The days of Ali Abdullah Saleh as Yemen’s president are numbered. The crackdown of his security forces on Friday, which left at least 50 dead, has backfired, as the tragedy helped a divided opposition coalesce into a formidable opponent. The Yemeni uprising, which erupted early February, shocked Saleh’s regime but division across opposition groups meant that a regime change was unlikely.
The bloodshed on Friday, however, was a turning point: key religious figures and tribal leaders took the side of the opposition, calling for Saleh to step down. Even Sheikh Sadiq al-Ahmar, the leader of Saleh’s Hashed tribe, issued a statement that supports the protesters’ demands. Meanwhile ministers and members of parliament are defecting daily. In short, President Saleh is increasingly isolated and losing control. Post-Saleh Yemen would be fraught with uncertainty and security concerns. Yemen faces serious socio-economic problems: the poorest in the Arab world, a huge youth bulge, pervasive unemployment, and acute water shortages. Moreover, its largely tribal society is armed. If Yemen descends into chaos or becomes a failed state, there are immediate security risks for the entire region.
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