According to the Russian government spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, whoever bows to Trump will keep on bowing. European government leaders appear to share Peskov’s conclusion. This became clear last week when they defused the Greenland crisis by threatening economic retaliation if Trump were to actually seize the territory.
Precisely for that reason, NATO Secretary General Rutte was sharply rebuked by allies this week over his “daddy diplomacy.” “Trump is not my daddy,” responded Charles Michel, the former President of the European Council.
Rutte was also taken to task over his remark that Europe cannot do without the Americans. According to him, defense budgets would then have to rise to 10 percent of GDP.
I understand Rutte. He has to keep NATO together. If America withdraws, he will get the blame.
Yet a number of allies appear to be reckoning with a separation. The French foreign minister was outspoken: Europe must take charge of its own security. The Spanish Member of the European Parliament Sánchez Amor wondered whether Rutte had not become the American ambassador to NATO.
Politicians must acknowledge that we are in the midst of a transatlantic divorce, but they find it harder to accept than I do. That is understandable. They—not I—are the ones who will have to clean up the mess of the separation.
That we are in a divorce was also evident from the recent American defense strategy. Telling is the comparison of the GDP of NATO member states without the US versus Russia: 26 versus 2 trillion dollars. Conclusion: Europeans can defend themselves. If Europeans can do that, America and Europe no longer need each other. That is why Europe must prepare for a NATO without America.
To me it is crystal clear that in the short term we can continue militarily without America. It is a matter of will. But time is running out.
Danish Prime Minister Frederiksen asked in Berlin how long America can still be an ally. That is a legitimate question.
Why should one keep a proper distance from ideological adversaries such as Russia and China, but not from America?
It is painful to have to conclude that America is ideologically drifting away from us because Trump has traits reminiscent of the Italian fascist leader Mussolini. Like Trump, he saw himself as an infallible, totalitarian leader. Like Mussolini, Trump is extremely nationalist, anti-democratic, and anti-liberal. Like Mussolini, Trump is imperialist. The equivalent of Mussolini’s corporatism is the kleptocracy that Trump forms together with the tech companies. Autarky is also the goal under Trump. ICE is emerging as the equivalent of Mussolini’s Blackshirts, cracking down hard on political opponents. See Minneapolis.
The direct consequence is that Europe is also economically disentangling itself from the US, without severing ties completely. The trade agreement the EU concluded with India this week is a step forward. More agreements will follow.
Whether Trump will accept this remains to be seen. This means that Europe must scale down the relationship while simultaneously threatening devastating import restrictions if Trump seeks to prevent this. He can do so through additional tariffs, by halting exports of LNG, or by cutting off our access to American data centers.
This requires recognition that the world is fragmenting, a clear strategy, and greater European unity and leadership, both at the European and national levels.
If that does not happen, Peskov will be proven right.
Experts
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