Although the Russian submarine fleet is impressive on paper, just how well the Soviet-era submarines are preserved and continue to function is largely unknown, say HCSS strategic analysts Paul van Hooft and Frederik Mertens in Newsweek. “There is an air of “recklessness” and a willingness to take risks in Russia’s attitudes to both its land forces and submarines, which NATO countries would not take.”
Read on for the full article by Newsweek’s Ellie Cook.
- Russia’s submarine fleet “far outstrips” the capabilities of its surface vessels, which have experienced several high-profile embarrassments.
- Underwater capabilities have not played a major role in Moscow’s war in Ukraine.
- However, the ongoing war is likely to damage Russia’s ability to develop these advanced submarines which have been labeled a “critical threat” to the United States.
“Without a proper navy, Russia does not have a future as a state,” then Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said in 2009, as Moscow forged ahead with wide-ranging plans for its naval forces.
Yet years later, Russia’s surface fleet falls short—a relatively unimpressive force that has been allowed to “atrophy,” one former U.S. Navy admiral previously told Newsweek. With high-profile mishaps, including the loss of the Black Sea flagship, the Mosvka, in April 2022, and Russia’s only aircraft carrier making a habit of catching on fire, many of Russia’s above-water ships, excluding some newer, smaller ships, are largely seen as not up to scratch.
But the same cannot be said of the vessels Russia hides below the surface of the world’s oceans and seas. Unlike the more visible surface ships, Russia’s submarines are widely considered some of the best in the world.
However, Russia’s submarine capabilities risk being diluted by its focus on the Ukraine war, which mainly involves land forces, and their future development jeopardized by Western sanctions.
Russia’s Navy Is ‘Best Under Water’
Moscow’s excellent submarines come in just after the United States in a measure of underwater capabilities, retired U.S. Navy Admiral James Foggo told Newsweek. According to the non-profit Nuclear Threat Initiative, Russia has an estimated 58 submarines, including both diesel-powered and nuclear submarines. Per this count, Russia has 17 nuclear-powered attack submarines and nine nuclear-powered cruise missile submarines (SSGNs).
“Just how well the Soviet-era submarines are preserved and continue to function is largely unknown.”
HCSS strategic analyst Frederik Mertens
Among Russia’s fleet are the Yasen, and updated Yasen-M class SSGNs, which were previously described to Newsweek by RAND corporation expert Edward Geist as “the crown jewel of the contemporary Russian Navy and perhaps the pinnacle of present-day Russian military technology.” They are capable of carrying Russia’s new hypersonic missiles, known as Tsirkon or Zircon, as well as long-range Kalibr cruise missiles, which have been used against Ukrainian targets.
Russian state media also announced the delivery of further nuclear-powered submarines to the Navy in the coming months back in December, including the Borei-class Generalissimo Suvorov, which was handed over to the Navy in a ceremony in December 2022.
Russia has announced new investment in its submarine capabilities, including what Russian state media claimed to be a new “division” of submarines carrying nuclear-capable “super-torpedoes” in the coming years.
Russia’s submarine fleet “far outstrips” its surface fleet by several metrics, including capability, reach and stealth, Graeme P. Herd, of the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies, told Newsweek.
Throughout the post-Cold War period, Russia’s naval focus has been on developing submarines and new capabilities for the underwater vessels, whereas Moscow has largely lost its ability to construct new, large surface vessels, Dmitry Gorenburg of the Center for Naval Analyses (CNA), a U.S. think tank, added to Newsweek.
Russia’s navy, and the precursor Soviet navy, have always been “best under water,” with nuclear-powered submarine technology still holding Moscow as “among the leading powers,” according to Nick Childs, senior fellow for naval forces and maritime security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) think tank.
Its fleet may have fewer modern nuclear-powered submarines such as the Yasen-class when compared to much of the 20th century, but they remain “very capable, and along with some of the older submarines would still pose a threat to NATO both at sea and against land-based targets,” he told Newsweek.
Michael Petersen, the head of the Russia Maritime Studies Institute, previously told Newsweek that Moscow’s submarine fleet was the “critical challenge” to the U.S, and many experts agree.
However, although the fleet is impressive on paper, just how well the Soviet-era submarines are preserved and continue to function is largely unknown, according to Frederik Mertens, a strategic analyst at the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS) research organization. Russia’s submarine force has never been “fully tested in combat, Childs added, and although it is assumed the submarines are superior to the surface fleet, “the extent of that remains unclear.”
There is an air of “recklessness” and a willingness to take risks in Russia’s attitudes to both its land forces and submarines, which NATO countries would not take, HCSS senior strategic analyst Paul van Hooft added to Newsweek.
Newsweek has asked the Russian Defense Ministry for comment by email.
“There is an air of “recklessness” and a willingness to take risks in Russia’s attitudes to both its land forces and submarines, which NATO countries would not take.”
