Bridging Waters Guest Paper Series: Navigating Great Power Rivalry through Maritime Cooperation

For a new paper series, six guest authors explore key aspects of maritime security cooperation between Europe and rising middle powers. Each author presents the perspective of a different littoral state, specifically Egypt and Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea region, and Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam in the South China Sea. The series builds on insights from the report ‘Bridging Waters: Strengthening Europe’s Maritime Security Engagement Through Partnerships with Rising Middle Powers’ and the webinar Bridging Waters: Middle Powers’ Cooperation on Maritime Security, held on 18 November, which brought together maritime experts from both regions to discuss avenues for further collaboration. The discussion highlighted the need for strengthened partnerships to address growing instability and to safeguard maritime routes that are vital for international trade.

Great power rivalry in the South China Sea has shifted regional security dynamics, with daily grey zone encounters posing greater immediate risks than open conflict. In this contested environment, Indonesia finds itself on the frontline of coercive maritime activities, while Europe faces the erosion of the rules-based order it seeks to uphold. Yet the EU’s ability to engage is constrained by limited geopolitical bandwidth and competing priorities closer to home.

This HCSS guest paper by Shafiah F. Muhibat (CSIS Indonesia) examines how the EU can remain a relevant security actor in the Indo-Pacific by adopting a focused, non-escalatory approach to maritime cooperation. Rather than pursuing military balancing, the paper argues that Europe should build on Indonesia’s diplomatic weight, operational experience, and non-aligned credibility to support preventive measures. This includes targeted joint training, legal and procedural capacity-building, and enhanced maritime domain awareness. Together, these low-footprint initiatives offer a realistic pathway for mitigating grey zone tensions without amplifying great power rivalry.

Author: Dr. Shafiah F. Muhibat, Deputy Executive Director for Research, Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Indonesia

Editors: Pieter-Jan Vandoren, Benedetta Girardi and Thomas Jansen

Quality Assurance: Paul Sinning

The research for and production of this report has been conducted within the PROGRESS research framework agreement. Responsibility for the contents and for the opinions expressed, rests solely with the authors and does not constitute, nor should be construed as, an endorsement by the Netherlands Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Defence.