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Political violence is real and present. How, why and when political violence manifests itself is crucial for turning early warning into early action. The earlier decision- and policymakers are made aware of the potential for imminent outbursts of violence, the sooner they can act to manage or mitigate the consequences or even deter the occurrence altogether. With a wealth of data and models available, it is time to reap the fruits of the data revolution. Looking at the HCSS Political Violence Monitor: what are the 10 countries most at risk of civil wars, coup d’états or state led mass killings?

The global commentariat has relentlessly bombarded international op-ed pages with accounts of crises, risks, and global dangers. And this is not without reason: we certainly live in times of great geopolitical upheaval. But we must not lose sight of the other side of the security coin, one that recognizes societal resilience as a counterweight to conflict and as a pillar of peace. This Monthly Alert counterbalances the gloom and doom that suffuses our current Zeitgeist. It flags 10 promising global trends and highlights the opportunities they yield for the global economy, security, governance, socio-economic development and global health. These trends pose groundbreaking possibilities for policymakers and can provide new avenues for future policies to make our world a better place. Each trend description includes hyperlinks to articles that offer background information and a list of ‘must read’ literature discussing their opportunities within their wider contexts.

Monthly Alerts are created by HCSS and the Clingendael Institute as part of the PROGRESS Strategic Monitor.

Download the Alert via the button on the right.

The rising demand for natural resources including energy, minerals and agricultural products, has been driven mainly by population growth in developing countries and an improvement in living standards in many countries around the world. Various factors however serve to limit the availability of natural resources. First of all, resources are not equally distributed across the globe. Second, there are serious environmental consequences to expanding production and consumption of natural resources, such as climate change. Third, natural resource extraction and export can be hampered by armed conflict. Finally, large exporters at times choose to restrict the export of certain commodities, for instance to promote domestic growth.

Open, transparent, and well-functioning markets for metals, minerals and other natural resources are essential for ensuring access to supply and to safeguard the economic wellbeing of nations worldwide. However, corruption, political instability and violence are factors that act as important constraints to growth in the production of natural resources and cause economic pain in countries that depend on their import.

As the second largest importer and transit hub of critical raw materials in the European Union (EU), the Netherlands has a vital interest in ensuring that global resource markets function in an open and transparent manner within a rule-based order. This report, commissioned by the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA), takes a closer look at the global institutional architecture that focuses on the governance of natural resources, abiotic minerals and metals in particular. In doing so, this study seeks to identify gaps in the thematic coverage and actor representation, and come up with ways in which the Dutch MFA can improve the way it advances Dutch interests with respect to the functioning of natural resource markets. Thematically, the study devotes particular attention to the issue of security of supply, as well as sustainability (e.g., resource efficiency and environmental care) and transparency (due diligence, human rights etc.). Finally, the study identifies points of intervention in relation to specific organizations and raw materials where the MFA can exert the most influence.

The report can be downloaded using the button on the right.

In order to remain on top of the rapid changes in the international environment, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of Defence have tasked The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS) to conduct research on global trends and risks, within the framework of the Strategic Monitor. Over the past few years HCSS has provided for on-going analysis of relevant trends and conducted foresight exercises. Please find an overview of all Strategic Monitor reports below. 

For more information about the Strategic Monitor 2018, please click here.

Click on the image to download the PDF.

2016-2017 Volatility and Friction in the Age of Disintermediation                            

                                                                             

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2015-2016: The Wheel of Fortune: Up and Down, Round and Round, Faster and Faster 

 

2014-2015: The Return of Ghosts Hoped Past? Global Trends in Conflict and Cooperation                                                        

                                                                             

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2013-2014: Four Strategic Challenges 

 

2012-2013: De Toekomst in Alle Staten 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other reports part of the StratMon program that focus on specific topics:

2016 Great Power Assertivitis

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2016 Better Together: Towards a New Cooperation Portfolio for Defense 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2016 Back to the Brink 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2016 Si vis pacem, para utique pacem: individual empowerment, societal resilience and the armed forces

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Epidemics and Strategic Timing

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pushing the Boundaries 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Barbarism and Religion

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

From Assertiveness to Aggression 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Vital European and Dutch Security Interests Alert considers key security discourses of principal stakeholders concerning vital European and Dutch security interests. Documents such as the Strategie Nationale Veiligheid, de Internationale Veiligheidsstrategie, Defense Strategy publications, the NATO Strategic Concept and the EU Global Strategy serve as the basis for this Alert. Based on a monthly summary of emerging affairs gathered through an annotated list of publications from think tanks, academic outlets, and expert blogs, the Alert also considers more specific issues as they emerge in the Dutch security discourse.

Monthly Alerts are created by HCSS and the Clingendael Institute as part of the PROGRESS Strategic Monitor.

Authors: Karlijn Jans, Tim Sweijs, Kars de Bruijne, Minke Meijnders

Download the Alert via the button on the right.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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May 25th marks the first visit of U.S. President Trump to Europe. It will also be the first time the newly-elected U.S. President will attend a NATO gathering. Besides opening NATO’s new headquarters, leaders will discuss NATO’s burden sharing, counterterrorism actions and tense relations with Russia. High on the meeting’s agenda will be the 2% GDP defense spending pledge, a topic that has dominated NATO’s airwaves again since President Trump took office. The US administration has been clear about its demand for its European partners to spend more of their national budgets on defense and adhere to the Wales 2% GDP spending pledge. The EU-NATO partnership has meanwhile gained in importance. The potential of enhanced cooperation between the EU and NATO is clear: more efficient defense spending will yield both more and better capabilities, and in turn boost NATO’s defense posture. This alert sets out the key strategic challenges and opportunities and offers four recommendations for the leaders of state meeting in Brussels.

