Whether lying on the beach or taking a long flight, summer is the perfect season to crack open a new book. In our latest edition of the HCSS Bookshelf, strategic analysts and assistant analysts offer their favorite picks for the season to help get you up to speed on the latest global trends and most pressing geopolitical issues. With suggestions ranging from the newest must-reads to modern classics with newfound relevance, these books are sure to increase your knowledge of the world and keep you reading all summer long.

Rob de Wijk - Director

   

How Democracies Die (Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt, 2018)

Not only is the nature of the international system changing due to global power shifts, but the possibility of dying democracies could have further destructive effects as well. Levtsy and Ziblad explain that democracies can die with a coup d’etat or fade out slowly, which happens when an elected authoritarian leader abuses his powers. The authors argue that with the election of President Trump, this could happen to the United States as well.   

The New Digital Age (Eric Schmidt and Jared Cohen, 2013)

Though not new, this book is still among the best on the impact of new technology, such as artificial intelligence, which IR scholars believe will have tremendous impact on the future of states, democracy, terrorism, the armed forces, and even revolution itself. Moreover, in the next decade, billions of new people will be connected to the Internet. Schmidt and Cohen explain the new opportunities and dangers of these developments.

Paul Sinning - Executive Director

War by Other Means: Geoeconomics and Statecraft (Robert D. Blackwill, Jennifer M. Harris, 2016)

The US has to shift its attention to an old discipline—the art of geoeconomics. This book not only provides an overview of geoeconomic instruments, but also outlines why the combination of ‘soft’ geoeconomic strategies and ‘hard’ military power are essential preconditions for an effective foreign policy. Mandatory reading for political leaders in Europe as well!

Michel Rademaker - Deputy Director, Market and Operations

Why Nations Fail (Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson, 2012).

“It’s about national income differences within the modern world, perhaps the biggest problem facing the world today. It’s peppered with fascinating stories that will make you a spellbinder at cocktail parties—such as why Botswana is prospering and Sierra Leone isn’t. And it’s a great read. Like me, you may succumb to reading it in one go, and then you may come back to it again and again.” -  Jared Diamond, Pulitzer Prize–winning author of the bestsellers Guns, Germs, and Steel and Collapse.

Frank Bekkers - Director, Security Program

Scale: The Universal Laws of Growth, Innovation, Sustainability, and the Pace of Life in Organisms, Cities, Economies, and Companies (Geoffrey West, 2017)

“From one of the most influential scientists of our time, a dazzling exploration of the hidden laws that govern the life cycle of everything from plants and animals to the cities we live in. Visionary physicist Geoffrey West is a pioneer in the field of complexity science, the science of emergent systems and networks. The term 'complexity' can be misleading, however, because what makes West’s discoveries so beautiful is that he has found an underlying simplicity that unites the seemingly complex and diverse phenomena of living systems, including our bodies, our cities and our businesses.” (Penguin Random House Synopsis).

Tim Sweijs - Director Research

The Causes of War and the Spread of Peace: But Will War Rebound? (Azar Gat, 2017

Over a decade after his magnitudinous War in Human Civilization, Israeli military historian Azar Gat, re-examines why people and states warre. Gat explains that war in fact has declined over time, but also warns that the causes of war have certainly not withered away. The breadth and depth of his analysis is once again impressive.

Stephan De Spiegeleire - Senior Analyst

Testing the Value of the Postwar International Order (Free PDF) (RAND; Michael J. Mazarr, Ashley L. Rhoades, 2018)

U.S. President Trump’s antics may lead many of us to forget that there remains a solid consensus in the more mainstream US foreign and security policy community in favor of a global multilateral international order. This RAND report provides a hard-nosed value-for-money analysis of how this order has benefited U.S. interests and objectives. The policy analytical world—also in Europe—has to find better ways to bring this message home.

Search: How the Data Explosion Makes Us Smarter (Stefan Weitz, 2016)

High-quality policy analysis is supposed to be based on validated evidence and knowledge. These are, alas, rare commodities in the fields of foreign, security and defense policy in which HCSS works. Unbeknownst to most, however, is that major players like Google, Microsoft, IBM and others have been building (and validating) massive knowledge graphs that are starting to methodically ‘decode’ and structure the knowledge that humans have ‘encoded’ in articles, books, and datasets—but also in the digital exhaust all of us increasingly leave across data servers. Regrettably little is known about these unprecedented efforts, but in this book Stefan Weitz, the former Director of Search at Microsoft, gives us a rare glimpse into how ‘search’ is no longer just about giving us answers to our questions, but about making ‘digital’ knowledge actionable in the ‘physical’ world as well.

