventional weapons.

Guest Paper | Are the West’s Golden Years Over?

19 Mar 2025

This guest paper Are the West’s Golden Years Over? was written by Dr. Florence Gaub in anticipation of the third The Hague Strategic Foresight Forum Talks titled 'The Future World Order', held on 11 December 2024. The paper examines the narrative of Western decline in contrast to the rising influence of China and Russia. It argues that by embracing innovation and a forward-looking vision, the West can reshape its future and reclaim global leadership.

Deterring or Spiralling? Emerging Technologies, Strategic Stability, and Prospects for Sino-European Arms Control

12 Mar 2025

How are EDTs reshaping nuclear deterrence and global defence strategies? The latest HCSS report by Davis Ellison, Tim Sweijs, and Timur Ghirotto explores how emerging and disruptive technologies (EDTs) like AI, hypersonic missiles, and cyber warfare threaten global security. It highlights the urgent need for arms control measures, transparency, and European engagement with China to prevent instability.

In the Shadows of War: The Impact of Russia's Invasion of Ukraine on Criminal Networks in Eastern Europe

6 Mar 2025

How has Russia’s invasion of Ukraine opened up new spaces for organised crime to become weaponised across Europe and thereby risking security across the continent? This report by Laura Jasper, Ana Dadu, and Davis Ellison examines how the Russian invasion of Ukraine has enabled criminal networks to exploit wartime instability, adapt to shifting markets, and expand their operations across Eastern Europe. Key findings reveal a significant link between organised crime, kleptocracy, and stability, highlighting their particularly destabilising impact on Eastern Europe. Understanding these dynamics is crucial to addressing the hidden criminal dimensions of war.

Chaos, Orde en Machtspolitiek: HCSS Strategische Monitor 2025

16 Jan 2025

De wereld is in transitie, en de EU moet zich aanpassen. De nieuwste HCSS Strategische Monitor “Chaos, Orde en Machtspolitiek” benadrukt: strategische autonomie, het vergoten van de defensiecapaciteit en samenwerking met het mondiale zuiden zijn cruciaal. Onderzoekers Frank Bekkers, Rob de Wijk, Jesse Kommandeur en Ron Stoop benadrukken dat Europa een verenigde aanpak nodig heeft om de uitdagingen van deze tijd te overwinnen. Alleen door gezamenlijk op te treden kunnen de EU-lidstaten een sleutelrol spelen in de nieuwe wereldorde.

Notitie | Defensieplanning: Van evenwicht naar keuzes

25 Nov 2024

De Nederlandse krijgsmacht staat voor een fundamentele verandering door de nieuwe geopolitieke situatie in Europa, mede veroorzaakt door de Russische inval in Oekraïne. Deze paradigmaverandering brengt discussies met zich mee over Europese defensie, de rol van de VS en de verdeling van middelen tussen nationale en internationale taken. De veranderende veiligheidssituatie vereist politieke keuzes over de vraag welke bijdrage Nederland aan de collectieve verdediging van Europa wil leveren, stellen Frank Bekkers, Rob de Wijk en Hans van der Louw in deze nieuwe HCSS notitie.

Write-up | Navigating Tomorrow: Global Perspectives on Future Security Trends

14 Nov 2024

On September 23, 2024, The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS) hosted experts from South Africa, Brazil, and global organizations like the UN to discuss future security trends and establish a global foresight baseline. This was the second event in the "Hague Strategic Foresight Forum Talks" series, titled "Global Perspectives on Future Security Trends." This summary reflects non-Western experts' views on Western models of cooperation, democracy, and the interplay between multipolarity and multilateralism, offering insights from African, Latin American, and UN perspectives. Key takeaways and conclusions shared by participants are also included.

Twilight of Atlanticism? America’s shifting approaches to Europe

11 Nov 2024

This new HCSS report by strategic analyst Davis Ellison concludes that the days of relying on the U.S. as the primary guarantor of European security may be coming to an end. The transatlantic partnership will not disappear overnight, but significant changes are underway. Europe must prepare for a future where it will play a much larger role in its own defence and security affairs.

