Research
An analysis of security implications of economic crises finds that:
• Economic crises impact the balance of power at both the regional and global levels. Economic crises alter the distribution of power and introduce uncertainties about the future trajectory and stability of the system. The current economic crisis accelerates a shift in the balance of power from West to East.
• Economic crises have a direct impact on defence spending. They thus limit and even alter strategic objectives at both the domestic and international levels. Due to time-lags in defence budgeting and fluctuations in the severity of the crisis, it is
sometimes difficult to prove this effect.
• Economic crises cause internal instability and political/social unrest within states. This may have ramifications at the international level. The current crisis has caused internal instability and political/social unrest resulting in a change of governments in a number of countries.Economic crises also challenge the stability of the international system. Our statistical analysis shows that states experience slight increases in conflict during crisis periods. However, this is not necessarily due to the crisis.
HCSS analysed 76 peer-reviewed academic studies and 42 expert opinions on the security implications of economic crises. Periods of crises show a marked up-turn in the number of studies on this subject. Based on its research, HCSS developed a visual model of the various security implications of economic crises and their transmission through the system
Experts
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