Willem Oosterveld - Strategic Analyst

Alexander Bevilacqua, The Republic of Arabic Letters: Islam and the European Enlightenment (Alexander Bevilacqua, 2018)

One more antidote against the idea that there is an innate distinction between East and West. While the likes of Edward Said (of ‘Orientalism’ fame) put scholars such as d’Herbelot and Erpenius in the dock for peddling implicit notions about Western superiority over the East—mostly the Ottoman-dominated Middle East—Bevilacqua actually shows that early scholars of Middle Eastern languages and culture were interested in deepening understanding and promoting cultural exchange instead. He also highlights the Dutch tradition in this field, discussing the contributions of 17th-century scholars Erpenius and Golius, among others in Leiden, which had established the first chair ever in Europe dedicated to Arabic letters. Poignantly, as reviewer Robert Irwin noted in another review, the name of Said does not appear in the book at all.

The Dawn of Eurasia (Bruno Macaes, 2018)

A travelogue-cum-political analysis of how the borderlands between Europe and Asia are evolving as power is shifting (back) towards the East. A former Portuguese cabinet official, Macaes travels the Caucasus, Central Asia and China in order to get a sense of how the world’s largest landmass is becoming ever more interconnected. A nice companion to John Darwin’s After Tamerlane and Colin Thubron’s Shadows of the Silk Road.

Karlijn Jans - Strategic Analyst

Führungsmacht Deutschland (Jan Techau and Leon Mangasarian, 2017) [In German]

If you would like to understand Germany’s awkward leadership role in present times, this is an absolute must read. With a transatlantic relationship becoming more strained and Germany taking center stage in many policy and political discussions, it is key to understand its position—something the authors meticulously describe. A leading role runs contrary to the country's self-image and to a culture of restraint that emerged from the catastrophe of World War II. The book’s central question: how can Germany assume more leadership responsibility without frightening itself and others? A difficult question to answer.

To End a War (Richard Holbrooke, 1998)

A classic, now 20 years since its first edition, To End A War is a first-hand account by the late Richard Holbrooke, former assistant secretary of state and architect of the Dayton Agreement, on his efforts to bring about an end to the war in Bosnia. The book offers a fascinating look behind the scenes of the perilous diplomatic negotiations that brought peace to the Balkans after a complex and bloody conflict. Many of the lessons learned during that period ring true in 2018.

Reinier Bergema - Strategic Analyst

Sultan en de lokroep van de jihad [In Dutch] (Johan van de Beek & Claire van Dyck, 2017)

While the Islamic State piled up one military victory after another, their appeal to Westerners increasingly grew. Sultan en de lokroep van de jihad, authored by Johan van de Beek and Claire van Dyck, sheds light on the lives of four Dutch citizens who decided to pack their bags and travel to Syria and Iraq. The book, named after one of the main characters who reportedly carried out a suicide attack in Baghdad, demonstrates the complexity and intangibility of radicalization processes, and offers an impressive, in-depth insight into the lives of four seemingly unremarkable people who joined one of the most violent terrorist organizations of our time.

Jihadi Culture: The Art and Social Practices of Militant Islamists (Thomas Hegghammer, 2017)

Jihadi Culture: The Art and Social Practices of Militant Islamists, edited by Thomas Hegghammer, discusses the important but underexposed soft, cultural dimension of jihadism. The book examines, among other things, the strategic importance of jihadist anasheeds (i.e., Islamic vocal music), the role of poetry in jihadi subculture, and jihadi cinematography. Understanding this cultural dimension is crucial to understanding the overall appeal of and social cohesion within such violent terrorist organizations.

Katarina Kertysova - Strategic Analyst
Louk Faesen - Strategic Analyst

Nothing Is True and Everything Is Possible (Peter Pomerantsev, 2017)

This book offers a captivating insight into political, social and economic challenges facing Russia today. Part reportage and part memoir, the book tells the story of modern Russia through the lens of a knowing outsider, a Soviet-born British journalist, working for a network called TNT. Political intrigues, state control of the media, corruption, an iniquitous justice system, military service—each chapter offers a fascinating and entertaining (albeit tragic and disturbing) story. Of particular relevance is Pomerantsev’s exposure of the inner workings of Russia's government and the influence Kremlin holds over the media. This is a must-read for anyone seeking to understand Putin’s Russia.

Katarina Kertysova - Strategic Analyst
Noah Wanebo - Assistant Analyst

The Future is History: How Totalitarianism Reclaimed Russia (Masha Gessen, 2017)

In her latest book, Russian-American journalist and activist Masha Gessen provides a narrative of the USSR’s collapse and Russia’s failure to reform and build democracy. The book tells Russia’s story through the eyes of several protagonists who were born on the eve of Gorbachev’s reforms, lived most of their lives under Putin, and have experienced Russia’s return to a heavy-handed state. As the subtitle of the book suggests, the author believes that totalitarianism—albeit muted and less extreme—has reclaimed the country. Although this conclusion may not convince all readers, her case that ‘Homo Sovieticus,' created a century ago with the Bolshevik revolution, did not die out with the Soviet Union is convincing.

