Research
Hybrid threats have become a structural feature of today’s security environment, allowing states to pursue strategic objectives below the threshold of armed conflict. While European debates have largely centred on Russia, this new HCSS report demonstrates that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has developed a broad and adaptive hybrid toolkit that increasingly affects small and middle powers (SMPs) in Europe and the Asia-Pacific.
Drawing on an original HCSS database of confirmed Chinese hybrid threat incidents targeting 50 SMPs, the report maps activity across five domains: digital and information warfare, economic statecraft, paramilitary operations, physical disruption, and legal and political activities. The findings show that Chinese hybrid activity is systematic rather than incidental, with cyber operations, disinformation, and economic leverage forming the core of Beijing’s approach across both regions. While tactics vary by geography, they are consistently tailored to exploit national dependencies and institutional vulnerabilities.
A central finding is that most SMPs still respond to Chinese hybrid threats in an ad-hoc and reactive manner. Such responses may address individual incidents but fail to build long-term resilience. The report argues that hybrid threats should instead be understood as a structural element of the PRC’s foreign policy, requiring coherent strategic posturing rather than isolated countermeasures.
To support this shift, the report introduces a framework that distinguishes four strategic approaches adopted by SMPs: bandwagoning, hedging, balancing, and countering. Through comparative analysis and case studies, it demonstrates how each posture entails distinct trade-offs in terms of sovereignty, economic exposure, and retaliation risks. Importantly, even accommodating strategies rely on detection and preparedness, while more assertive approaches demand higher institutional capacity and political resolve.
The report concludes with tailored recommendations for each strategic posture. These include strengthening early-warning and attribution capabilities, mapping and stress-testing economic dependencies, improving cross-government coordination, and aligning domestic resilience measures with foreign-policy positioning.
As lead author Benedetta Girardi notes:
“Hybrid threats are not isolated disruptions but part of a long-term strategy. Small and middle powers cannot afford to respond incident by incident; they need to position themselves consciously and coherently in relation to China.”
Authors: Benedetta Girardi, Noemie Jacq, Fiona De Cuyper and Laura Jasper
Contributors: Sofia Romansky, Elton Hogklint and Emma Genovesi
Quality Assurance: Tim Sweijs
The research was made possible through a financial contribution from the Taipei Representative Office in the Netherlands to the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS).
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