Publications

Over the years, HCSS has built up an extensive archive of reports, monitors, papers and other publications. We disseminate the results of our research as broadly as possible to benefit the public good. Use the advanced search functions below to browse through our research library, most of which is available as free PDF downloads.

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Command Confrontation: Considering China's Evolving Command Capabilities and Implications for NATO

11 Jun 2025

A new HCSS guest paper by Elsa B. Kania assesses China's evolving command capabilities and the implications for NATO with a particular focus on developments in C4ISR. It outlines the strategic importance of the PLA's advancements and highlights key lessons for NATO, emphasising resilience, adaptation and responsible innovation in future command capabilities.

Appraising the State of Play of C4ISR Infrastructure within NATO: Gaps, Deficiencies and Steps Forward

26 May 2025

A new HCSS guest paper by Andrea Gilli and Mauro Gilli explores how NATO’s information backbone is under threat from electronic warfare, cyber vulnerabilities, and fragmentation. It outlines urgent reforms in AI-driven command, procurement, and investment alignment—vital ahead of the 2025 NATO Summit.

How Ukraine's War is Reshaping C4ISR for the Modern Battlefield

19 May 2025

In a new HCSS guest paper, Kateryna Bondar examines how Ukraine’s Armed Forces have transformed their battlefield coordination under pressure. Through rapid innovation and adaptation, Ukraine developed a more agile C4ISR system. The paper offers key lessons and five recommendations for NATO allies seeking to modernise their command structures.

NATO’s Digital Modernisation: The Case of Cloud Computing

12 May 2025

In a new HCSS guest paper, Antonio Calcara explores NATO’s cloud computing strategy and its implications for digital warfare. As cloud infrastructure becomes critical for AI-driven operations, NATO faces military and industrial challenges in implementation. The paper offers strategic insights on moving toward “cooperation by design” in future capabilities.

Hybrid threat modeling

9 May 2025

Hybrid threats pose a complex and evolving challenge to Western governments. These threats span military and civilian domains, blending conventional and unconventional tactics, remaining below the threshold of armed conflict. Their ambiguity and unpredictability make them difficult to detect and counter. Our most recent research by Maarten Vonk and Tim Sweijs uses game-theoretic modelling to evaluate the effectiveness of various counter-measures—ranging from enhancing societal resilience and denying adversaries the means to act, to dissuasion through the threat of punishment.

The Socio-Political Instability Observer: January 2025

7 May 2025

The fifth edition of the ‘Observer’, analysing the results of the HCSS Socio-Political Instability Survey, continues to monitor high levels of instability in Western Asia and Eastern Europe. Despite a Gaza ceasefire, tensions between Israel and Iran and the fallout from Syria’s regime collapse persist. Ukraine now tops the list of high-risk countries, likely due to war-related uncertainty. Notably, the U.S. has surged as the most influential country in global instability, rising from 15% to 60%, reflecting concerns over Trump’s second-term policies. Economic factors have overtaken military ones as the main drivers of instability, amid growing fears of trade wars.

Conference Report Seabed Security

29 Apr 2025

On March 27, HCSS and TNO, in close collaboration with the Ministries of Infrastructure and Water Management and Defence, organised the Seabed Security Seminar in The Hague. As part of the preparations, TNO in collaboration with HCSS and the Ministeries, drafted a position paper containing concrete recommendations for action, aimed at strengthening the debate and contributing to effective solutions for the strategic security of the seabed.

Securing European Military Fuels in a Tense Security Environment: Supply, Distribution and Storage

22 Apr 2025

How prepared is NATO’s European fuel infrastructure for war on its Eastern Flank? Fossil fuels are the backbone of modern militaries, a fact that is unlikely to change in the foreseeable future. This new report investigates the challenges to fuel logistics that NATO could face if forced into a large-scale conflict on its Eastern Flank. It finds that several core features of the European fuel supply system could emerge as serious constraints on military effectiveness and provides several recommendations to address these challenges.

A Militarily Regenerated Russia as a Future Threat to NATO? Perspectives from Russia Itself

16 Apr 2025

Beyond Western interpretations, how is Russia debating its own military future and stance towards NATO? A new HCSS report, part of the innovative multi-year research project RUBASE, sets out to improve our understanding of Russia’s multi-domain international behaviour, by providing insights derived directly from Russian-language sources on two crucial topics: Russia’s capacity for military regeneration and its potential intentions towards NATO. The research leverages an innovative analytical approach, combining deep domain expertise with AI assistance, to systematically process a scale of information previously unmanageable.