Jan Frederik Braun - Strategic Analyst

The Geopolitics of Renewables (Daniel Scholten, 2018)

The geographic and technical characteristics of renewable systems are significantly different from those of fossil fuels. As a result, the global transition to renewables represents a game changer for interstate relations. Edited by Dr. Daniel Scholten, an Assistant Professor at the TU Delft, this book investigates how the characteristics of renewables reshape energy relations in terms of cooperation and conflict on global, regional and bilateral levels. This book is an essential starting point for academics and practitioners to investigate this increasingly important topic.

Windfall: How the New Energy Abundance Upends Global Politics and Strengthens America’s Power (Meghan L. O'Sullivan, 2017)

The current global energy transition is as much about renewables like wind and solar power as about how the oil and gas sector itself is changing. The shale revolution (i.e. the widespread ability to extract shale gas through hydraulic fracturing of rock or ‘fracking’) has moved the United States from being ‘addicted to oil’ to one of the world’s biggest oil producers and net exporter of natural gas. Meghan O’Sullivan, a professor at the Harvard Kennedy School, argues that America’s new energy abundance not only strengthens the US economy, but has also redefined the geopolitics of energy—the impact of energy flows on the power and influence of both producer and consumer nations. A riveting read!

Paul Verhagen - Associate Data Analyst

The Silk Roads (Peter Frankopan, 2015)

A detailed study of the Silk Roads, their origins, and the ideas, commodities and religions that flowed across them. This topic remains relevant for modern readers, as it is one of the oldest examples of globalization and its implications.

World Order (Henry Kissinger, 2014)

This books is as close to a brief history of international relations as one can get. Do you need to relate the relevance of the Syrian conflict to the League of Nations vis-a-vis the Treaty of Westphalia? This book has you covered for all of that, and more.

House of the Mosque (Kader Abdolah, 2005)

This book is a partially fictional account of a family living through the fall of the Shah, the rise of the Ayatollahs and the social disruptions that everyday Iranians experienced. By depicting the human side of modern Iranian history, it offers a different perspective on an increasingly relevant global actor.

Eric Wilms - Strategic Analyst

In America: Travels with John Steinbeck (Geert Mak, 2014)

“In 1960 John Steinbeck and his dog Charley set out in their green GMC pickup truck to rediscover the soul of America, visiting small towns and cities from New York to New Orleans. [...] Half a century on, Geert Mak retraces Steinbeck's footsteps through the potato fields of Maine to the endless prairies of the Midwest, sits down to eat with farmers, workers, fisherman and teachers, stumbles across glistening suburbs and boarded-up stores, he searches for the roots of America and what remains of the restless, prosperous world Steinbeck describes. Part biography, part cultural history, In America asks how America has changed in the last 50 years; what's happened to Main Street, USA, and the American dream; and what do we, Europe and America, still have in common in the twenty-first century?” You can read the rest of this publisher's synopsis here.

The Vertigo years: 1900-1914  (Philipp Blom, 2009)

“Blom’s engrossing history begins with an invitation: ‘Imagine yourself looking at the years 1900 to 1914 without the long shadows of the future darkening their historical present.’ His imaginative re-creation of this period argues that speed—both literal and figurative—came to typify and, ultimately, define modern life. This was the age that gave rise not only to Futurism and Vorticism but also to car racing and the electric chair. Precipitate change also ushered in an age of uncertainty and attraction to the seeming stability of the past. The book’s strength is also its charm—a multifaceted, panoramic approach animated by vivacious narration of individual stories, such as that of Eugene Sandow, the wildly popular Prussian bodybuilder and pioneering fitness mogul who counted George V and Sir Arthur Conan Doyle among his friends.” (Read the rest of the New Yorker Review here).

Lucie Kattenbroek - Assistant Analyst

The Corpse Exhibition (Hassan Blasim, 2014)

Blasim’s collection of stories, rarely longer than ten pages, is magnificent in the paradox of literary tones. As an Iraqi writer in the aftermath of the 2003 war, his writing shows only indirectly the influence of war on a society. The stories and fables in this book reminds us once again that war never stays confined to the battlefield. Definitely not for the faint of heart.

