Real crises happen once, under conditions that cannot be repeated. ARENA replays the same crisis many times under different starting conditions and mid-crisis shocks, so its findings describe the range of ways a crisis could unfold rather than predicting a single outcome. It maps where a crisis is structurally fragile, which leaders drive escalation and which restrain it, and which combinations of events are most dangerous. ARENA is not a forecasting tool: its findings are offered as hypotheses for policy discussion, open to challenge and replication.