Without a doubt there are compelling reasons to be alarmed about Iran pursuing the atomic bomb. The prevalent rational is: the mullahs cannot be trusted, and if they were to acquire nuclear weapons Iran will seriously endanger its neighbors; consequently triggering a nuclear arms race in the Middle East, as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and others deem it necessary to join the nuclear club.
Fear of Iran is not new. For three decades the Islamic Republic of Iran and the US and its allies (inside and outside the Middle East) have exchanged distrust and hostility. Provocations and counter provocations have come and gone: Khomeini dubbed the US Iblis (the great Satan), Bush returned the compliment by including Iran in the “axis of evil.” Since 1979 the US have enacted different sanctions against Iran, while Iran sought every means to frustrate US interests and harass US friendly regimes in the region. The nuclear standoff seems to be the straw that will break the camel’s back. No longer the US and its allies are willing to tolerate the condition of “no peace, no war.” While the world is horrified about Iran’s nuclear program, there are several reasons why hell will not break loose if Iran gets the bomb:
First, historical evidence suggest that the mullahs are not an offensive but a defensive regime. Since the mullahs came to power thirty years ago they did not initiate a single war and have made no use of any chemical weapons (nor did they smuggle them to terrorist organizations).
Second, the mullahs regime’s primary goal is survival. Their intoxication with power places a credible restrain on their actions. Even Iran’s hard-line President Ahmadinjad is risk averse. His provocative and aggressive rhetoric is nothing but empty slogans. Iran poses no insurmountable threat to Israel, not now or later. Why? With an estimate of 100 nuclear bombs and the fourth largest army in the world, Israel has credible means to deter any Iranian attack. Moreover, Israel has not only its own deterrence capability but also is backed by the might of the rest of the world, and especially the US. Ahmadinjad and the radical mullahs behind him are agitators but also calculators. We may not like them, but we can trust them because they want to live and rule.
Third, the claim that nuclear-armed Iran will trigger a nuclear arms race in the region is attractive but does not pass the test of history. Since at least 1975, the region has lived with a nuclear-armed Israel, yet no other country in the region has felt compelled to attain the bomb. The exception here is Iraq. However, in all likelihood, Saddam’s Iraq would have sought nuclear weapons, whether Israel had them or not. If Iran develops the bomb, there is no reason to think that the security of the Arab countries will be worse off than before. For at least four decades every Arab state (moderate and radical) without nuclear weapons lived with a nuclear-armed Israel, their enemy No.1. And yet to mitigate fear of a nuclear-armed Iran, one solution is to establish a nuclear deterrence umbrella in the Gulf, as suggested by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
Fourth, the clock for the Iranian regime’s downfall is ticking. Its policies are its own worst enemy. Human rights abuses have cost the regime dearly. The response of the regime to the recent demonstrations underlines its brutality and its unpopularity. Human Rights Watch has called the post-election crackdown “a human rights disaster.” Thousands of people have been arrested, and many of those arrested were beaten or tortured. At least 40 had died. To intimidate protesters and subdue the political unrest, the regime resorted to the medieval practice of execution. International isolation and economic mismanagement have undermined economic development and retarded progress. The banking system is fragile, foreign investment is negligible, and unemployment is high.
Thanks to the ruling elites – today’s Iran is weak, divided, and isolated, but in the meanwhile the regime has made itself pariah outside and inside Iran. It stands no chance of surviving much longer, for as Lincoln put it, “A house divided against itself cannot stand.” The race to the bomb is on, but a regime change is also in the way. For the sake of Iran and the rest of the world we hope a regime change arrives before the bomb. But if Iran gets the bomb first, it is not the end of the world.