Far Seas, Hard Choices: Aligning Ambitious European Objectives with Capabilities and Coalitions for the Indo-Pacific

14 Oct 2024

The most logical use of European naval capabilities does not lie in the Western Pacific, but rather in the Western Indian Ocean, conclude Davis Ellison, Benedetta Girardi and Laura Jasper in this new HCSS brief, which explores why and how different coalitions of European military forces can form and deploy to the Indo-Pacific, the trade-offs faced by European states as they seek both partners within Europe and in the region and the respective impacts these choices make on the military and economic dynamics of the region.

Guest Paper | What divides us? And the impact on democracy and stability

19 Sep 2024

This guest paper 'What divides us? And the impact on democracy and stability' was written by Jakkie Cilliers in anticipation of the second The Hague Strategic Foresight Forum Talks titled 'Global Perspectives on Future Security Trends'. This closed-door event will be held on the 23rd of September 2024. The paper examines the widening gap between the Global North and Global South amid shifting economic and political dynamics. It explores how these global divisions—fueled by economic disparities, geopolitical tensions, and climate change—affect democratisation, governance, and global stability. The piece also delves into Africa's unique challenges and opportunities within this evolving landscape.

Guest Paper | A Latin American perspective on the key drivers of future international security trends

18 Sep 2024

This guest paper 'A Latin American perspective on the key drivers of future international security trends' was written by Prof. Alcides Costa Vaz in anticipation of the second The Hague Strategic Foresight Forum Talks titled 'Global Perspectives on Future Security Trends'. This closed-door event will be held on the 23rd of September 2024. The paper highlights how Latin America, while generally free from interstate wars, faces significant security threats from organised crime, geopolitical rivalries, technological vulnerabilities, and environmental degradation. These trends are likely to persist, shaping both regional and global security landscapes in the near future.

Write-up | Navigating Tomorrow: Transatlantic Outlooks on the Future Security Landscape and its Implications for the Netherlands

12 Sep 2024

On the 3rd of July 2024, The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS) invited experts from across the transatlantic community, specifically the US National Intelligence Council, NATO Allied Command Transformation (ACT), and the EU Institute for Security Studies to exchange views on future security trends in the transatlantic community and their implications for the Netherlands and Europe. This write-up of the event provides a summary of what was discussed, the trends, drivers, shocks and provides some key takeaways for practitioners.

Freedom isn't Free | A cost-benefit analysis of support for Ukraine

30 May 2024

In this new Clingendael/HCSS co-production, Tim Sweijs, Bob Deen and Roman de Baedts analyze the consequences of continuing or stopping military support by the US and Europe. For Europe, a Russian victory will entail very high costs on multiple dimensions, the authors conclude. It is therefore preferable to continue to provide long-term and significant support to avert that scenario - even if the Americans no longer participate.

Freedom isn't free | Een kosten-baten analyse van de steun aan Oekraïne

22 Apr 2024

De kosten en baten van de steun voor Oekraïne - een Clingendael/HCSS co-productie. Een nieuwe paper over de gevolgen van voortzetten of stoppen van militaire steun door de VS en Europa, geschreven door Tim Sweijs, Bob Deen en Roman de Baedts.

Strategic Dynamics in the Indo-Pacific: Partnership for Maintaining Inclusive and Stable Maritime Region

22 Apr 2024

The Indo-Pacific stands as the 21st century's strategic epicenter, with Southeast Asia pivotal in its maritime dynamics. The ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific guides cooperation, including EU support. Addressing challenges is crucial for a stable, rules-based region. This paper by guest author Sumathy Permal delves into three key areas: assessing maritime challenges in Southeast Asia, exploring shared maritime interests between the EU and Indo-Pacific states, and discussing security frameworks suited to the regional context. Addressing these facets is vital for realizing a secure, rules-based Indo-Pacific.

Debating EU Enhanced Naval Presence in the Indo-Pacific: From Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA) to Coordinated Maritime Presence (CMP)

22 Apr 2024

Europe's interest in the Indo-Pacific grows due to trade, economic concerns, and broader international order issues. Despite obstacles, the EU is enhancing maritime engagement, focusing on information exchange and coordinated presence. This paper by guest author Marianne Peron Doise delves into Europe's objectives in the region, the hurdles it faces, and strategies for further contribution to maritime security.

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