Global Security Pulse August 2018: (Russian) Political Warfare

August 30th 2018 - 13:58

The Global Security Pulse tracks emerging security trends and risks worldwide. 

This month the Global Security Pulse focuses on the subject of political warfare. It specifically assesses how it plays a role in the foreign relations of Russia and consists of three separate parts:

  • A table of the main trends regarding the threat of political warfare, with Russia remaining the most active and aggressive actor; 
  • A table on the impact of political warfare on the overall state of the international order, based on a set of qualitative indicators/proxy’s;
  • The results of a structured Horizon Scan. 

All (raw) results are available with the authors.

Use the button on the right to download the Pulse or click here to access the mobile version.

The Global Security Pulse (GSP) makes use of an advanced horizon-scanning methodology that relies on the manual monitoring of hundreds of validated foresight resources, the structured coding of signals and expert assessment. The GSP product is based on the Clingendael Radar and has been further developed by The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies and the Clingendael Institute. It is part of the Strategic Monitor Programme, which receives funding from the Dutch Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Defence.

Authors: Aaron Arends, Danny Pronk (Clingendael). Contributors: Sico van der Meer, Jurgen Oppel, Tony van der Togt (Clingendael); Reinier Bergema, Katarina Kertysova, Michel Roelen, Kristina Tranakieva (HCSS).


The research for and production of this report has been conducted within the PROGRESS research framework agreement. Responsibility for the contents and for the opinions expressed, rests solely with the authors and does not constitute, nor should be construed as, an endorsement by the Netherlands Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Defense.

Reinier Bergema is a Strategic Analyst at HCSS. He holds a dual Master’s degree in Political Science (International Relations) and Public Administration (Crisis and Security Management), both from Leiden University. His research interests include, inter alia, radicalization, (jihadist) foreign fighters, and terrorism.
Katarina Kertysova is a strategic analyst at HCSS. She holds a degree in International Relations and French from the University of St Andrews, after which she pursued security studies at Sciences Po Paris and the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO).  
Michel Roelen is a Strategic Analyst at HCSS. He graduated from the Royal Military Academy and has an Executive Master in Security and Defence from the Advance Military Command and Staff Course, both in The Netherlands. Currently he is working towards a Master’s degree in Military History at the University of Amsterdam. As an artillery officer he has held operational leadership positions as Platoon, Company and Battalion Commander, operational positions as battalion and brigade operations officer, and staff officer positions at the Army Staff and the Ministry of Defence.