Eline Wildöer - Assistant Analyst

This Changes Everything: Capitalism vs. The Climate (Naomi Klein, 2015)

This thought-provoking and meticulously written New York Times bestseller focuses on an unusual hypothesis: climate change, one of the most pressing challenges of our time, cannot be tackled by societies that are guided by neoliberal market fundamentalism. Whether you agree with the author or not, her work, which uncovers and dismantles climate practices and which combines politics, science, economics and psychology, is certainly worth a read.

Noah Wanebo - Assistant Analyst

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (Philip E. Tetlock & Dan Gardner, 2015) 

Released in 2015, this book's relevance has only grown following a string of political upsets that stunned observers across the West, including Brexit and the election of Donald Trump. Written in part to clarify arguments in Tetlock's previous book, Expert Political Judgement, which asserted that experts are no better at predicting events than dart-throwing chimps, Superforecasting examines the ways in which—and the extent to which—accurate forecasting can take place. The book centers around data gathered in the Good Judgement Project, an online prediction challenge funded by the US intelligence community, with Tetlock and Gardner exploring the strategies and best practices of the so-called “superforecasters” that emerged in the study. The authors then distill their best strategies down into the so-called “Ten Commandments”—common-sense advice for predicting events that analysts in any field ought to bear in mind.

Mihailo Jovetic - Assistant Analyst

Nuclear Deterrence in the 21st Century: Lessons from the Cold War for a New Era of Strategic Piracy (Free PDF) (Thérèse Delpech, 2012)

A modern-day take on deterrence issues and challenges that have been extensively discussed in the last century by the likes of Schelling, Halperin and Freedman. Accessible and well-structured, the book gives a conceptual, historical, and forecasting overview of everything related to nuclear strategy.

Kristina Tranakieva - Assistant Analyst

The Social Order of the Underworld: How Prison Gangs Govern the American Penal System (David Skarbek, 2014)

Skarbek's book is an illustration of the natural experiment that he argues occurs in the American prison system in which people exist in a lawless state and have to construct their own governance through extensive norms and rules in order to survive (and facilitate business). His rational choice-focused analysis provides an in-depth understanding of the foundations of any illicit organization, beyond the gangs he introduces. For a similar analysis but on drug cartels, also consider Narconomics by Tom Wainwright.

Lotte de Jong - Assistant Analyst

The Looting Machine (Tom Burgis, 2015)

Based on his experiences travelling through Africa as a reporter for the Financial Times, Burgis gives great insight into the on-the-ground dynamics of the infamous “resources curse.” By telling the stories of colourful but dubious characters from all over the world, he explains how corrupt regimes, together with Western corporations and investment bankers, have successfully deprived resource-rich African countries of their economic potential. In addition to this more historical account, the story of the Chinese businessman Sam Pa provides a better understanding of the controversy of Chinese investments in Africa today.

Out of the Mountains: the Coming Age of the Urban Guerrilla (David Kilcullen, 2013)

Through numerous case studies, Out of the Mountains offers thought-provoking insight into the future of conflict. Population growth, urbanisation, and ever increasing connectivity between populations are some of the most important factors changing the dynamics of societies today. Combining tactical understanding from operations on the ground with insight into the policy and strategy decisions made at the highest levels of government, Kilcullen provides an interesting perspective on how these dynamics will shape conflicts in the megacities of tomorrow.

Matt Phillips - Assistant Analyst

Prisoners of Geography (Tim Marshall, 2015)

This book forces you to question your current understanding of geopolitics by focusing on the 'geo'. Marshall puts forth an explanation of current international relations and national interests through a geographical lens, which is often overlooked in the modern interconnected and technological world. The book is engaging and well-written, and leaves you feeling not only more informed, but better able to analyse global events through this important geographical lens.

The Dutch government is about to reach a general agreement on an ambitious national climate accord. This accord is designed to prepare the Netherlands for a greenhouse gas emission reduction of at least 49% by 2030.

Read the Policy Comment on the Dutch ambitions by Strategic Analyst Jan Frederik Braun and Strategic Advisor Lucia van Geuns. This first publication in the HCSS Energy Transition Program paper series argues that effective decarbonization at home requires cross-border climate action from both companies and government.

Click here to download the paper.

Some members of the Global Commission on the Stability of Cyberspace (GCSC) will meet during Israel’s Cyber Week in Tel Aviv from 17-21 June.

This informal, consultative meeting will build on the results of the last meeting in Bratislava, during which the Commission proposed a norm prohibiting cyber disruptions of technical infrastructure that supports elections. The Commissioners present in Tel Aviv will engage with key stakeholders on the Commission’s current and future work including norms on:

• Barring the insertion of vulnerabilities into essential cyberspace products and services
   
• Advocating for governments to actively consider disclosing software and hardware vulnerabilities to vendors
   
• Further defining the elements of the public core of the Internet

In preparation for the upcoming meeting in Singapore, Commissioners will also explore norms related to private sector cybersecurity practices and the creation of a mechanism for further developing the international cyber security architecture.

