When looking at climate change and natural disasters, the focus of governments and companies is increasingly shifting from mitigation to adaptation, or ‘resilience’: how do we make sure systems bounce back as quickly as possible once a disaster has struck?

Download the new HSD Issue Brief with the button on the right.

As the NATO combat mission in Afghanistan draws to an end, the ‘West’ is starting to take a hard look back at two decades of global stabilization efforts. The ‘lessons learned’ literature on these efforts is exploding. One of the dominant themes in this literature is the need to embed the specifically military toolkit into a much more comprehensive, integrated approach towards planning and executing such operations.

In this forward-looking report, HCSS goes a step further by focusing not on the operational but on the strategic level of decision-making. Today, this strategic layer is driven much more by domestic and international ‘politicking’ than by creative strategic thinking. This report advocates a new approach to strategic decision-making which we label ‘strategic design’. It summarizes and borrows some key insights from the ‘design thinking’ literature in the business and public management literature and applies those to the security challenges surrounding stabilization efforts. The report then illustrates this approach by developing and evaluating a few ‘design sketches’ for new capability elements that even a small force provider like The Netherlands could start developing.

The report might be of interest to strategic planners and decision-makers on both the military and civilians side.

The report can be downloaded with the button on the right. 
 

Providing analysis of what is happening in other countries remains an important task for our Ministries of Foreign Affairs. Much of this analysis currently continues to be done in the way in which it has been done for a very long time. Yet it is clear that the sources that can be used for this type of analysis are changing extremely rapidly. The same holds for the tools that can be used to analyze those sources.

In an ever more interdependent world, foreign policy affects the security and prosperity of every single individual in ever more fundamental and far-reaching ways. It therefore stands to reason that this area deserves and requires an applied analytical effort that is commensurate with the one we now afford ourselves in the key domestic policy areas. This would mean endowing our foreign policy decision-makers with a similarly thorough evidence- and knowledge-base from which they could start designing more evidence-based foreign policies. But is this even possible? Are such datasets available in the field of foreign policy? Can new data- and text-mining tools be applied to them? And what would the results from such an effort look like?

As a ‘proof-of-concept’, this project represents an attempt to explore the usefulness of these new data sources and data analysis tools. HCSS set out to construct a new database consisting of all retrievable text-based webpages from the Ministries of Foreign Affairs of seven important countries. The international HCSS team developed and combined a number of tools in order to download and textmine these websites, and to then present and visualize the results. We then proceeded with our preliminary analysis of the data. We pursued two different research tracks: one in which we let the websites speak for themselves (‘inside-out’), and another in which we asked the websites some targeted question (‘outside-in’). Both approaches yielded some fascinating results that would have been impossible to obtain in any other way.

Download the report with the button on the right.
 

Tussen nu en 2030 zullen zich binnen de energiesector de volgende ontwikkelingen voordoen:

1. verschuivingen tussen centrale en decentrale productie
2. grote hoeveelheden hernieuwbare energie
3. meer elektriciteit
4. mogelijkheden voor sturing elektriciteitsvraag
5. meer interactie tussen vraag en aanbod van zowel elektriciteit, gas als warmte

Dat blijkt uit de ‘Scenario-ontwikkeling energievoorziening 2030’ die CE Delft samen met DNV GL heeft verricht voor Netbeheer Nederland.

Aan de hand van de analyses en berekeningen zijn elf aanbevelingen opgesteld die het verloop van de discussie over de toekomstige energievoorziening en de rol van de energie-infrastructuur vorm geven.

De scenario’s geven inzicht in 5 mogelijke ontwikkelingspaden en in financiële, economische en technische randvoorwaarden voor de diverse scenario’s. De opzet van de studie is een macro-economische benadering van de gehele energievoorziening (elektriciteit, warmte, transport) waarbij is gekeken naar het energetisch gebruik van energiebronnen. De ontwikkelde scenario’s zijn gebaseerd op de backcastingmethodiek, waarbij allereerst eindbeelden voor 2030 zijn gedefinieerd.

De scenario’s zijn geanalyseerd op de volgende onderdelen: betrouwbaarheid van de energievoorziening; duurzaamheid; barrières; kosten; netconsequenties.
Naast de financiële aspecten zijn ook de gevolgen voor de energie-infrastructuur in kaart gebracht.

Het rapport en de uitgebreide bijlagen waarin alles is toegelicht, zijn hier te downloaden.

�“Nederland zet de toon voor een betrokken buitenlandbeleid inzake grondstoffen waarin, met respect voor de rol van nieuwe spelers, hun investeringskracht en groeipotentieel, gezocht wordt naar nieuwe wegen voor samenwerking. Een voorzieningszekerheidsbeleid dat vanuit geopolitieke optiek is vormgegeven en nauw verweven is met het veiligheidsbeleid, is van het grootste belang.”

Dit is te lezen in de Juli/Augustus editie van de Internationale Spectator. Het artikel is geschreven door Pim Kraan, werkzaam bij het Ministerie van Buitenlandse Zaken, Focal Point Grondstoffen, Extractive Industries Unit, en is hieronder te downloaden.

