Breakdown of the International Order? Strategic Options for Small and Middle Powers

The international order is not simply collapsing. It is fragmenting into overlapping institutions, competing norms and increasingly selective rule adherence. A new HCSS report, Breakdown of the International Order? Strategic Options for Small and Middle Powers, by Benedetta Girardi, Stephanie Govaerts, Noemie Jacq, Sven Koopmans and Tim Sweijs, examines what this means for European and like-minded small and middle powers (SMPs).

The report argues that SMPs face rising strategic pressure as great power competition intensifies, multilateral institutions become less effective, and confidence in international rules declines. These states have traditionally relied on legal frameworks, alliances and international institutions to protect their security, prosperity and diplomatic influence. As those foundations become less predictable, they must move beyond passive alignment and make active strategic choices.

The authors identify four broad archetypical strategic options:

1. Preserve the order – maintain and strengthen existing multilateral institutions while pursuing incremental reforms to improve their effectiveness and legitimacy.
2. Build coalitions – pursue issue-specific partnerships, minilateral arrangements, and regional initiatives designed to address concrete challenges that are otherwise blocked by universal institutions.
3. Balance blocs – hedge strategically and balance own interests between competing centres of power.
4. Break the system – accept the breakdown of the existing order, disengage from dysfunctional institutions, withdraw from legal regimes and establish alternatives for global governance

While each option carries its own unique costs and benefits, the report concludes that Option 2 offers the most practical path for SMPs. Issue-specific coalitions can help SMPs act with greater speed, protect core rules, shape standards and achieve results where universal institutions are blocked.

The report also laid out the following recommendations for the governments of SMPS:

1. Create the M40 and build stronger networks of SMPs coalitions
2. Deepen partnerships with the Global South
3. Increase defence and security cooperation through SMP minilateral partnerships
4. Strengthen technological sovereignty and economic competitiveness through minilateral cooperation
5. Reaffirm core European values through practical commitments

The five action areas offer SMPs actionable recommendations to shift from adaptation to leadership in shaping the international order. But in order to implement them, SMPs need to embrace agency and prioritise feasibility.

“Fragmentation does not have to mean irrelevance for small and middle powers,” says Benedetta Girardi. “If they work together, they can move from adapting to international change to shaping it.”

Stephanie Govaerts adds: “The task is not to abandon multilateralism, but to make it workable under new conditions. Flexible coalitions can help states defend core rules while delivering practical results.”

The report concludes that SMPs still have agency; while fragmentation does not necessarily imply irrelevance or decline, it instead creates opportunities for greater, responsibility, innovation and leadership. By combining principled support for international law with pragmatic, issue-based cooperation, SMPs protect their interests and contribute to a renewed international order.

Authors: Benedetta Girardi, Stephanie Govaerts, Noemie Jacq, Sven Koopmans and Tim Sweijs

The research for and production of this report has been conducted within the PROGRESS research framework agreement. Responsibility for the contents and for the opinions expressed, rests solely with the authors and does not constitute, nor should be construed as, an endorsement by the Netherlands Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Defence.