Several Commissioners will also participate during the ongoing Cyber Week. Chair Marina Kaljurand will speak at the Cyber Leaders Forum and a fireside chat on norms of behavior in cyberspace, while Co-chair Latha Reddy will deliver a plenary speech on shaking up defense strategies. Jim Lewis will discuss the future of great power cyber conflicts. Alexander Klimburg will be speaking on a panel on emerging technologies in great power competition. Joseph Nye will speak at several sessions on topics including fake news, evolving norms in cyber conflict, and U.S.-China competition. Isaac Ben-Israel is one of the hosts of Israel’s Cyber Week and will moderate a number of sessions.

After Tel Aviv, the next full Commission meeting will take place on September 19-20 in Singapore in the margins of Singapore International Cyber Week.

De mislukte G7 van afgelopen weekeinde maakte duidelijk dat president Trump volop bezig is met de afbraak van de wereldorde die zijn voorgangers hebben geschapen en die Amerika rijk en machtig heeft gemaakt. 

Daarom keek ik reikhalzend uit naar premier Rutte's speech voor het Europees parlement. Normaal gesproken trekken gelijkgestemde landen naar elkaar toe als de buitenwereld ruiger wordt. En ja hoor, ook Rutte omarmt de Unie nu volop. Natuurlijk wel op zijn Nederlands, door te pleiten voor een zuinige Unie met beperkte taken.

Er is inderdaad geen alternatief voor de huidige liberale wereldorde die gebaseerd is op regels, vrije markteconomie, democratie en waarden als mensenrechten.

Kleptocraten 

Als we Trump zijn gang laten gaan wordt de wereld gedomineerd door autoritaire kleptocraten die zich door cynisch eigenbelang laten leiden, hun zakken vullen en zeggen namens het volk te spreken, maar hun armoede verachten. Veelzeggend is het feit dat deze week bekend werd dat Trumps dochter en schoonzoon, ondanks hun banen op het Witte Huis, in 2017 ruim 80 miljoen dollar aan hun investeringen verdienden.

Voor Trump geldt feitelijk hetzelfde, al was het alleen maar omdat iedereen die wat van hem wil het uit zijn hoofd laat om niet in een van zijn hotels te overnachten.

Art of the deal

Nadat hij de G7 had laten mislukken richtte Trump zich op zijn echte prioriteit. Na Saoedi-Arabië omarmde hij Noord-Korea en tekende hij een 'alomvattende' verklaring met zijn nieuwe beste vriend Kim Jong-un. Voor iemand die naar eigen zeggen nauwelijks leest is een kantje A4 al snel 'alomvattend'. Maar in werkelijkheid stond er weinig in. De Amerikaanse veiligheidsgaranties waarover het document repte waren al in 1993 door een van zijn voorgangers afgegeven.

En de gezamenlijke verklaring van het zespartijenoverleg over Noord-Korea uit 2005 bevatte al een hele serie afspraken, van nucleaire ontwapening tot economische samenwerking. Die afspraken waren echt 'alomvattend'. Maar Noord-Korea zette er vanwege 'Amerikaanse vijandelijkheden' toen een streep door. In 2006 ontplofte de eerste atoombom.

Als de verklaring van Trump en Kim het resultaat van the art of the deal is waarover de president zo graag opschept, dan vraag ik mij af hoe hij ooit rijk kon worden.

Ongemakkelijke spagaat

Want hij liet Kim winnen. Hij houdt zijn kernwapens en raketten, en kreeg het voor elkaar dat Amerika stopt met de jaarlijkse oefeningen met Zuid-Korea die door hem altijd als de opmaat voor een interventie werden gezien. En door het opschorten van die oefeningen voelen Amerika's bondgenoten zich nu onveiliger.

Het meest historische van deze ontmoeting is voorlopig dat een Amerikaanse president zich voor de eerste keer in het pak heeft laten naaien door een wrede snotneus die zijn volk als slaven behandelt. Het historische kan uitsluitend worden afgemeten aan wat het vervolgtraject gaat opleveren.

Maar dan zullen beide partijen uit een ongemakkelijke spagaat moeten komen. Denuclearisatie in ruil voor een vredesakkoord en opheffen van de sancties. Kim hoeft maar naar Oekraïne te kijken om te begrijpen wat het betekent als hij de eerste stap zet. Na denuclearisatie werd dat land de speelbal van Rusland. Kim is wreed, maar niet stom.

De column van Rob de Wijk verschijnt wekelijks in Trouw.

