Anyone who still believes in the American security guarantee must be an incurable optimist. The recent confusion over whether troops will or will not be withdrawn from Germany, whether they will be stationed in Poland, and reports that America wants to reconsider its contribution to defense in times of crisis are undermining NATO. A president who also promises 5,000 troops as a gift for the election of the radical-right populist Nawrocki as president of Poland does not understand what he is doing. Troops are not a gift, but the result of a military-strategic analysis based on the security situation.
In recent weeks, I have discussed the current security crisis in Europe in Delphi, Vilnius, Tallinn, and Prague. The picture is partly disheartening. The debate is dominated by politicians who are afraid to stand up to Trump and say that Trump is dismantling NATO. Moreover, they fear making the wrong decisions for which they may later be held accountable.
They are supported by bureaucrats whose knowledge and solutions are not applicable to the current Russian threat. Rules and procurement procedures are maddening. Following procedures has now become more important than achieving results. That is why it takes years before anything gets off the ground. Dutch State Secretary for Defence Derk Boswijk spoke wise words about this in Prague.
In many countries, it is even easier to give money to Ukraine so that drones can be purchased in, for example, the Netherlands, than it is to buy those same drones for their own armed forces.
The debate is further dominated by former generals who too often fall back on now irrelevant knowledge and want to fight the last war.
There are dissenting voices. They come from think tanks that the establishment finds irritating.
For me, this is an overwhelming sense of déjà vu. When I joined the Ministry of Defence after the end of the Cold War to work on restructuring the armed forces, the same thing was happening.
There are, however, some bright spots. The European Union has taken the lead in the rearmament of Europe. Many priorities make sense, from drones to air defense, and from long-range weapons to cyber defense. There is enough money available.
At the same time, old thinking still prevails. The war in Ukraine shows that technological developments are moving rapidly and that the acquisition of heavy weapons systems such as tanks, fighter aircraft, and even warships is no longer the priority. In Ukraine, everything revolves around drones — at least until countermeasures are developed against them as well. The same applies to NATO: the first line of defense consists of drones, missiles, and air defense systems.
Speed is essential, but the obstacles are enormous, while the signals coming from intelligence agencies are alarming. A report presented in Prague by GLOBSEC identified shortages of qualified personnel and found that most funding goes to large companies producing traditional weapons systems, whose delivery times are becoming shockingly long while prices are exploding. European startups with innovative solutions — which, as in Ukraine, play an essential role in defense and can deliver quickly — are being underfunded.
Yet politicians across Europe continue to insist that we cannot do without America. They are hitting the brakes at a moment when speed is urgently needed. Because we have a problem now, and it must be solved now. Putin knows that too.
Source: Trouw, Rob de Wijk, 28 mei 2026
Experts
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