Exploring Demographic Shifts: Ageing and Migration in a Deeply Uncertain Dynamically Complex World, a paper produced by Erik Pruyt, Thomas Logtens, Govert Gijsbers, Tim Sweijs and Stephan de Spiegeleire in the context of the TNO Strategy and Change program, won the price for the Best Poster Presentation at the Poster Symposium of the System Dynamics Society. For more information, please contact Govert Gijsbers (TNO).
The work explored several economic, political and social implications of aging and aging-related demographic shifts are explored using System Dynamics models as scenario generators for Exploratory System Dynamics Modeling and Analysis. In Exploratory System Dynamics Modeling and Analysis, a plethora of uncertainties (pertaining to model structures, functions, scenarios, parameters) are used to generate thousands of plausible transient scenarios. The dynamic complexity of the resulting ‘ensemble of future worlds’ is analyzed to find robust policies. The national model is used to explore plausible effects on the sustainability of (Dutch) national health and social security systems, the economy, and the housing sector. Deep uncertainty related to the national model was dealt with during an Exploratory Group Model Specification and Simulation workshop at HCSS in which various Dutch experts generated and used alternative hypotheses for major uncertainties.
