Research
In May 2023, HCSS launched The Socio-Political Instability Survey, inviting over 500 think tankers from around the world to give their views on the short-term likelihood and geography of volatility globally using both multiple-choice and open questions. The results of the open-ended questions were gained through a process of quantitative and qualitative discourse analysis, with specified themes or coding categories determined by the authors.
The sixth edition of the ‘Observer’ series continues to monitor high levels of instability in Western Asia and Eastern Europe, caused by the war in Ukraine and the conflict in Gaza. The escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran followed by American airstrikes on the Fordow nuclear plant weakened the Ayatollah’s reign, bringing Iran to the top of the list of countries most at risk of further socio-political instability. Consequentially, military factors are once again seen as the main driver of global socio-political instability, once again surpassing economic factors now the unease and uncertainty surrounding US trade has receded into the background.
The survey further examines the potential outcomes of the Russo-Ukrainian war, the EU’s stance within the U.S.-China rivalry, and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) most affected by geopolitical tensions. Finally, respondents reflect on instability within their own countries.
Authors: Thomas Jansen and Pieter-Jan Vandoren
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