HCSS senior strategic analyst Paul van Hooft
Russian Navy in Ukraine
Russia’s Navy has played a very limited role in Moscow’s operations in Ukraine. The nuclear-capable submarine force is divided between the Northern and Pacific fleets, which have had no real direct role in the Ukraine war. Russia’s nuclear submarines are protected by another wave of submarines, which is what the country’s nuclear deterrent hinges on, van Hooft said.
These submarines have a “primary goal” of “delivering strategic nuclear strikes against the U.S.,” Herd said. Last month, the Pacific Fleet underwent a series of military drills described by the Kremlin as a “surprise inspection” involving 12 submarines.
Although Russia’s “priorities” continued to be the war in Ukraine, “still, the objective to develop the navy, including in the Pacific theater of operations, remains relevant,” Russian President Vladimir Putin told Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, according to a Kremlin readout.
“It is clear that some of the fleet’s assets can be used in conflicts elsewhere,” Putin added.
Russia’s Black Sea fleet, with its bases at the Crimean port of Sevastopol and in the southern Russian city of Novorossiysk, has played a greater part in the war effort so far. Submarines have been used to launch land-attack cruise missiles such as the Kalibrs, but Russia’s conventionally-powered submarines lurking in the Black Sea still pose problems for NATO activity in the Black Sea and shipping routes, Childs noted. On the whole, however, Russia’s submarine fleet has been “largely unaffected” by the ongoing conflict, according to Gorenburg.
But in some ways, the conflict is nonetheless reaching—or will reach—the Russian Navy. Kyiv’s Western backers, including the U.S., have slapped sanctions on Moscow aimed at crippling the Kremlin’s ability to wage war, and in December 2022, the State Department beefed up the measures targeting Russia’s naval power.
“I think they’ve been severely crippled by these economic sanctions,” retired Admiral Foggo said, as well as “by their own foolishness in the war in Ukraine.”
Sustaining the development of advanced submarines will therefore become increasingly difficult “when they don’t have the raw materials, they can’t sustain the industrial base, they don’t have the manpower—because that manpower is going into fighting the war [in Ukraine],” Foggo said.
This compromises Russia’s ability to invest in forward-thinking development, such as new-generation submarines “to rival the best in the West,” he said.
“The protracted nature of the conflict and the coming Ukrainian counteroffensive undercuts Russian military credibility,” Herd said. There is likely a growing pressure on Russia’s navy to project an image of strength through its fleet, making it take “greater risks” to use submarines that are not sea-worthy, he said, as well as fast-tracking the development of weapons systems.
“Russia’s nuclear submarines – which have had no real direct role in the Ukraine war – are protected by another wave of submarines, which is what the country’s nuclear deterrent hinges on.”
HCSS senior strategic analyst Paul van Hooft
“Submarines are the most expensive ticket item in Russia’s military budget and have no obvious utility in this war—so Russia compensates and projects power through acceptance of greater risk,” Herd said. Russia’s submarines “will suffer indirect and long-term damage the longer the war lasts.”
Some experts, such as Herd, argue that the sanctions highlight just how much Russia’s defense industrial complex has been, and is, reliant on Western technology—something which then impacts Russia’s development. Without access to this technology, there are few substitute sources available for the advanced Russian submarines, he told Newsweek. Technology from, for example, China, cannot meet Moscow’s requirements, he added.
It’s difficult to work out just how dependent Russia’s submarines have been on foreign technology, Gorenburg said, but it is likely imported technology would be needed for at least some parts of submarine development. Yet here there is also the distinction between the surface and underwater fleets, with nuclear submarines in particular less likely to need foreign technology, he continued.
“While the newest Russian submarines are very capable, Russia’s inefficient shipbuilding industry has struggled to deliver them on time and in significant numbers,” Childs added. “This could well be exacerbated by the increased demands on other sectors of the defense industry as a result of the war, as well as from the impact of sanctions on certain key components,” he added.
But there are two possible scenarios presented by experts for the future of Russia’s submarine fleet.
Ultimately, if there are constraints on resources across the Russian military, there will likely be a prioritization of rebuilding the forces that have been more impacted, such as ground forces, Gorenburg said. “That will inevitably lead to cuts, or limits at least, in shipbuilding in the future.”
Yet Russia could also funnel more investment into submarines because of their “relative importance” in the face of damage to other areas of the armed forces, Childs suggested.
It is likely to have a delayed impact, however, experts say. The levels of investment submariners have enjoyed is likely to carry the fleets on through the next few years, with squeezes to be felt much further down the line.
“They have set themselves up as a leading submarine power, probably at least for the next 20 years,” Gorenburg said, bearing in mind the previous decade’s investment. After that, “there could certainly be ramifications.”
However, maintaining both the nuclear deterrence submarines, and the underwater vessels protecting them, will always be an absolute priority for Russia, Mertens said.
Source: Ellie Cook, Newsweek, May 3rd 2023