On Wednesday, March 29, The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS) together with the War Studies Research Centre (WSRC) hosted a closed expert meeting with Professor Stephan Frühling and a group of high-level policymakers and experts on the evolution of alliance dynamics in the Indo-Pacific and the role of integrated deterrence therein: how is it changing and what are the implications for the future stability of the region.
Professor Stephan Frühling researches and teaches at the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre at the Australian National University, and has widely published on Australian defence policy, defence planning and strategy, nuclear weapons and NATO.
Following an introduction by HCSS director of research Tim Sweijs, Professor Frühling highlighted the rapidly transforming nature of Indo-Pacific alliances, and their implications for Europe. The US alliances of Indo-Pacific states, most notably Australia and Japan, used to have a clear “division of labour”, in which the former two focussed on their territorial defence, while the latter took care of regional power projection and thus took sole responsibility for regional deterrence in Northeast Asia. This is no longer the case.
While the formation of dedicated US-allied deterrence dialogues dates back more than a decade, over the last year and a half, “the speed of adaptation is visibly picking up” in US-Japan and US-Australia alliance in particular, Professor Frühling continued in his keynote contribution. The U.S. alliances with Japan and Australia are increasingly seen through a “deterrence prism”, resulting in explicit discussions about force posture integration, and breaking down the old division of labour. Consequently, the developments of recent years have ushered in a new era in which deterrence in the Indo-Pacific is now starting to become integrated in alliance postures through incremental steps in force integration and policy coordination.
For Australia, this changing dynamic encompasses a greater role in supporting deterrence in Northeast Asia. According to Frühling, in order to guarantee the long-term national security of Australia, it is vital for Canberra that the American alliances in this region hold firm. For this reason, Australia is increasingly willing to engage in burden-sharing with Indo-Pacific allies.
In turn, for Europe these new alliance dynamics have important implications as well. As deterrence is moving from the national to the alliance level, the concept of integrated deterrence is gaining traction in Tokyo and Canberra. For Australia, defence-industrial integration is a key aspect of this integrated deterrence. On the European role in the Indo-Pacific theatre, Professor Frühling noted that “as Europe starts to develop again to become a defence-industrial powerhouse, especially in munitions production, this offers new opportunities to contribute to integrated deterrence in the Indo-Pacific as well”.
To find out more about HCSS work and research on the deterrence, please visit the “Strategic Stability: Deterrence and Arms Control” landing page, and on the Indo-Pacific, visit the Europe in the Indo-Pacific Hub (EIPH).
To find out more about HCSS work and research on the deterrence, please visit the “Strategic Stability: Deterrence and Arms Control” landing page, and on the Indo-Pacific, visit the Europe in the Indo-Pacific Hub (EIPH).
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