Today, the HCSS Datalab proudly presents the Geopolitical Annual Trade Risk Index (GATRI), a metric developed by HCSS in collaboration with the World Trade Centers Association to quantify the influence of geopolitical developments on global trade. Designed as a practical tool for policymakers and business leaders, GATRI delivers a single, digestible figure that reflects the annual state of geopolitical stability and its impact on international trade dynamics.
GATRI was launched on June 2 by Professor Rob de Wijk and HCSS data scientist Maarten Vonk, during a high-level event with top entrepreneurs at the High Tech Campus in Eindhoven organized by the World Trade Center Netherlands Alliance (WTCNL), the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS), the High Tech Campus and Mikrocentrum.
Watch the explainer video below, or go directly to the GATRI landing page.
In an era in which traditional assumptions about global order no longer hold, GATRI offers a structured way to assess not just the state of the world, but the broader system level forces reshaping the international system. It does so by measuring both the absolute level of geopolitical risk and its volatility—capturing how threatened the system is and how fast it is shifting. The index focuses on the geopolitical climate, rather than reacting to the ‘weather’ of isolated incidents, enabling users to see through the noise and track underlying system dynamics.
GATRI aggregates open-source data across three core domains of global power politics: economic, military, and diplomatic. It includes material indicators like sanctions, military deployments, and trade disruptions, as well as behavioural signals such as diplomatic sentiment and foreign state visits. This multi-domain approach tries to aggregate both the visible actions and the strategic posture shifts that shape the global system over time.
By combining various structured numerical and unstructured textual indicators into a single annual score—indexed to a baseline of 100 in 2024—GATRI provides a yearly snapshot of global geopolitical conditions and relates it to trade. The underlying data is weighted, normalised, and publicly sourced, making the index transparent, verifiable, and accessible. Its strength lies in its dual function: as a high-level risk signal for decision-makers, and as a tool for unpacking the structural shifts driving systemic global instability.
GATRI is updated annually, offering a consistent and comparative reference point over time. An upward shift in the index signals improving geopolitical conditions conducive to trade, while a downward trend indicates rising instability and potential disruptions in the international trade environment.
International trade under pressure in times of geopolitical uncertainty
On Monday, June 2, Professor Rob de Wijk gave a keynote on the geopolitical trends that are increasingly gaining momentum and their consequences for Dutch businesses, at the High Tech Campus in Eindhoven, followed by the official launch of GATRI by HCSS data scientist Maarten Vonk.
Freerk Faber, board member of WTC NL, Europe and World Trade Centers Association, then moderated a high-level panel with industry leaders discussing the risks and opportunities in the new world order, including Gerben Edelijn (Thales Nederland), Peter Berdowski (Boskalis), Maurice Geraets (NXP) and Dirk-Jan Brouwer (Ministry of Economic Affairs).
We invite organizations and governments to discover how GATRI can enhance their strategic planning and decision-making. If you’re interested in accessing the tool or contributing to its development, please reach out to us at datalab@hcss.nl.
Related Content