De PDF van dit artikel is met toestemming van de redactie overgenomen uit de Internationale Spectator, maandblad voor internationale politiek, uitgegeven door de Koninklijke Van Gorcum te Assen namens het Nederlands Instituut voor Internationale Betrekkingen ‘Clingendael’ te Den Haag.

In recent years, the development of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), or ‘drones’, has grown dramatically, resulting in millions of UAVs being deployed for a wide variety of purposes worldwide.

The Netherlands is also witnessing a growing interest in the use of UAVs among governments and the private sector. For law enforcement and emergency services the use of UAVs offers opportunities to improve public safety and protect national security interests.
With this in mind, the latest HSD Issue Brief takes a closer look at how UAVs can contribute to enhancing public safety and our national security; the challenges being faced in introducing UAVs for this purpose; and suggests various solutions to boost the fledgling UAV industry in the Netherlands whilst facilitating safe use of UAVs by public and commercial partners.

However, clear regulation on UAVS in the Netherlands is currently lacking and as such, companies in the Netherlands wishing to break into this market may find themselves at a competitive disadvantage. Issues also arise from the security vulnerabilities of UAVs, which might be ‘hackable’ and safety concerns about the proliferation of unmanned vehicles in civil airspace. In addition, privacy is a major issue when it comes to the use and legislation of UAVs, as they can easily be used for unlawful surveillance.
In order to mitigate these issues, and give a boost to the industry in the Netherlands, drafting of legislation and regulations to effectively govern the use and development of UAVs is essential. Adequate testing areas, an interdepartmental policy and the establishment of a ‘triple helix’ group consisting of knowledge institutes, industry and government, are also recommended.

You can download the HSD Issue Brief with the button on the right.

Who are the real kingmakers in global security affairs? Journalists and historians alike tend to focus on great powers. Great powers, after all, are involved in the lion's share of interstate crises and conflicts around the globe. But a closer look reveals that great powers’ interests generally collide and clash over those countries ‘caught in the middle’. From Egypt to Afghanistan, from Georgia to Ukraine, and from Serbia to Syria: the real pivot states are invariably located at the seams of the international system.

The innovative and data-driven study Why are Pivot States so Pivotal?  examines the potential cauldrons of future crisis & conflict by identifying the pivot states in the contemporary security environment.

Download the report with the button on the right

In recent years, rapid technological progress has led to a wholesale destruction of middle-level jobs and a substantial rise in income inequality. It could also bring an era of high structural unemployment. These impacts constitute a major challenge that cannot be ignored by policymakers. They affect the fundamentals of our labor market – and might severely shake the social structure and stability of our society.

This new report examines the impacts of technology on the European labor market. The report documents that technological innovation brings not only immense benefits but also significant dislocations in the labor market by making many jobs redundant. HCSS calls upon policymakers to take the risks of job polarization, increased inequality and potentially high technological unemployment quite seriously and suggests some policy measures that could mitigate these risks.The study was conducted in the context of the TNO Strategy & Change program. To download the report, please click on the button on the right.

The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS) is proud to present 'LGBT Military Personnel: a Strategic Vision for Inclusion', from the creators of the LGBT Military Index.

Diversity and Military Effectiveness
Improving inclusion for lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) service members is more than a matter of ‘doing the right thing’: it is a matter of military effectiveness. A groundbreaking new report from The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies, a defense think tank, argues that militaries must embrace diversity in order to survive and thrive in the twenty-first century security environment.

Download the report with the button on the right.
 

Private investeringen in onderzoek hebben in Nederland de afgelopen twintig jaar minimaal een factor 2,3 bijgedragen aan het BBP. Dit blijkt uit de studie ‘De Staat van Nederland Innovatieland’ van TNO en The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies.

Deze werd 18 juni samen met Brainport Development in Eindhoven gepresenteerd aan vertegenwoordigers van het bedrijfsleven, overheid en kennisinstellingen.

Download het rapport met de button rechts.

From London to Lagos, from New York to New Delhi – modern cities are built on a dense jungle of wires and cables that form the indispensable infrastructures of our city life. Information and Communication Technology are the artery system that helps fuel economic growth, and makes cities more ‘smart’ and livable.

But this has also created new vulnerabilities. ICT failure can easily send a cascade of effects throughout our economy and society. The complexity of our cities makes it impossible to fully eliminate such threats. We can, however, develop strategies aimed at rapidly bouncing back when threats materialize. This Issue Brief elaborates on how cyber resilience strategies can help cities deal with risks in a hyper-connected world.

You can download the HSD Issue Brief with the button on the right.
 