Photo by Prachatai on Foter.com / CC BY-NC-ND

De Amerikaanse president Trump heeft de club van machtigste industrielanden G7 ernstig verdeeld, door te weigeren de slotverklaring te tekenen. Maar wie profiteren daarvan? RTL Z sprak met onder andere Rob De Wijk. 

Lees het artikel hier.

Photo by UK Prime Minister on Foter.com / CC BY-NC-ND

De grondwet van de Sovjet-Unie behoorde tot de meest democratische van de wereld. Probleempje: de communistische leiders zagen zich als de personifiëring van het volk, wisten wat dat volk dacht en wilde, en hoefden er daarom niet naar te luisteren. Veel westerse populisten hebben daar vandaag de dag ook een handje van.

Die oude grondwet laat zien dat er geen relatie hoeft te zijn tussen wat er op papier staat en hoe een regering zich feitelijk gedraagt. Maar zelden heb ik zoveel mooie woorden over de internationale rechtsorde, internationale instituties en zelfs democratie gehoord als deze week op een conferentie in Moskou. Volksvertegenwoordigers uit tientallen landen werden niet moe het belang ervan te benadrukken.

Toch was een ding duidelijk: ook al blijft het bij woorden, de internationale rechtsorde en de internationale instituties, zoals de Verenigde Naties, lijken onaantastbaar. Dit geldt echter niet meer voor het land dat die wereldorde na de Tweede Wereldoorlog zelf heeft geschapen en daar de afgelopen zeventig jaar de leider van is geweest. President Trump zegt het klimaat-verdrag van Parijs op, wil de Noord-Amerikaanse vrijhandelszone heronderhandelen, moet niets hebben van het Trans Pacific Partnership, start handelsoorlogen met zijn beste vrienden en negeert daarmee afspraken binnen de Wereldhandelsorganisatie, heeft lak aan wat andere landen vinden en investeert grof in defensie. Alles onder het mom van 'America First'.

Daarmee verwoest hij het weefsel van de internationale betrekkingen. In tegenstelling tot de deelnemers aan de conferentie doet hij niet eens de moeite om de door zijn voorgangers geschapen wereldorde te verdedigen. Dit maakt hem totaal anders dan de stoet van democraten en anti-democraten die ik deze week in Moskou voorbij zag trekken.

Luisterend naar al die volksvertegenwoordigers die zo hartstochtelijk die mondiale waarden verdedigden vroeg ik mij af welk recht westerse landen nog hebben om anderen de maat te nemen. Weinig, denk ik. Hoe moet je gastheer Rusland duidelijk maken dat de annexatie van de Krim landjepik is en volgens de Algemene Vergadering van de Verenigde Naties een inbreuk op het internationale recht, als Trump zich zelf niet aan internationale afspraken houdt.

Rusland

In Moskou werd opgemerkt dat de VS zich isoleren van de rest van de wereld. Daar heeft het inderdaad alle schijn van. Landen als Rusland maken gebruik van de ruimte die Trump creëert en zeggen de internationale rechtsorde wel te willen versterken. Dit is deels opportunistisch en hypocriet, maar tegelijkertijd is het hoopgevend dat het gezegd wordt. Ook al is het allemaal eigenbelang. Het internationale recht en de internationale instituties scheppen immers orde en zijn de enige kans om machtige landen, zoals de Verenigde Staten, in toom te houden.

Maar als er meer Trumps komen die de retoriek van de internationale rechtsorde afzweren, zakt de wereld nog verder weg in cynisch eigenbelang en conflict. De hypocrisie wordt dan wat minder, maar de risico's groter. Dat dit niet gebeurt, geeft hoop en toont de waarde van dialoog aan.

In de wandelgangen in Moskou werd uitgebreid over die wereldorde gediscussieerd. Alleen jammer dat dit zonder Nederlandse parlementariërs gebeurde. Die schitterden door afwezigheid.

The seventh meeting of the Sino-European Cyber Dialogue (SECD) was convened on 12 and 13 April in Geneva, Switzerland. The meeting was hosted by The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS) and the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR), with the support of the Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs and the Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP).

SECD is a track 1.5 dialogue on cyberspace issues supported by the Chinese government, a number of European governments as well as the European External Action Service. The meeting was attended by a broad range of European and Chinese officials and scholars responsible for cybersecurity and Internet governance issues. In total 43 participants attended the meeting. In addition to civil society participation, nine European governments and the EU were represented, as well as a number Chinese government organizations. 

The goals of the discussions have been to reduce misperceptions and to increase transparency of both countries’ authorities and understanding on how each country approaches cybersecurity, and to identify areas of potential cooperation, including the application of international law, confidence building measures and agreement on norms of responsible behavior. A number of ideas for cooperation have been put on the table by HCSS and CICIR to this end, and will require further discussions.

