European strategy is being left adrift in the Indo-Pacific, by failing to realise the impact of its choices in regional partners and specific naval tasks. The most logical use of European naval capabilities does not lie in the Western Pacific, but rather in the Western Indian Ocean, conclude Davis Ellison, Benedetta Girardi and Laura Jasper in this new HCSS brief.
Europeans are playing an increasingly greater role in the Indo-Pacific, both because their economic interests and their interests in a stable order are at stake, and because of their allegiance to the United States.
In the case of the growing European naval presence in the Indo-Pacific, for what ends are they the means? What signals can the naval presence send to other Europeans, to regional Indo-Pacific states including partners, and to the United States and China? Can these simultaneous signals be effective or do they cancel each other out?
The most logical use of European naval capabilities does not lie in the Western Pacific, where there are risks of being dragged into or even inflaming the Sino-American rivalry and alienating regional ASEAN states, but rather in the Western Indian Ocean, where there is a much more coherent strategic logic to maintaining the openness of sea lines of communication upon which Europe relies.
This HCSS brief explores why and how different coalitions of European military forces can form and deploy to the Indo-Pacific. The authors analyse the trade-offs faced by European states as they seek both partners within Europe and in the region and the respective impacts these choices make on the military and economic dynamics of the region.
European states must be aware that as they work to engage in the Indo-Pacific region, those states will be unconvinced of efforts that are out of synch with their own threat and power perceptions. Similarly, regional states should be cautious of misinterpreting commitments from either Europe or Washington as an undying bond to the total defence of their states.
Authors: Davis Ellison, Benedetta Girardi and Laura Jasper
Contributor: Alisa Hoenig
The research for and production of this report has been conducted within the PROGRESS research framework agreement. Responsibility for the contents and for the opin¬ions expressed, rests solely with the authors and does not constitute, nor should be construed as, an endorsement by the Netherlands Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Defence.
Cover image source: Ministry of Defence, the Netherlands
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