Since classical antiquity, we have known that the enemy of my enemy is my friend. In 2026, President Trump is making it clear that the reverse is also true: the friend of my enemy is my enemy. I was reminded of this by the bizarre debate that followed Defence Minister Dilan Yeşilgöz’s use of the word ‘enemy’. One of the arguments against describing Russia as an ‘enemy’ is that doing so would imply an actual military conflict or an imminent war. Well, if I am to believe the warnings from intelligence agencies, that is precisely where we are heading. They say that a more serious test of NATO territory could take place within months. The growing number of acts of sabotage and attacks on ships in the exclusive economic zones of NATO countries seem to point in that direction.
‘Ally’ America is playing a major role in this escalation. What has happened over the past week defies description. While peace talks were taking place in Miami, Trump called his buddy Putin to discuss Russian diesel exports, which are in fact illegal under a law Trump himself signed. Zelensky was furious, calling the deal ‘terrible’ and arguing that the negotiations were merely a smokescreen for the arrangements between Putin and Trump. It was also strange that, according to Trump, Russia and Ukraine had agreed to a partial ceasefire, even though neither Zelensky nor Putin knew anything about it.
With this deal, Trump is making himself dependent on Putin. If he wants to win the upcoming midterm elections, he must put an end to complaints from his supporters about high diesel prices. But dependence creates vulnerability and leaves one open to blackmail. Putin understands this better than anyone: if Trump wants diesel, he must put pressure on Zelensky.
Kirill Dmitriev, a key adviser to Putin, implicitly confirmed this when he claimed that European leaders failed to understand what the diesel deal meant for world peace. His remarks suggested that the deal may indeed have been used to put pressure on Zelensky, whom Trump says must go because he does not want peace.
Strange things have happened since the deal was struck. Putin said he had no intention of pursuing peace negotiations and intensified attacks on Ukraine, including strikes on its energy sector. Suddenly, the United States stopped providing intelligence about a new ballistic missile attack. On Wednesday, it emerged that the speed of StarShield, the military version of Starlink, had been throttled without Ukraine being informed. The slowdown came after Elon Musk, the owner of the satellite communications system, retweeted a message from Trump saying that Zelensky must stop targeting oil refineries.
There is no proof, but the combination of these incidents is remarkably coincidental and fits a picture of a strategically calculating Putin and a cornered Trump.
So what are we to make of the rousing speech delivered in Warsaw by NATO Supreme Allied Commander Grynkewich, in which he set out his theory of victory in a war with Russia? Nothing at all, if only because his theory is already standard practice, America is failing military against Iran, it has squandered too much ammunition in pointless wars, and his boss, Trump, is consorting with the enemy.
Source: Trouw, Rob de Wijk, 15 October 2026
Experts
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