New publication | No Bang for Buck: Exploring the Heterogeneous Relationships Between Official Development Assistance and Intrastate Conflict Casualties
What determines whether Official Development Assistance (ODA) can reduce casualties in intrastate conflicts? In the newly published master’s thesis, HCSS Data Scientist Emma Bokel examines 156 countries between 1989 and 2022 using Dynamic Panel GMM and a Causal Forest model to assess both average effects and underlying heterogeneity. The study finds that ODA does not reliably reduce conflict deaths on average, with a persistent “conflict trap” driven by prior-year fatalities. Instead, effectiveness depends on four key conditions: political stability, aid fragmentation, delivery channel, and purpose-specific aid dynamics, leading to policy recommendations emphasising context-sensitive allocation, multilateral delivery in fragile settings, and prevention over de-escalation.
Irina Patrahau | ARES Group on defence supply chain monitoring
Rising military tensions, trade disputes, and shifting global power dynamics are increasing pressure on defence supply chains, exposing vulnerabilities ranging from critical raw material shortages to restrictions on strategic components. In a recent commentary for the ARES Group, Irina Patrahau argues that the growing emphasis on supply chain monitoring presents an opportunity not only to strengthen security and resilience, but also to improve sustainability reporting.
Tim Sweijs | 7 inzichten uit Oekraïne, Eurosatory en Fighter Lion
Vorige week bezocht HCSS onderzoeksdirecteur Tim Sweijs de defensiebeurs Eurosatory in Parijs, een van de grootste internationale evenementen op het gebied van defensie en veiligheid, waar fabrikanten hun nieuwste technologieën presenteerden. Aansluitend reisde hij door naar Duitsland voor de grootschalige militaire oefening Fighter Lion, waar hij gesprekken voerde met Nederlandse landmacht militairen op verschillende niveaus. Daarnaast publiceerde hij een nieuwe HCSS-studie "Lessons That Transfer: Observations from the Russo-Ukrainian War for European Land Forces", waarin wordt onderzocht welke ontwikkelingen Europese landstrijdkrachten serieus moeten nemen in de komende drie tot vijf jaar.
