Rapid changes in the international environment require constant monitoring of unfolding developments. The Strategic Monitor 2017-2018, commissioned by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Defence as part of the PROGRESS programme, is brought to you jointly by the The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS) and the Clingendael Institute. The Strategic Monitor 2017-2018 includes Monthly Alerts, Strategic Alerts, Scenario Studies, Trend Reports and the Annual Strategic Monitor Report. The Monthly Alerts will keep you informed on recent and strategic developments through brief synopses and will include references to must-reads that have been published in the previous month by outlets across the world ranging from academic outlets and think tank analysis to leading blogs.
Twiplomacy – Is Trump’s Twitter Addiction Changing Diplomacy?
Trump’s embracement of social media as a communicative platform is widely regarded as a means to circumvent the U.S. media’s traditional role as intermediary between the state and the public. By removing the press from their traditional role, Trump can run his messages – unfiltered – directly to his 26 million Twitter followers. Considered a strength among many of his supporters, to his adversaries this process has tainted the future of digital diplomacy. While this specific case is interesting in its own right, he wider process of ‘disintermediation’ may pose dangerous consequences for the future of diplomacy outside of the United States as well. With the trend expected to rise in the coming months as political infighting leave politicians scrambling for exposure, it becomes increasingly urgent to clearly define the wider implications of Twiplomacy.
Read Diplomacy and President Elect Donald Trump – Indian Council of World Affairs
Read Has Digital Diplomacy Been Trumped? – Open Canada
Read Diplomacy Bots: The Evolution of Digital Relations – Charged Affairs
Read In defence of Donald Trump’s Twitter diplomacy – The Guardian
Political Violence Risk Assessment in March 2017
The most notable countries at heightened risk of political violence in March 2017 as follows: Bangladesh, due to a spike in militant activity and severe political factionalism; Nepal, due to violence erupting in its southern regions; and Cambodia, due to growing civic unrest related to the political assassinations of prominent civil rights figures.
Note: The monitor is an early warning mechanism and does not include countries already engaged in conflict in its analysis. The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies has developed its HCSS Political Violence Risk Assessment Monitor as part of its Strategic Monitor effort. Using both annual structural data and automated, open-source event data the monitor forecasts risk of political violence onset in countries around the world on a monthly basis.
International behavior towards The Netherlands over the past month has been – expectedly – volatile given the recent diplomatic crisis involving Turkey. The above visual demonstrates the changes in the total share of international events involving the Netherlands and a target country throughout the past month. We can see that Turkey has heavily dominated the Netherlands’ international dealings until the end of the month when events largely normalized.
Evolving NATO Partners – Turkey and EU Relations
In a startling break from diplomatic decorum, Turkish state officials have launched a rhetorical offensive towards Germany and The Netherlands, coming off the back of recent political disagreements related to Turkey’s upcoming referendum. With no end in sight, the crisis has developed to the point that Ankara’s wider relationship with the European Union could potentially be endangered. Considering Turkey’s integral role in several important EU measures, such as their role in the stemming the flow of refugees into Europe, as well as their participation in the ongoing Cyprus peace talks, the growing turbulence between the EU and its closest neighbor could have wider implications on Europe as a whole.
Read The Implications of a Turkish “Pivot” After the July 2016 Coup Attempt – The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies
Read Looking Beyond Turkey’s Constitutional Referendum – Carnegie Europe
The French Presidential Elections – A Break With The Past?
The growing influence of the Front National in French politics and the explanations for its success are playing a pivotal role in the upcoming 2017 French elections. Favorable economic and political contexts and a successful rebranding of the party are often emphasized to explain the current situation. However, the role of mainstream parties, and especially those of the two previous failed presidencies, has been largely underestimated. Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron are the pollsters’ favourites to go head-to-head in the second round of the French presidential elections. While they come from different backgrounds, both candidates oppose belonging to an established political “system”. In order to provide a complementary point of view to political, economic and judicial punditry, a linguistic analysis of the candidates’ two programmes based on statistical analysis is included in this alert.
