Lessons for Taiwan from the Russo-Ukrainian War

Taiwan has faced threats from China for decades, but the risk of invasion has grown significantly since Xi Jinping’s rise to power in 2012. Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine has reshaped global geopolitics, offering valuable lessons for Taiwan’s national security. These lessons, however, must be adapted to Taiwan’s unique conditions, writes guest author Dr. Jyh-Shyang Sheu, Institute for National Defence and Security Research, in this HCSS paper.

Taiwan is actively reforming its military, civil defence, and technological capabilities. While progress has been made, gaps remain in addressing the threats posed by China. Effective deterrence and international cooperation, particularly with the United States, are critical. Yet, Taiwan’s geography poses challenges, including limited access to foreign aid during wartime and the need to counter peacetime grey-zone harassment.

Emerging technologies, such as unmanned vehicles, offer potential advantages but require tailored strategies and integration into Taiwan’s defence systems. Strengthening strategic communication with like-minded nations is also vital to counter China’s grey-zone tactics and deter a potential full-scale invasion. Overcoming these challenges swiftly is essential to safeguarding Taiwan’s security and stability in the region.

This paper is part of a series of guest contributions on the lessons learned from the war in Ukraine, applicable to Taiwan. The research was made possible through a grant from the Taipei Representative Office in the Netherlands to the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS).

Author: Dr. Jyh-Shyang Sheu, Institute for National Defence and Security Research

Edited by Davis Ellison, Benedetta Girardi and Tim Sweijs.

• Paper 1 | Lessons Learned from the War in Ukraine Applicable to Taiwan: The Land Domain
• Paper 2 | Lessons for Taiwan from the Russo-Ukrainian War
• Paper 3 | The Maritime War in Ukraine: The Limits of Russian Sea Control?
• Paper 4 | Lessons Learned from the War in Ukraine Applicable to Taiwan: Airpower