HCSS
  • Home
  • Research
    • Research
      • All Publications
    • Trending Topics
      • China in a Changing World Order
      • Climate & Security
      • Cyber Policy and Resilience
      • Energy & Raw Materials
      • Europe in the Indo-Pacific Hub
      • Hybrid Threats
      • Initiative on the Future of Transatlantic Relations
      • RuBase: Knowledge base on Russia
      • PROGRESS / Strategic Monitor
      • Strategic Stability: Deterrence and Arms Control
    • All Research Topics
      • Defence and International Security
      • Global Power Shifts
      • Governance and International Organization
      • National Security Strategy
      • Technology & Innovation
      • Strategic Monitor
      • Cyber Policy and Resilience
      • The Climate Security Nexus
      • Critical Materials, Minerals and Metals
      • Natural Resources and Food Security
      • Sustainability and the Energy Transition
      • Terrorism Piracy & Crime
      • International Trade and Competition
    • Special Projects
      • Crowds & Machines
      • Energy Storage in Transition
      • Influencing Human Behaviour
      • The Future of European Strategy
      • Global Commission on the Stability of Cyberspace (GCSC)
      • IMCCS
      • Robotic and Autonomous Systems
      • The New Space Era
      • Water, Peace & Security (WPS)
  • News
    • BNR | De Strateeg
    • Columns
    • Events
    • HCSS Digest
    • Podcasts
  • HCSS Datalab
    • Climate Security Risk Monitor
    • Cyber Arms Watch
    • Dutch Foreign Relations Index
  • Services
    • Strategic Capability gaming
    • Studio HCSS
    • Indo-Dutch Cyber Security School
  • About Us
    • Experts
    • Contact
    • Subscribe to our Newsletter
    • Press & Media Inquiries
    • Jobs & Internships
    • Partners & Clients
    • Global Futures Foundation
  • Search
  • Menu Menu

News

Mapping the impact of Covid-19 on food security and political stability

November 13, 2020

What is the impact of Covid-19 on food security and political stability? In cooperation with BlackShore and 52Impact, and supported by the European Space Agency (ESA), HCSS is about to answer that question in the most innovative and ambitious way possible: through satellite imagery, crowdsourcing and machine learning.

Satellite imagery, crowdsourcing and machine learning

Using satellite imagery, BlackShore’s crowdsourcing platform Cerberus will be mapping harvests in real time. Cerberus uses the power of the crowd (i.e. thousands of gamers) and serious game technologies to analyze the satellite imagery. The results of the crowd consists of a dataset that will be used as input for the machine learning system of 52impact to train the algorithms to classify different types of crops automatically and predict yields, which is essential to assess food security. The satellite based output will be combined with economic and political data of HCSS to provide an holistic perspective on food security and political stability.

A perfect storm

Covid-19 has a tremendous effect on food security and political stability. A perfect storm of poverty, growing natural resource scarcity, and pandemic may lead to the collapse of already fragile states, but also severely impact many others. The current coronavirus epidemic adds yet another threat-multiplying factor to the explosive mix of conflict and instability drivers that many countries around the world are facing. Direct impacts on health coupled with devastating economic impacts will likely lead to increasing instability, internal displacement, government delegitimization, an increase in illicit activities, and further proliferation of extremist ideologies.

Those most affected will be the poorest and most vulnerable (including migrants, displaced persons, those hit by conflict) and underinvestment in sanitation in already poverty-ridden countries will amplify the pandemic’s impact. Disruptions across food systems will be of particular concern as Covid-19 and related measures to limit the spread of the virus will restrict people’s access to food leading to hunger and even death.

In the short term, massive logistical disruptions in the production and supply of staple food crops will affect the livelihoods of millions. This includes small scale farmers, pastoralists and fishers who are hindered to work their lands, take care of their cattle or fish the waters, but also informal workers that depend for their income on (seasonal) harvesting and processing. Lack of animal feed and the reduced capacity of slaughterhouses will create huge shortages of high value crops and proteins, which not only affects the rural poor, but also urban populations. The resulting scarcity and rising food prices may lead to further civil unrest and protest. It will most certainly lead to a disruption in international agri-food and commodity trade, leaving food importing countries at the mercy of international aid.

Our first mission

Our first mission: measuring the impact of Covid-19 on crop yields in the Rift Valley, Ethiopia (focusing primarily on three types of harvest: wheat, barley or teff and maize).

  • Share on Facebook
  • Share on Twitter
  • Share on WhatsApp
  • Share on LinkedIn
  • Share by Mail

Experts

Laura Birkman
Ninoslav Malekovic

Related News

Related Content

  1. CoP Meeting: Crowds & Machines
  2. Blog | The best of both worlds: Crowds & Machines
  3. Covid-19 European Security Implications The Security Implications of the Pandemic: COVID-19 and European Security

Office Address

  • The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies
  • Lange Voorhout 1
  • 2514 EA The Hague
  • The Netherlands

Contact Us

  • Telephone: +31(70) 318 48 40
  • E-mail: info@hcss.nl
  • IBAN NL10INGB0666328730
  • BIC INGBNL2A
  • VAT NL.8101.32.436.B01
  • Contact

Legal & Privacy

  • Disclaimer & Privacy
  • Terms & Conditions (NL) 
  • Terms & Conditions (ENG) 
  • Coordinated Vulnerability Disclosure

Follow us

© The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies
    HCSS Digest | Week 46Kijk het Mars & Mercurius Symposium 2020 terug
    Scroll to top

    GDPR Consent

    Your privacy is important to us. Here you can set which consent you are allowing us with regards to the collection of general information, the placing of cookies of the collection of personal information. You can click 'Forget my settings' at the bottom of this form to revoke all given consents.

    Privacy policy | Close
    Settings

    GDPR Consent Settings

    Your privacy is important to us. Here you can set which consent you are allowing us with regards to the collection of general information, the placing of cookies of the collection of personal information. You can click 'Forget my settings' at the bottom of this form to revoke all given consents.

    Website statistics collect anonymized information about how the site is used. This information is used to optimize the website and to ensure an optimal user experience.

    View details

    Functional cookies are used to ensure the website works properly and are neccessary to make the site function. These cookies do not collect any personal data.  

    View details
    Forget my settings Deleted!