Voortzettingsvermogen: Een parate krijgsmacht in een weerbare maatschappij

16 Apr 2025

Voortzettingsvermogen en weerbaarheid: Met de toenemende dreiging vanuit Rusland moet Nederland haar krijgsmacht voorbereiden op langdurige inzet. Dit nieuwe HCSS rapport door Frank Bekkers, Hans van der Louw, Otto van Wiggen, Björn de Heer, Pieter-Jan Vandoren, Michel Rademaker en Nino Malekovic analyseert hoe we ons voortzettingsvermogen kunnen versterken, van logistiek en voorraden tot personeelsstrategieën en industriële capaciteit. Lees meer over hoe Nederland haar defensie-inzet kan schalen en volhouden in een conflict.

Position paper Seabed Security

9 Apr 2025

On March 27, HCSS and TNO, in close collaboration with the Ministries of Infrastructure and Water Management and Defence, organised the Seabed Security Seminar in The Hague. As part of the preparations, TNO in collaboration with HCSS and the Ministeries, drafted a position paper containing concrete recommendations for action, aimed at strengthening the debate and contributing to effective solutions for the strategic security of the seabed.

Rough Seas Ahead: Maritime Trends and Scenarios until 2050

7 Apr 2025

What does the future hold for the Royal Netherlands Navy? The latest HCSS report by Davis Ellison, Pieter-Jan Vandoren and Frank Bekkers explores the future of Dutch maritime security in the 2040-2050 period. With climate change, shifting trade dynamics, and growing geopolitical instability, the RNLN must adapt to emerging threats. The report outlines key trends, four potential conflict scenarios, and critical capability recommendations.

Unconventional Legal Approaches to protecting Underwater Infrastructure

31 Mar 2025

New HCSS guest paper by Alexander Lott explores legal solutions to safeguard critical underwater infrastructure from sabotage and accidental damage. Existing international law offers little protection beyond territorial waters, leaving submarine cables and pipelines vulnerable. This paper examines unconventional legal tools—ranging from piracy laws to safety zones—that could help coastal states take action. As recent incidents in the Baltic Sea and beyond have shown, securing these vital assets is more urgent than ever.

Strengthening Taiwan’s Sea Cable Security

31 Mar 2025

Submarine cables are the lifeline of global digital communication, yet they remain vulnerable to geopolitical risks, cyber threats, and sabotage. Dr. Kenny Huang examines these security challenges and explores strategies to protect critical infrastructure in this new HCSS guest paper. From AI-powered monitoring to stronger international cooperation, the paper provides key recommendations for strengthening sea cable security in an era of rising global tensions.

Coping with Sabotage and Seabed Security Threats in the Baltic Sea: a Regional Maritime Security Policy

31 Mar 2025

How can regional cooperation improve maritime security in the Baltic Sea? A new HCSS guest paper by Adriana Ávila-Zúñiga-Nordfjeld on securing critical seabed infrastructure in the Baltic Sea explores the feasibility of expanding the Helsinki Convention and HELCOM to include maritime security measures. It highlights the need for a regional agreement to counter undersea sabotage threats through standardized policies and cooperation.

From the Euronuke to a Nuclear Weapon Free Zone: Europe’s Options in an Era of Eroding American Extended Deterrence

27 Mar 2025

The latest HCSS report examines the precarious state of the international nuclear order and the challenges Europe faces as U.S. security guarantees become increasingly uncertain. With arms control agreements collapsing and the return of transactional U.S. alliances, European nations must explore alternative deterrence strategies. This report by Davis Ellison, Samuel Zilincik, and Tim Sweijs outlines six potential pathways for strengthening European security, from nuclear-sharing to strategic conventional weapons.

