Column Rob de Wijk | A rather coincidental series of events
With this deal, Trump is making himself dependent on Putin, writes Rob de Wijk in Trouw. If he wants to win the upcoming midterm elections, he must put an end to complaints from his supporters about high diesel prices. But dependence creates vulnerability and leaves one open to blackmail. Putin understands this better than anyone: if Trump wants diesel, he must put pressure on Zelensky.
New HCSS report | Know Thy Enemy, Know Thyself: Simulations of Political Leaders’ Crisis Behaviour after a Ceasefire in Ukraine
What happens when a fragile ceasefire in Ukraine breaks down, and a second international emergency hits before leaders can bring the situation under control? In a new report, HCSS uses 160 crisis simulations to examine how political leaders might respond to a ceasefire breakdown compounded by a second international emergency. From Trump and Putin to Zelensky and Macron, the findings highlight the importance of coalition cohesion, leader behaviour and preparing for escalation and de-escalation. The report sets out seven recommendations for NATO and European policymakers to strengthen crisis preparedness.
Tim Sweijs | ORF Essay: “Into the Great Dark Open? Managing Maritime Contestation”
The world’s seas are becoming arenas of strategic confrontation. As states seek to control vital shipping routes, expand their naval fleets, and deploy new maritime technologies, the risk of escalation is growing. In this essay, originally published by the Observer Research Foundation (ORF), HCSS Research Director Tim Sweijs examines how contestation over Sea Lines of Communication is reshaping global security, from the Strait of Hormuz to the Taiwan Strait. He argues that this trajectory is not inevitable: political leadership, military dialogue, and mechanisms for restraint are urgently needed to preserve freedom of the seas and prevent wider conflict.