Read The Rise of the Front National: Taking Stock of Ten Years of French Mainstream Politics – The German Marshall Fund of the United States
Read Le Pen and Macron: same words but different meanings – Euronews
German Foreign and Security Policy In The Trump Era
The election of Donald Trump has the potential to radically change the parameters of German foreign policy. The 2% GDP defense spending pledge and Germany’s active role within NATO remain a matter of discussion, in Brussels, Berlin and Washington D.C. A shift in the U.S. foreign policy under President Trump and the upcoming election season in Germany could prove to be an interesting mark in German and US relations as well as domestic political discussion in Germany. The upcoming elections will be a moment to discuss the priorities of Germany’s growing international responsibility in concrete, practical terms. Berlin will have to give a response to the US in terms of increasing defense expenditure and foreign military involvement.
Read The New Parameters of German Foreign Policy – The German Marshall Fund of the United States
Read Germany security policy and the Trump administration: modified rhetoric and moderate commitments – The Centre for Eastern Studies
Read Germany’s New Defense Pragmatism is Not Measured in Euros – War on the Rocks
After Brexit, A New EU Defense and Security Framework in Progress?
The gap between the quest for security of European citizens and resources allocated to defense, as well as the need to build a more balanced transatlantic relation with the US play an integral role in the discussion for enhanced integration in the field of defense among EU member states. The potential defense and security implications of the UK’s decision to leave the European Union will have its impact on the EU’s defense and security discussions for further integration. This month the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) identified positive signs in growing EU defense expenditure identified and published in the first edition of EUISS Security Monthly Stats 2016.
Read Defence and security after Brexit – RAND Europe
Read European defence: action and commitment – Clingendael
Read Playing Defence – Centre for European Reform
Read PESCO: An Ace in the Hand for European Defence – IAI Italy
Read European Defence Statistic 2016 – EUISS
The 60th Anniversary of the Rome Treaties: The European Project at a Crossroads
The developments following the Brexit vote and President Juncker’s White Paper preceding the 60th anniversary of the Rome Treaties have heated up discussions about the future of the European project. The financial crisis in Greece, migratory pressure on the southern borders and security concerns regarding Russia and terrorism are challenging the commitment towards an ‘ever closer union’. On March 25th, the European leaders met in Rome to celebrate the anniversary. In the days leading up to the summit, both Greece and Poland threatened to refuse to sign the declaration, however, no last-minute vetoes were cast. In the final text 27 EU Member States pledge to work towards a ‘stronger and more resilient’ Union and recognize that they must stand together to influence global dynamics and to defend their common interests.
Read The Rome Declaration – An imperfect display of unity – European Policy Centre
Read Filling in the gap of Juncker’s White Paper – Europe’s future in its citizen’s hands – Dahrendorf Forum
Read The closing of the European mind – and how to reopen it – Carnegie Europe
No Peace in the East: North Korea’s Dangerous Clamor for Change
In an unfamiliar era of change, it is a familiar face that stands most prominent among the swarm of rising dangers that today threaten to imperil the global order. To some, North Korea has recently accelerated their efforts to become a viable nuclear threat to its enemies. To others, recent developments come as a result of the United States’ historical inability to reign in the totalitarian regime’s nuclear and missile programs. The recent uptick in conflictual behavior from North Korea has shown that the United States continuing to strengthen its allies in the region while applying gentle pressure on China to respond might no longer be a viable long-term policy. Indeed, North Korea’s recent behavior has shown increasingly aggressive force posturing tendencies. Pyongyang’s behavior might be a power play to disrupt the current status quo in Eastern Asia, which raises the questions: “Where will the world go from here?” and perhaps more importantly, “Who will rise to lead us there?”
Read Using Event Data to Measure Trends in North Korea’s International Behavior – The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies
Read Understanding North Korea’s Nuclear Coercion Strategy – 38 North
Read China Won’t Solve Washington’s Problem with Kim Jong Un – Defense One
Read Using Big Data Analytics To Better Understand Korean Unification – CSIS
Not So Quiet on the European Front?