Dynamics of De-Risking: Towards resilient supply chains for antibiotics, drones and the electricity grid in the Netherlands

25 Mar 2025

The EU faces growing economic dependencies on China in vital sectors like health, defence, and energy. This HCSS report by Irina Patrahau, Benedetta Girardi, Ron Stoop and Lennart Engel, written at the request of the China Knowledge Network (CKN), examines the risks posed by China’s economic statecraft and outlines a strategic de-risking approach for Europe. By analysing vulnerabilities in antibiotics, drones, and electricity grids, we provide concrete policy recommendations to strengthen resilience.

Guest Paper | Are the West’s Golden Years Over?

19 Mar 2025

This guest paper Are the West’s Golden Years Over? was written by Dr. Florence Gaub in anticipation of the third The Hague Strategic Foresight Forum Talks titled 'The Future World Order', held on 11 December 2024. The paper examines the narrative of Western decline in contrast to the rising influence of China and Russia. It argues that by embracing innovation and a forward-looking vision, the West can reshape its future and reclaim global leadership.

Write-up | Navigating Tomorrow: The Future World Order

18 Mar 2025

On the 11th of December 2024, The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS) invited foresight experts to explore the shifting dynamics of our global order from a North American, Southeast Asian and European perspective. This was the third and final event in a three-part series called 'The Hague Strategic Foresight Forum Talks'. The third event was titled ‘The Future World Order.’ This write-up of the third event offers perspectives on the flaws and merits of the current order and lays out the contours of the future global order from American, Asian and European experts. It concludes with a set of key takeaways offered by the participants.

Cooperation in an Era of Confrontation: The Case of the Benelux Arms Control Agency

17 Mar 2025

In the rapidly changing geopolitical context, middle and minor powers have fewer options regarding arms control. But minilateral cooperation can be beneficial to retain past experiences and expertise concerning the negotiation, implementation, and verification of formal arms control treaties. In a new HCSS guest paper, Wannes Verstraete focuses on the establishment, the current role, and future opportunities for the Benelux Arms Control Agency (BACA) as a successful example of trilateral conventional arms control cooperation.

Notitie | Militaire Inzet voor Oekraïne

14 Mar 2025

In deze nieuwe notitie over militaire inzet in Oekraïne bespreken Rob de Wijk, Tim Sweijs, Pieter Bindt en Tom Middendorp de mogelijke scenario’s, zoals een ‘geruststellingsmacht’ of een grootschalige afschrikkingsmissie. Zonder Amerikaanse betrokkenheid is afschrikking onzeker, en een staakt-het-vuren blijft instabiel. De notitie onderzoekt de risico’s van militaire inzet, het escalatiegevaar, de afweging tussen steun aan Oekraïne en NAVO-verdediging en de implicaties voor de Europese veiligheid.

Deterring or Spiralling? Emerging Technologies, Strategic Stability, and Prospects for Sino-European Arms Control

12 Mar 2025

How are EDTs reshaping nuclear deterrence and global defence strategies? The latest HCSS report by Davis Ellison, Tim Sweijs, and Timur Ghirotto explores how emerging and disruptive technologies (EDTs) like AI, hypersonic missiles, and cyber warfare threaten global security. It highlights the urgent need for arms control measures, transparency, and European engagement with China to prevent instability.

WPS Policy Brief | Entry-points for Collaborative Water Governance in Southern Iraq

7 Mar 2025

As Iraq continues to deal with a chronic water crisis, experts both inside and outside the government are mobilising to find and design durable solutions. Addressing water-related tensions in southern Iraq can be a significant challenge, especially when it comes to addressing long-term systemic issues. In support of designing realistic and achievable first steps, this Water, Peace and Security (WPS) policy brief – based on 13 interviews with water experts in southern Iraq, 3 focus groups, and 3 working groups – outlines a set of entry-points for the development of long-term solutions.

In the Shadows of War: The Impact of Russia's Invasion of Ukraine on Criminal Networks in Eastern Europe

6 Mar 2025

How has Russia’s invasion of Ukraine opened up new spaces for organised crime to become weaponised across Europe and thereby risking security across the continent? This report by Laura Jasper, Ana Dadu, and Davis Ellison examines how the Russian invasion of Ukraine has enabled criminal networks to exploit wartime instability, adapt to shifting markets, and expand their operations across Eastern Europe. Key findings reveal a significant link between organised crime, kleptocracy, and stability, highlighting their particularly destabilising impact on Eastern Europe. Understanding these dynamics is crucial to addressing the hidden criminal dimensions of war.

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