Research
In May 2023, HCSS launched The Socio-Political Instability Survey, inviting over 500 think tankers from around the world to give their views on the short-term likelihood and geography of volatility globally using both multiple-choice and open questions. The results of the open-ended questions were gained through a process of quantitative and qualitative discourse analysis, with specified themes or coding categories determined by the authors.
The fifth edition of the ‘Observer’ series continues to monitor high levels of instability in Western Asia and Eastern Europe. Although a ceasefire was reached for the Gaza war, the region still faces great instability due to the continuous tensions between Israel and Iran, as well as the uncertainty left after the collapse of the Assad Regime in Syria. At the same time, Ukraine has regained the top of the list of countries most at risk of socio-political instability, possibly due to the uncertainty surrounding the future of the war. However, when it comes to the country exercising the most influence on global socio-political instability, the United States jumped from around 15% in the last edition to 60% this year, highlighting the uncertainty connected with the second Trump administration and its new approach towards historical allies and adversaries. This edition also highlights that economic factors have now surpassed military ones as the primary drivers of instability, likely due to the heightened possibility of trade wars.
The survey further examines the potential outcomes of the Russo-Ukrainian war, the EU’s stance within the U.S.-China rivalry, and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) most affected by geopolitical tensions. Finally, respondents reflect on instability within their own countries.
Authors: Timur Ghirotto and Pieter-Jan Vandoren
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