US President Donald Trump is a newcomer to the presidential office and has not yet publicly laid out a clear policy towards Russia. There is a risk that President Vladimir Putin will seek to take advantage of the current ambiguity in the American stance towards his country. This gives Moscow the ever-important element of surprise. While the assertiveness of the Kremlin might not necessarily mean immediately relying upon military force, and may instead be presented through its popular tools of public disinformation and other subversive tactics, recent Russian force posturing has already shown a willingness to demonstrate the country’s offensive military capabilities. Russia has already targeted Eastern Partnership countries, as well as the volatile Balkans, with aim to undermine support for further westward integration and thereby keep them within a Russian sphere of influence. Needless to say, while these countries remain the most at-risk to Russian efforts today, the Kremlin’s interests are not only limited to these countries, and remains on course towards its long-term strategy to challenge, and ultimately to undermine the rules-based order championed by the west.
Read Where Will Putin Strike Next? Ukraine? Georgia? Belarus? – Newsweek
Read Contested Space: Eastern Europe between Russia and the EU – Centre for European Reform
Read The Road to a Free Europe Goes Through Moscow – Politico
Read How can we protect ourselfs against Russian disinformation – HCSS
Read Strategische Monitor 2017 – Territoriale integriteit – Clingendael
Possible Ways to Solve the Libyan Crisis: Vital Security Reform and U.S. Presence
Although the situation on the ground in Libya has improved since the onset of civil war in 2014, the current dire political landscape of Libya poses a great challenge not only to bordering countries, but also to the U.S. and its allies. The United Nations-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli cannot perform its basic governing functions and is constantly under existential threat from an eastern government faction led by General Haftar, who is supported by Egypt, the UAE and Russia. With the Libyan economy on the verge of total collapse, the Islamic State jihadists – once evicted from the coastal stronghold of Sirte – could seize the opportunity and resume local involvement in exacerbating Libya’s state of chaos, especially as Libya’s hollow security forces have limited control of the current situation.
Read A Trumpian Peace Deal in Libya? – Foreign Affairs
Read Libya After ISIS. How Trump Can Prevent the Next War – Foreign Affairs
Read Institutions not Factions: Libya’s reform of their security sector – Carnegie Middle East Centre
Unravelling the Puzzle: The Ongoing War in Syria
Despite the protracted and intensive nature of the war in Syria, in which the military efforts of both the United States and Russia have come to play a central role, recent developments have for the first time caused the US and Russia to collaborate and adopt a joint tactical stance to fight the Islamic State, leaving their mutual ally Turkey on the side lines. Despite allegations of Russian interference in the US presidential election, US President Donald Trump has shown his willingness to cooperate with Putin on fighting terrorism, as indicated in January when US warplanes indirectly helped Russian-backed Syrian forces to recapture the city of Palmyra. Undoubtedly US military involvement in the wars in Syria and Iraq will be prolonged due to a deepening struggle for control over zones liberated from the Islamic State that are still at high risk. On the other hand, Turkey is alarmed by the US support to the Kurdish-dominated military group the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which is linked to the Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK), an insurgent group that has been in conflict with Turkey for more than three decades, due to their belief that their continued military successes in Syria could strengthen their insurgent activities inside Turkey.
Read With a show of Stars and Stripes, U.S. forces in Syria try to keep warring allies apart – Washington Post
Read De-Conflicting Turkish, Kurdish, and American Aims in Syria – War on the Rocks
Danger on the EU’s Eastern Doorstep: ISIS in the Western Balkans
Often overlooked in favor of their counterparts in Western Europe, European countries in the Balkans have long stood as a ripe target for exploitation at the hands of the Islamic State. Still feeling the effects of historical ethnic strife and political instability, terrorist groups have increasingly latched their tendrils onto at-risk individuals in the area, providing fuel for radicalization processes, and an easy transit route for insurgents to move to war-torn Syria. In addition to recruitment matters, the Balkan states are also attractive to the Islamic State due to the prominence of organized crime groups in the region. Arms smuggling, money laundering, and drug trafficking all augment the terror group’s presence in the region. However, the accuracy and/or degree of importance prescribed to the terrorist threat in the region has been met with some criticism from local experts, problematizing the debate further.