In the Geneva meeting, participants from each delegation first commented on the events, developments and major milestones since the previous meeting. Afterwards, they discussed issues related to Internet governance, the digital economy, international law, norms and norm processes. In the seventh iteration, there was an engaged exchange of ideas on how to deepen the discussion on international law, the implementation of norms of responsible State behavior and confidence-building measures (CBMs). Of particular interest were options to explore the adaption of regional norms and CBMs in a localized context.

The delegates stressed the importance of a reliable functioning of cyberspace, and recognized the value that open dialogues and other practical CBMs have on enhancing mutual understanding, cooperation and de-escalation, and in ensuring the overall stability of cyberspace.

Looking forward, delegates acknowledged the merit of exploring more concrete discussions for the eighth iteration of the Sino-European Cyber Dialogue to be held in China in the first half of 2019.

Rob de Wijk was vorige week te gast in Café Weltschmerz. Hij praatte met Coen de Jong over oorzaken, drijfveren, bestrijding en de gevolgen van terrorisme in Europa.

The European Commission recently announced that it would step up its efforts to fight disinformation online. Despite the prior reluctance of several commissioners to name any specific foreign governments, the newly published policy document, called a Communication, singles out Russia for practicing information warfare and aims to establish what it calls “a European approach” to tackle these and other forms of hybrid interference. This new approach will focus on improving transparency, promoting media diversity, fostering credible sources of information and devising long-term solutions to tackle disinformation in Europe. 

Read the entire article by Katarina Kertysova in World Politics Review.

On 18 June 2018 from 13:00 to 14:00, HCSS Strategic Analyst Jan Frederik Braun will participate in a discussion with Assistant Professor Daniel Scholten from the TU Delft on the geopolitics of renewable energy.

This event will take place on the Room for Discussion Podium of the University of Amsterdam.

Dr Braun and Dr Scholten  will discuss possible consequences and uncertainties of a global shift to renewable energy for interstate relations. This includes the technological characteristics as well as the economic and political dimensions of the ‘geopolitics of renewables’.

Dr Braun participates in the discussion on behalf of the HCSS Energy Transition Program.

Blije gezichten toen Joshua Holt na twee jaar illegale detentie voet op Amerikaanse bodem zette. Hij kwam niet terug van een gedroomde vakantie, zo vertelde hij president Trump, maar uit een nachtmerrie. 

Nee, die nachtmerrie vond niet plaats in Noord-Korea, maar in Venezuela. In dit buurland van Nederland heerst chaos. Dat de recente herverkiezing van president Maduro niet vrij en eerlijk verliep, is eigenlijk nog het minste probleem. In navolging van de Amerikaanse regering protesteerde minister Blok terecht tegen de gang van zaken. Maar uiteindelijk schiet je daar weinig mee op omdat je met protesten geen regionale crisis bezweert.

Blok werd al gedwongen tot crisismanagement toen hij begin april tijdens een verrassingsbezoek aan Caracas een overeenkomst sloot over de heropening van de grens met de ABC-eilanden. President Maduro had alle zee- en luchtverkeer geblokkeerd, zogenaamd om de smokkel van drugs, grondstoffen en wapens tegen te gaan. Het gevolg was dat, om met W.F. Hermans te spreken, onze resten tropisch Nederland zonder groenten en fruit kwamen te zitten. Blok beloofde Venezuela te helpen met het tegengaan van smokkel en kan Venezolanen, die in de ogen van de Nederlandse en Curaçaose regeringen ‘economische vluchtelingen’ zijn, terugsturen. Probleem opgelost. Of niet? Ik denk dat laatste.

Door te protesteren tegen de verkiezingen geeft de regering toe dat het in Venezuela inderdaad een puinhoop is. Maar dan wordt de stelling onhoudbaar dat er uit dat land alleen maar economische migranten komen en geen vluchtelingen die volgens het vluchtelingenverdrag moeten worden opgevangen. 

Dit blijkt ook uit de situatie in het land zelf. Die laat steeds minder ruimte voor creatieve interpretaties over de status van migranten. Door ondervoeding en gebrek aan medicijnen schijnt driekwart van de bevolking de afgelopen jaren 10 kilo gewicht te zijn verloren en steeg de kindersterfte alleen al in 2016 met 30 procent. De economie van dit ooit welvarende olie-exporterende land is door wanbeleid geruïneerd. Sinds 2014 bedraagt de krimp 30 procent en is de inflatie tot 14.000 procent opgelopen. Tegenstanders van het regime zitten in de gevangenis, de bevolking wordt onderdrukt en de machthebbers vullen hun zakken. Zou u daar willen wonen?

