Guest Paper | Are the West’s Golden Years Over?

On the 11th of December 2024, The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS) invited foresight experts to explore the shifting dynamics of our global order from a North American, Southeast Asian and European perspective. This was the third and final event in a three-part series called ‘The Hague Strategic Foresight Forum Talks’.

This guest paper Are the West’s Golden Years Over? was written by Dr. Florence Gaub in anticipation of the third The Hague Strategic Foresight Forum Talks ‘The Future World Order’.

The paper explores the perceived decline of the West in contrast to the rising influence of China and Russia. It examines how narratives of Western stagnation – driven by political uncertainty, demographic challenges, and economic anxieties -have gained traction, shaping global perceptions of the future. While pessimism dominates Western discourse, Dr. Gaub argues that decline is not inevitable. Drawing on historical examples, it highlights the West’s capacity for adaptation, reform, and innovation. The analysis underscores the need for a new, forward-looking vision to counter narratives of doom and reinvigorate global leadership. In a time of crisis, the paper asserts, the West has a unique opportunity to redefine its future.

Dr. Florence Gaub is Director of the Research Division at the NATO Defense College. Florence, a French-German national, has held key positions such as deputy director at the EU Institute for Security Studies, foresight advisor at the EU Council, and special advisor to EU Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič. Beginning her career at NATO’s Middle East Faculty in 2009, she now focuses on strategic foresight and geopolitical trends. Florence serves on the World Economic Forum’s Global Future Council on Complex Risks and is a member of the World Science Fiction Society. She holds a PhD from Humboldt University and degrees from Sciences Po Paris, the Sorbonne, and the University of Munich.