Read Bosnia’s Islamic State Problem – Der Spiegel
Read Experts Scorn Claim that Bosnia is ‘Terrorist Haven’ – Balkan Insight
Read Making a Killing: The €1.2 Billion Arms Pipeline to Middle East – OCCRP
The Emergence of a New Threat: Biotechnology and its Potential Security Implications
Bill Gates has warned world leaders and security officials that rapidly-advancing genetic engineering could be used as a powerful weapon by terrorist organizations. Raising the issue during the Munich Security Conference in February this year, Bill Gates’ link between health security and international security should not be overlooked or ignored. The threat of bioterrorism is very likely to increase over the next 10-15 years and could kill more than 30 million in less than a year. Biological weapons have become accessible for different groups, especially terrorist groups, which make the possibility of an outbreak realistic given that necessary countermeasures are yet to be implemented. Some claim that the threat of biological warfare should be seen as menacing as its nuclear counterpart, emphasizing the world’s need to be prepared to contain epidemics precipitating as a result of biological weapon use.
Read Speech by Bill Gates at the 53rd Munich Security Conference
Read The Increasing Threat of Biological Weapons – The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies
How Can 3D Printing Benefit Terrorist Organizations and Rogue States?
Three-dimensional (3D) printing is one of the latest and most exciting manufacturing technologies that has recently become accessible to everyday users. 3D printing capabilities are rapidly evolving, and have enabled complex plastic and metal component manufacturing to be made cheaper and more accessible. Indeed, 3D printers today are widely available to non-industry users and are sold over the Internet at relatively low cost – typically in the hundreds of euros. 3D printers can produce various products ranging from guitars to guns, from statues to precise mechanical components. However the current trends that have allowed it to become so popular and so easily accessible to use privately at home raise a number of concerning questions for security officials and policymakers today. Should this technology be repurposed for irresponsible purposes by terrorist groups and rogue states such as North Korea, it could be an easy tool to build missiles and other dangerous weapons, and could rapidly accelerate security risks at home.
Read 3D Printing: Bringing Missile Production to a Neighborhood Near You – Nuclear Threat Initiative
Read Is three-dimensional (3D) printing a nuclear proliferation tool? – Non Proliferation Consortium
Bots, Big Data and Election Meddling
Trump’s victory in the US presidential elections has shown us that embracing technology and a “start-up philosophy” in behavioral and campaigning strategies can yield great successes for alternative political movements worldwide. However is prominent technology leader Sam Altman’s labeling of trump as a “Silicon Valley candidate” more than just for show? Indeed, Trump’s rise to prominence might have been facilitated by a widespread automated manipulation of online right-leaning news. Earlier this month, American federal officials launched an investigation into suspected Russian meddling in the U.S. presidential election via the circulation and strategic timing of pro-Trump news alerts on social media networks. The results of the investigation are of great interest to Europe, whose upcoming elections – most notably those of France and Germany – are vulnerable to foreign information manipulation operations.
Read Is social media empowering Dutch populism? – Financial Times
Read How the Bot-y Politic Influenced This Election – Technology Review
Read On the Internet, Nobody Knows You’re a Russian Bot – Council for Foreign Relations
Authors: Karlijn Jans, Nicholas Farnham
Contributor: Tim Sweijs
About Strategic Alerts – Strategic Monitor
Rapid changes in the international environment require constant monitoring to keep up to date with unfolding developments. These developments are analyzed in the context of broader patterns and trends that are identified in the Strategic Monitor, commissioned by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of Defense. Strategic Alerts are part of the Strategic Monitor and can either be directly triggered by real world incidents or crises, or prepared in advance but with their publication timed to coincide with an important event.
Disclaimer
This Report has been commissioned by the Netherlands Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Defence within the PROGRESS framework agreement, lot 5, 2017. Responsibility for the contents and for the opinions expressed rests solely with the authors; publication does not constitute an endorsement by the Netherlands Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Defence.
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