Vluchten gebeurt dan ook in grote mate. Niet minder dan vier miljoen Venezolanen zijn vertrokken. Daarvan zitten er nu 600.000 in buurland Colombia. Ter vergelijking: uit Syrië vluchtten vijf miljoen mensen. Dat aantal wordt in rap tempo door Venezuela overtroefd. De humanitaire ramp is in potentie zo groot dat ons Koninkrijk hard wordt geraakt. Maar voorlopig tracht de regering de situatie door middel van bezweringsformules te bagatelliseren en doet Curaçao de mensenstroom af als ‘ongedocumenteerde’ werkzoekers en illegalen.

Biedt opvang in de regio, het mantra van de Nederlandse regering, soelaas? Helaas, de ABC-eilanden zijn de regio.

Kan Nederland deze houding ten opzichte van de Venezolaanse vluchtelingen volhouden? Nee, want het Koninkrijksstatuut bepaalt dat de ‘handhaving van de onafhankelijkheid en de verdediging van het Koninkrijk’ en de ‘buitenlandse betrekkingen’ een zaak van het Koninkrijk zijn. Uiteindelijk worden de gevolgen van de Venezolaanse crisis voor de ABC-eilanden vooral een Haags probleem.

Lees wekelijks de column van Rob de Wijk in Trouw!

There is plenty of analysis on the security implications of the US’ withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal. Much less has been said about the trade implications of the US’ withdrawal. Since the main instrument used in the Iran nuclear deal was sanction relief, we can evaluate the effects of lifting the sanctions by analyzing changes in Iranian trade since 2015. This in turn helps in better understanding the economic considerations of individual countries as they respond to the US' withdrawal from the agreement. While there have been broader structural changes to the world economy since 2015, trade data still offers insight into the economic implications, especially since the price of oil has remained relatively stable between 2015 and 2017 (and makes up a significant share of Iranian trade). Our analysis of the data indicates that the European Union and the Republic of Korea stand to lose, whilst China stands to gain from the collapse of the nuclear deal.

Please find the Snapshot here.

Authors: Paul Verhagen & Lucie Kattenbroek

The Global Security Pulse tracks emerging security trends and risks worldwide. This month we focus on Security and Migration, identifying new tensions in Europe and challenges to the international order.

The Global Security Pulse (GSP) makes use of an advanced horizon-scanning methodology that relies on the manual monitoring of hundreds of validated foresight resources, the structured coding of signals, and expert assessment. The GSP product is based on the Clingendael Radar and has been further developed by The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies and the Clingendael Institute. It is part of the Strategic Monitor Programme, which receives funding from the Dutch Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Defence.

Authors: Kars de Bruijne, Kay de Jonge, Willemijn Tiekstra. Contributions: Fransje Molenaar, Ana Uzelac, Anca-Elena Ursu, Louise van Schaik (Clingendael), Reiner Bergema (HCSS).

DISCLAIMER
The Global Security Pulse is part of the PROGRESS Program, Lot 5, commissioned by the Netherlands’ Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Defense. Responsibility for the contents and for the opinions expressed rests solely with the authors; publication does not necessarily constitute an endorsement by the Netherlands Ministries of Foreign Affairs or Defense.

The fourth annual Planetary Security Conference (PSC 2019) will take place on the 19th & 20th of  February, 2019, in The Hague.

The conference is for policymakers, experts and practitioners from the diplomacy, defence and development sector. It has become the prime high-level meeting place to address how our planet can become more peaceful by tackling security risks emanating from climate change and other environmental stresses.

This years’ conference title is: #Doable.

The conference will put a thematic focus on:

1. Contribution of land and climate policies to peace,

2. Urban risks and instability

3. Geopolitics of energy transition.

Iraq, Lake Chad, Mali and the Caribbean Small Island Developing States will be spotlight regions to illustrate possible ways forward in addressing these themes.

Underpinning the conference will be the Hague Declaration on Planetary Security. There will be a critical review of progress on the six objectives of the Agenda for Action set out in the Declaration. Throughout the conference, commitments and practical measures to alleviate climate-related security risks will be garnered to catalyse action on the ground and seek more relevant policy adjustments in 2019.

All information regarding the programme and speakers of the Planetary Security Conference on February 19th and 20th 2019 will be published soon.

Nederland en Australië houden Rusland verantwoordelijk voor het neerhalen van de MH17 in 2014. Nederland wil nu dat Rusland volledig meewerkt aan het onderzoek dat moet leiden tot het veroordelen van de daders. Hart van Nederland sprak met Tim Sweijs. ‘Internationale druk zou uiteindelijk tot een overeenkomst kunnen leiden.’ Bekijk het item terug vanaf minuut 13:01.

Photo: Correspondent/Dutch RTL News/Berlin on Foter.com / CC BY-NC-SA