Global Security Pulse July 2018: Vertical tensions

July 26th 2018 - 09:00

The Global Security Pulse tracks emerging security trends and risks worldwide.

This month’s edition explores trends on the vertical tensions between individuals, national governments, and the European Union, and presents novel developments regarding Euroscepticism, trust in governing institutions in the Netherlands and Europe, and the effects on the international order. 

The Global Security Pulse (GSP) makes use of an advanced horizon-scanning methodology that relies on the manual monitoring of hundreds of validated foresight resources, the structured coding of signals, and expert assessment. The GSP product is based on the Clingendael Radar and has been further developed by The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies and the Clingendael Institute. It is part of the Strategic Monitor Program, which receives funding from the Dutch Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Defence.

Authors: Reinier Bergema, Kristina Tranakieva, Willem Oosterveld, Tim Sweijs (HCSS). Contributors: Adriaan Schout , Danny Pronk, Minke Meijnders (Clingendael), Lucie Kattenbroek (HCSS). 

Use the button on the right to download the Pulse or click here to access the mobile version.

Click here to access the methodology document.


The research for and production of this report has been conducted within the PROGRESS research framework agreement. Responsibility for the contents and for the opinions expressed, rests solely with the authors and does not constitute, nor should be construed as, an endorsement by the Netherlands Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Defense.

Dr. Willem Theo Oosterveld is a non-resident senior fellow at HCSS. His areas of expertise include the politics of the Middle East, conflict analysis and peacebuilding, as well as law and development. He holds degrees in political science, international law, and history, having studied in Amsterdam, Leiden, Paris and New York, and was a visiting fellow at Harvard University. A former Fulbright scholar, he earned a PhD from the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies in Geneva, Switzerland.
Dr. Tim Sweijs is the Director of Research at The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies. He is the initiator, creator and author of numerous studies, methodologies, and tools for research projects in horizon scanning, conflict analysis, international and national security risk assessment, and strategy and capability development. His main research interest concerns the changing character of modern day conflict. He has led multicenter research projects for both private and public sector organisations. Tim is also an Affiliate at the Center for International Strategy, Technology and Policy in the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs at Georgiatech.