Because of Trump, not only Europe but also India has run into trouble. What support can India expect from America if things go wrong in a part of the world through which the main trade routes pass? Probably very little.
The loss of trust in America was already evident in India when Trump imposed additional tariffs on the country because of its imports of Russian oil. Export duties on goods to the United States were suddenly raised to fifty percent. In response, Prime Minister Modi traveled to China, where he strengthened ties with Xi. This was remarkable, since as recently as 2022 India and China were still engaged in a border skirmish. Yet now Modi and Xi speak of a “partnership,” although it is difficult to give real substance to that term given China’s highly competitive stance.
Trump’s swift withdrawal of the additional tariffs could not undo the damage. As in the EU, the conclusion in India was that the relationship with America had changed structurally. Because of Trump’s fixation on China and the Western Hemisphere, Europe and India hardly seem to matter anymore.
So new partnerships must be forged. The one between the economic giants EU and India is undoubtedly the most interesting.
For the EU, new partnerships take the form of trade agreements. After Mercosur came the agreement with India. A treaty with Australia will follow. For the EU, this is a familiar approach.
For India, however, the trade agreement is a game changer. The country is fairly protectionist and cooperates relatively little with foreign partners in the military sphere.
Moreover, India has pursued a policy of non-alignment for decades. Delhi sought good relations with both the West and the Soviet Union. That course seemed to be reaffirmed after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. Even then, Delhi did not want to choose between Russia and the West. But because of Trump, this approach no longer works.
That is why India is now supplementing its policy of neutrality and non-alignment with power politics to organize a counterweight to America. New partners must therefore be found. That amounts to nothing less than a small revolution.
Last weekend in New Delhi, I heard a senior Indian official say that we may soon no longer need to speak of the Indo-Pacific, but of the “Euro-Pacific,” as a counterweight to America and even to China.
The mood in Delhi was optimistic, because such a partnership offers enormous advantages. India is growing rapidly. By around 2030, it will be the world’s third-largest economy. India needs markets for its goods, and the same applies to Europe. The trade agreement could relatively quickly lead to a doubling of exports to India.
When it comes to defense cooperation, the possibilities are substantial. There is a shared interest in protecting trade routes through the Indo-Pacific, especially if the Americans continue their withdrawal.
I saw great enthusiasm for jointly developing weapons and military equipment. This would give the EU greater autonomy vis-à-vis America, while allowing India to increase its exports.
It may be too early for a true “Euro-Pacific,” but the EU’s trade agreement with India clearly shows that, spurred on by Trump, global power relations are changing at high speed.
Experts
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