HCSS is proud to see our Taiwan crisis scenarios cited in the long-awaited report by Sauli Niinistö, former President of the Republic of Finland, “Safer Together: Strengthening Europe’s Civilian and Military Preparedness and Readiness” (PDF link), commissioned by the President of the European Commission.
In March 2024, HCSS published the report “The Cost of Conflict: Economic implications of a Taiwan military crisis for the Netherlands and the EU“, commissioned for the Netherlands House of Representatives and written by Joris Teer, Davis Ellison and Abe de Ruijter.
In this publication we set out the likely and possible consequences for critical sectors (e.g., the medical and defence industry) and the broader economy of the Netherlands and the EU, if China applies military power to change the status quo in its relations with Taiwan.
The Niinistö Report refrences the crisis scenarios from the HCSS study, the “Taiwan crisis storylines”, as follows:
“The potential economic and security impact of Chinese aggression against Taiwan or in the South China Sea would be staggering for Europe and the world – even in grey-zone scenarios in which China stops short of war, but escalates drawing on coercive measures, such as other forms of coercion, including the seizure of outlying islands, selective quarantines where China restricts traffic to and from Taiwan (e.g. ‘inspecting’ shipments), or even a full-blown blockade.
Given our deep economic ties with China, including asymmetric dependencies in key sectors, as well as supply chains from Taiwan (in particular in advanced semiconductors), this would lead to a drastic shock causing ripple effects around the world. The EU would face severe disruption in critical sectors, production shortages, and many years of economic and industrial adjustment, as well as mass layoffs and drastically lower living standards. In this regard, the security and prosperity of the Euro-Atlantic region are closely interconnected with those of the Indo-Pacific. In light of this, the EU should therefore strive to prepare for, but also to prevent, a major contingency in the Indo-Pacific, working closely with its partners in the region.”
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