The growing conflict of interests and increasing confrontation between the important actors in the world is perhaps the most dominant development of the current era. The ongoing war in Ukraine is on the one level a relatively localized (but extremely deadly) military clash, but on another level a confrontation between the West and Russia, with China looming in the background. It goes without saying that HCSS has looked at both levels, for instance in the studies Lessons from land warfare: One year of war in Ukraine, Hoe moet Rusland worden afgeschrikt and our “What options do small and middle powers have to deter the military threat from Russia and China” paper series. But it is not only the European theatre that is of concern. The Indo-Pacific, where the US-China rivalry is unfolding and Europe has major interests, also continues to receive our close attention (see our Europe in the Indo-Pacific Hub).
The return of great power rivalry also offers room for conflict between medium-sized and smaller players, often on a regional scale. Despite the presence of a Russian peacekeeping force, Azerbaijan managed to capture the Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh. In the Middle East, with Hamas’s attack on Israel and Israel’s retaliation in Gaza, the powder keg has exploded again, albeit for now in the form of a local war (but, again, with a large number of casualties). The Sahel region and sub-Saharan Africa are extremely unstable with a series of coups and destructive conflicts between governments, warlords and militia groups in countries such as Ethiopia and Sudan. The UN has been forced to withdraw from Mali and the French from Niger. And the forecast for the coming years is anything but rosy. In the context of regional instability, the HCSS Climate and Security Programme examines the nexus between the effects of climate change, in particular water stress, and insecurity and conflict.
Military confrontation is just one manifestation of great power rivalry. Economic and technological competition is another. Power thinking and geopolitical considerations increasingly color international trade policy, reflected in increasing mercantilism, zero-sum thinking, tit-for-tat transactional policies and protectionism. And it is inevitable that state interference and influence activities aimed at Western democracies and societies will further increase in the coming years. Hybrid threats against national security, below the level of open armed conflict, will become increasingly the norm, and require active countermeasures (see e.g. our Hybrid Threats paper series). In their most visible form, hybrid actions target vital infrastructure both physically and digitally. In particular, with the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines in September 2022 as a wake-up call, the vulnerability of offshore vital infrastructure, e.g. in the North Sea, has come under the spotlight, with HCSS having a clear contribution in the debate (see e.g. here).
In short, global instability directly impacts the Netherlands and Europe. With the Ukraine war and the economic rivalry with China, the Netherlands has clearly linked security and industry policy in the Sectoragenda Maritieme Maakindustrie, firmly underpinned by the HCSS study De Strategische Belangen van de Nederlandse Maritieme Maakindustrie. But the impact is not only felt at state level. Over the past few years, geopolitics and geo-economics have become top agenda items in the boardrooms of internationally operating companies. For HCSS, this tendency has manifested itself in a growing interest from the private sector in our interpretation of where we stand and are heading in a volatile global security environment, culminating in the HCSS Boardroom initiative.
The surge in energy costs, the influx of Ukrainian refugees and the trade restrictions for e.g. ASML are examples of how the global security environment affects our daily lives. With our expanding network of national and international knowledge partners, HCSS is well equipped to serve our broadening portfolio of customers to orientate and navigate in this complex and increasingly dangerous world.
Frank Bekkers, Director of the Security Programme
Experts
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