Global trade is under pressure from rising geopolitical tensions. In response, the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS), in collaboration with the Dutch World Trade Centers, has launched a new tool: the Geopolitical Annual Trade Risk Index (GATRI). This innovative index quantifies the impact of diplomatic, economic, and military developments on international trade.
From tariffs to armed conflicts and political speeches — GATRI consolidates signals from around the world into a single, comprehensible score. It provides businesses with real-time insights into how global disruptions may impact supply chains and trade flows.
GATRI was officially launched on June 2, 2025, during World Trade Day in Eindhoven. Renowned international relations expert Prof. Rob de Wijk delivered a keynote on current geopolitical trends and officially unveiled the Index alongside Freerk Faber, board member of the World Trade Centers Association. HCSS data scientist Maarten Vonk demonstrated the tool live to the audience in Eindhoven and viewers worldwide via livestream.
A high-level panel followed the launch, featuring industry leaders such as Gerben Edelijn (CEO Thales NL), Peter Berdowski (Chairman of the Supervisory Board, Boskalis), Maurice Geraets (Executive Director, NXP), and Dirk-Jan Brouwer (Deputy Director for Economic Policy, Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs). Together, they discussed how geopolitical volatility impacts international business strategies.
With over a third of the Dutch GDP tied to global trade, the ability to assess geopolitical risk is becoming essential. GATRI provides a data-driven foundation for that effort. The Index begins at a baseline of 100: an increase signals improving trade conditions, while a drop reflects emerging risks or disruptions.
The tool is powered by over 5 million aggregated data points from 180 countries and will be updated annually to reflect ongoing developments.
GATRI is freely accessible at: https://gatri.app.hcss.nl
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