Since the Arab Spring, conflict in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) has rapidly intensified. The drivers of these conflicts are still present and could spark future violence. This report looks at the vulnerability of MENA states to future conflict, and how this may impact Europe. We look at the four types of vulnerability:

• Political turmoil is a primary driver of conflict in countries confronted with regime changes, or with regimes facing existential threats. Such states are less apt at mitigating turmoil, and fragile institutions create an incentive for people and groups to try and shape the political context.
• The Arab Spring has amplified economic and social problems in many countries, especially in states already severely affected by the upheavals. In richer Gulf countries, food and water scarcity are predominantly economic concerns that governments can buy-off by subsidizing consumption, by importing water and food, or by investing in desalination and irrigation.
• Fuel export dependent countries that rely on oil and gas revenues to fill state coffers are more vulnerable to a decline in oil price, particularly when they have limited financial buffers.
• Religious and ethnic tensions may erupt due to people looking for a state, or sizeable ethnic and/or religious groups vying for state control.

A second part of the study looks at how conflict could spill-over to Europe, affecting the security and economic interests of states on the continent. Specifically, it looks at large scale refugee inflows, illegal immigration, and human trafficking; European jihadi fighters coming home; oil price spikes and disruption of import flows; and (non)-fuel trade flows and poor return on investment.

You can download the study with the button on the right.

This study is part of the Strategic Monitor 2014, an innovative new report by The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS) that draws on in-depth research and cutting-edge analytical tools to explore some key trends and challenges to our global security environment. The report consists of four studies focusing on the following themes:

• Great power assertiveness;
• The role of pivot states in regional and global security;
• Vulnerable states in the Middle East and North Africa;
• The growing role of non-state actors in security affairs.

This study points to worrying trends in how far two great power contenders, Russia and China, have been willing to go to assert themselves in the international arena. It concludes that increased willingness to resort to brinkmanship has heightened the danger of a ‘Cuban Missile Crisis’-type event that could spiral into uncontrollable escalation.

Based on a several unique new datasets that were specifically assembled for this project, as well as a number of different analytical tools and methods, this study provides quantitative evidence that great power assertiveness has risen significantly over the past few decades. China’s assertiveness has increased most sharply (by about 50% since 1979), but remains at a lower level than Russia’s, which has risen more modestly yet still shows a marked increase since President Putin’s third term in office. Second, both countries’ assertive deeds surpass their rhetoric, which should be a cause for concern: they walk the walk even more than they talk the talk. This applies to both the military, political and economic domains. However, one positive conclusion is that non-confrontational forms of assertiveness continue to outweigh the aggressive actions of both countries. And finally, China increasingly flexes its military muscle. Russia presents a more mixed picture, although here too the Russian baseline remains significantly higher than the Chinese one.

You can download the study with the button on the right.

This study is part of the Strategic Monitor 2014, an innovative new report by The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS) that draws on in-depth research and cutting-edge analytical tools to explore some key trends and challenges to our global security environment. The report consists of four studies focusing on the following themes:

• Great power assertiveness;
• The role of pivot states in regional and global security;
• Vulnerable states in the Middle East and North Africa;
• The growing role of non-state actors in security affairs.

You can find our report here.

Decades of rising prosperity and increasing interdependence between states have significantly diminished the chance of direct conflict. But new security challenges now threaten to undermine this trend. The HCSS Strategic Monitor 2014 explores four such challenges to our global security environment: assertiveness of China and Russia, the rise of ‘pivot states’, instability in the MENA region, and the changing role of non-state actors in security issues.

It yields four main conclusions:

1. There has been a marked rise in the assertiveness of great powers in recent years, made manifest in ever more confrontational moves, from the Russian annexation of the Crimea to the enhanced Chinese presence in the South-Chinese Sea. This implies a significant increase in the chance of great power conflict.
2. Tensions manifest themselves primarily in ‘pivot states’, such as Ukraine, where the spheres of influence of rival great powers overlap.
3. Regional conflict and instability are edging ever closer to the periphery of Europe. Many MENA states remain vulnerable to specific forms of conflict.
4. Security threats, and particularly solutions, will come more and more from non-state actors.

The report was presented on May 21st 2014 to the Dutch Minister of Defense, Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert. The minister commended the report, stating that it demonstrates “that there is no standard, catch-all recipe for deploying military force […] we must be prepared for a plurality of operations.” She went on to say that “the Strategic Monitor is a crucial tool for our Defense policy development.” She also expressed hope that the developments identified in the report will be incorporated in the current and ongoing security debate, especially since “[Dutch] society is slowly regaining its awareness of the value of defense. People are waking up.”

You can download the Strategic Monitor 2014 report (in English) with the button on the right.

You can download the (Dutch) press release here
 

Many major global cities today are developing a recognizable international profile to become vibrant and attractive hubs to live, work and play. While some cities promote their architecture, quality of life, or the creativity of their industries for this purpose, the city of The Hague enhances its international reputation by emphasizing the presence of prominent international institutions.

This global standing has been further improved through the Nuclear Security Summit (NSS), the largest conference ever held in the city involving the most comprehensive security precautions ever seen on Dutch soil. Such international profiling initiatives yield a wide range of opportunities, but they also present risks as they impact local economic activity and urban livability.

The second HSD Issue Brief disentangles these concerns and dilemmas, and suggests ways to find a more effective balance between security and livability in cities. 

Download the Issue Brief with the button on the right.