As maritime threats intensify and become more hybrid in nature, safeguarding the South China Sea and the Red Sea has become essential for Europe. Both regions face rising instability from great power rivalry, territorial disputes, blue crime, and environmental pressures, directly endangering sea lanes that carry a large share of international trade. These heightened risks now require European states to work more closely with littoral partners, including Egypt and Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea and Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam in the South China Sea. Europe must enhance its ability to prevent and respond to threats through collaborative measures that strengthen maritime governance, improve awareness, and build crisis management capacity.
This more volatile maritime environment compels Europe to reassess how it protects vital trade routes. Establishing a reliable framework for both preventive cooperation, focused on early detection and deterrence, and responsive cooperation, focused on joint action during incidents, has become central to maintaining secure and open seas. Evaluating threat levels and identifying where such measures are most effective is therefore crucial as Europe develops a more resilient and partnership driven approach to maritime security.
Guest Paper Series
For a new paper series, six guest authors explore key aspects of maritime security cooperation between Europe and rising middle powers. Each author presents the perspective of a different littoral state, specifically Egypt and Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea region, and Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam in the South China Sea. The series builds on insights from the report ‘Bridging Waters: Strengthening Europe’s Maritime Security Engagement Through Partnerships with Rising Middle Powers’ and the webinar Bridging Waters: Middle Powers’ Cooperation on Maritime Security, held on 18 November, which brought together maritime experts from both regions to discuss avenues for further collaboration. The discussion highlighted the need for strengthened partnerships to address growing instability and to safeguard maritime routes that are vital for international trade.
Paper 1 | EU-Philippines Cooperative Maritime Measures
The South China Sea is already a highly contested maritime space. As geopolitical tensions rise and environmental pressures deepen, modern maritime security has become increasingly complex, with economic, ecological, and strategic risks converging. For the Philippines, these challenges are acute, ranging from territorial incidents and destructive dredging to overexploited fisheries and growing pressure on coastal communities. Addressing them requires stronger partnerships and better tools for awareness and governance.
This HCSS guest paper by Charmaine Misalucha-Willoughby examines how Europe and the Philippines are expanding cooperation to manage these threats. As region-wide and bilateral mechanisms mature, the paper highlights progress in information sharing, capacity building, and maritime domain awareness. It identifies key challenges that still hinder effective action and shows how dual-use technologies, such as shared satellite monitoring and real-time vessel tracking, can help close the gap between existing commitments and operational needs.
Paper 2 | Navigating Great Power Rivalry through Maritime Cooperation
Great power rivalry in the South China Sea has shifted regional security dynamics, with daily grey zone encounters posing greater immediate risks than open conflict. In this contested environment, Indonesia finds itself on the frontline of coercive maritime activities, while Europe faces the erosion of the rules-based order it seeks to uphold. Yet the EU’s ability to engage is constrained by limited geopolitical bandwidth and competing priorities closer to home.
This HCSS guest paper by Shafiah F. Muhibat (CSIS Indonesia) examines how the EU can remain a relevant security actor in the Indo-Pacific by adopting a focused, non-escalatory approach to maritime cooperation. Rather than pursuing military balancing, the paper argues that Europe should build on Indonesia’s diplomatic weight, operational experience, and non-aligned credibility to support preventive measures. This includes targeted joint training, legal and procedural capacity-building, and enhanced maritime domain awareness. Together, these low-footprint initiatives offer a realistic pathway for mitigating grey zone tensions without amplifying great power rivalry.
Editors: Pieter-Jan Vandoren, Benedetta Girardi, Thomas Jansen
Quality Assurance: Paul Sinning
The research for and production of this report has been conducted within the PROGRESS research framework agreement. Responsibility for the contents and for the opinions expressed, rests solely with the authors and does not constitute, nor should be construed as, an endorsement by the Netherlands Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Defence.
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