On Wednesday 15 October, HCSS Research Director Dr. Tim Sweijs joined a conversation with Estonia’s former President Toomas Hendrik Ilves at De Balie in Amsterdam. Together with moderator Yoeri Albrecht, they discussed Europe’s security challenges now that Russia is increasingly testing the borders of NATO-territory.
With Russian MiG-31 fighter jets violating Estonian airspace just weeks earlier, the discussion explored how the Baltic states, long at the frontline between Russia and the West, are responding to renewed threats ranging from cyberattacks to airspace incursions.
Former President Ilves’ long and distinguished career, including his presidency (2006–2016), guided Estonia through a period marked by escalating Russian cyber aggression and disinformation campaigns. He played a pivotal role in steering Estonia to its current status as a confident EU and NATO member. His insights reflected decades of leadership, experience, and dedication.
Former President Ilves delivered a stark warning about the stakes of the war:
“If Ukraine does not win, the mother of all refugee crises will emerge, and will make 2015 look like child’s play.”
Dr. Sweijs, recently back from a trip to Ukraine, reflected on the challenges the country continues to face and the immediate and ongoing need for Western support. He noted that if such support is provided, Ukraine not only has a chance to survive as a sovereign state but is increasingly showing resilience and capacity to improve its position.
The discussion also highlighted the urgency to rethink how the West approaches Russia — combining hard power with soft power and the need to shift the thinking of Russian elites and broader society. It was noted that Western European leaders continue to be blinded by bias, underlining the importance of clear, unified responses and adjusting our worldview.
The evening offered sobering yet insightful perspectives on the continuing shadow war unfolding across Europe’s eastern frontier — and a reminder that the defence of democracy requires both vigilance and unity.
Watch the livestream here:
About the speakers
- Toomas Hendrik Ilves, President of Estonia from 2006 to 2016, has been a key figure in shaping Estonia’s post-Soviet transformation and its role in Europe. Born in Sweden to Estonian refugee parents who fled Soviet occupation and mass deportation to Siberia, Ilves was deeply influenced by their experience of displacement. Before becoming president, he served as Estonia’s Ambassador to the United States and played a pivotal role in Estonia’s accession to the European Union and NATO in 2004. Durign his presidency he focused on Estonia’s digital innovation and cybersecurity and European integration.
- Dr. Tim Sweijs is research director at the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS). He conducts research on the changing nature of armed conflict and advises governments, international organizations, and (military) decision-makers on defense and security. He recently co-authored “De Oorlog van morgen” (The War of Tomorrow) with Martijn Kitzen.
- Claudia Heinermann is a freelance photographer, dedicated primarily to long-term documentary projects and contemporary historical issues as well as genocide and the consequences of war. She has worked in countries such as Bosnia, Russia, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Belgium, Germany and Rwanda.
The programme was expertly put together by Veronica Baas.
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