Until now, European leaders have done their best to take over America’s support for Ukraine following President Trump’s return to office, while devising plans for economic reforms and the reconstruction of their armed forces.
But the riots taking place in Spain, Albania, Italy and France, combined with the growing electoral fever in these countries and the fact that Chancellor Merz’s political future is far from secure, suggest that EU citizens are in for a rough ride.
The riots point to a breakdown of the social contract because of the failure of the welfare state. The EU accounts for an estimated 5.5 per cent of the world’s population yet consumes roughly half of all social spending worldwide. That is a wonderful achievement, as long as the money holds out. But for many years, successive governments have bought off the discontent that emerged during the financial crisis of 2008, the Covid-19 pandemic of 2020, the energy crisis of 2021 and the cost-of-living and inflation crisis of 2022. The result has been spiraling public debt, particularly in France. Nothing has been resolved.
Once again, measures are being introduced to cushion the impact of high petrol prices. But buying off discontent no longer works. France’s debt burden is unsustainable. Every future president will have to find a solution for a country that is all but bankrupt.
France’s predicament is an exaggerated version of a problem facing Europe as a whole. Moderate politicians who want to keep a tight rein on public spending are punished at the ballot box. Populists promise not to change, but tax cuts and relief from the financial burden on households. The problem is that the money simply is not there. Marine Le Pen knows this too. She, too, will find herself up against the financial markets.
She also knows that Europe’s security is deteriorating and that increased defense spending inevitably comes at the expense of the welfare state. But for populists, power is an end in itself. Just look at Trump and, in his day, Orbán. That is why they embrace fake news and disinformation. In France, for example, the riots are blamed on mass migration and Islam.
The consequences are far-reaching. If we do nothing, we are heading towards a financial crisis and potentially even war. The latter is precisely what populists, with the unwitting support of their electorates, risk bringing about. Many of them are effectively aligned with Putin. Trump, their ideological ally, has made the implications clear. He believes Putin has behaved ‘very well’ towards Ukraine, wants Zelensky to step down and insists that he strike a deal. But an unjust peace will solve nothing. That is precisely why the Second World War followed the First.
Populists are also generally opposed to higher defense spending. Germany’s AfD is the most explicit on this point. Le Pen wants to scale back support for Ukraine.
This is the kind of appeasement that Europe has learned, at great cost, to distrust. It is nothing less than naive wishful thinking. Putin has made it clear far too many times that he wants to restore the borders of the former Soviet Union—or, better still, those of the Russian Empire.
After Trump threw Ukraine under the bus, the rise of populism threatens to leave the Baltic states under the bus as well.
Perhaps centrist European politicians should stop being so afraid of the electorate and explain more clearly that the welfare state is becoming unsustainable, and that freedom and security come at a price.
Source, Trouw, 22 oktober 2026
Experts
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