Read the alert by downloading the document via the button on the right. 

Photo credit: DOD photo by U.S. Air Force Master Sgt. Jerry Morrison [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons

De NAVO-Top markeert het eerste bezoek van de Amerikaanse President Trump aan Europa, waar hij ook de pas gekozen Franse President Macron zal ontmoeten. Naast de opening van het nieuwe hoofdkwartier van de NAVO, zullen de leiders spreken over de lastenverdeling binnen de NAVO, de gespannen betrekkingen met Rusland en maatregelen in de strijd tegen het terrorisme.

De discussie rondom de 2% BBP NAVO-norm zal de berichtgeving domineren, maar deze Alert stipt vooral het belang van het partnerschap tussen de EU en de NAVO in de lastenverlichtingsdiscussie aan. Het potentieel van een betere samenwerking tussen de EU en de NAVO is duidelijk, maar de bredere en snel ontwikkelende strategische context binnen het NAVO bondgenootschap (Brexit, de ontwikkelingen in Turkije en de onvoorspelbaarheid van het Amerikaans leiderschap) zullen hun uitwerking hebben op het succes van deze samenwerking.

Deze Strategic Alert bevat, naast de belangrijkste strategische uitdagingen rondom de NAVO special meeting, vier aanbevelingen voor de leiders in Brussel. Het document is te downloaden via de knop rechts.

De volgende Strategic Alert zal in september verschijnen op de Strategische Monitor-website, die in ontwikkeling is. Zodra deze website online gaat, zal hierover nader worden bericht.

Photo credit: DOD photo by U.S. Air Force Master Sgt. Jerry Morrison [Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons

Artificial intelligence (AI) is on everybody’s minds these days. Most of the world’s leading companies are making massive investments in it. Governments are scrambling to catch up. Every single one of us who uses Google Search or any of the new digital assistants on our smartphones has witnessed first-hand how quickly these developments now go. Many analysts foresee truly disruptive changes in education, employment, health, knowledge generation, mobility, etc. But what will AI mean for defense and security?

In a new study HCSS offers a unique perspective on this question. Most studies to date quickly jump from AI to autonomous (mostly weapon) systems. They anticipate future armed forces that mostly resemble today’s armed forces, engaging in fairly similar types of activities with a still primarily industrial-kinetic capability bundle that would increasingly be AI-augmented. The authors of this study argue that AI may have a far more transformational impact on defense and security whereby new incarnations of ‘armed force’ start doing different things in novel ways. The report sketches a much broader option space within which defense and security organizations (DSOs) may wish to invest in successive generations of AI technologies. It suggests that some of the most promising investment opportunities to start generating the sustainable security effects that our polities, societies and economies expect may lie in in the realms of prevention and resilience. Also in those areas any large-scale application of AI will have to result from a preliminary open-minded (on all sides) public debate on its legal, ethical and privacy implications. The authors submit, however, that such a debate would be more fruitful than the current heated discussions about ‘killer drones’ or robots. Finally, the study suggests that the advent of artificial super-intelligence (i.e. AI that is superior across the board to human intelligence), which many experts now put firmly within the longer-term planning horizons of our DSOs, presents us with unprecedented risks but also opportunities that we have to start to explore.

The report contains an overview of the role that ‘intelligence’ - the computational part of the ability to achieve goals in the world - has played in defense and security throughout human history; a primer on AI (what it is, where it comes from and where it stands today - in both civilian and military contexts); a discussion of the broad option space for DSOs it opens up; 12 illustrative use cases across that option space; and a set of recommendations for - especially - small- and medium sized defense and security organizations.

The report can be downloaded via the button on the right. 

Authors Stephan De Spiegeleire and Tim Sweijs were interviewed (in Dutch) by NOS op 3 about AI and concerns about 'killer robots.' The interview can be read here.

 

 

The nexus between natural resources and security needs to be better understood and more closely monitored. Climate change exacerbates environmental challenges and natural resources scarcity which are contributing factors to the onset of political violence both within and between states. A more granular grasp of the dynamics involved in these risk multipliers through the use of integrated datasets will allow for enhanced situational awareness and enable timely action. It requires concerted action and closer coordination by vital political, military, diplomatic and societal stakeholders from the public and private sector across the globe. This Issue Brief summarizes the key takeaways of a meeting of a Global Expert Group that convened at the Future Force Conference held in The Hague, the Netherlands, in February 2017. The Brief highlights the contributions by principal experts from the panel and the audience and outlines ten recommendations for future action.

Authors: Yulia Aleshchenkova, Alberto Pallecchi, Kitty van der Heijden, Tim Sweijs

Download the Issue Brief via the button on the right. 

At the Paris Climate Conference held in December 2015, 195 countries adopted the Paris Agreement – the first universal, legally binding global climate deal. The signatory parties committed themselves to a global action plan that aims to keep global warming to well below 2°C and to limit the global temperature increase to 1.5°C.

As part of our Geo-Economics research initiative, The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies has investigated the geopolitical consequences of climate mitigation and energy transition among a number of countries richly endowed in hydrocarbons who potentially stand to lose a significant part of their revenue stream as a result of demand changes for fossil fuels. If demand for oil and gas demand were to decrease as a result of successful climate mitigation policies, the financial and social stability of these countries will – ceteris paribus – be negatively affected, especially if they fail to reform their domestic economies.

The presented study, entitled The Geopolitical Impact of Climate Mitigation Policies, employs a number of innovative investigative methods and analytical approaches to generate insights regarding sociopolitical stability in the wake of the world’s transition to renewable energy systems in a number of major oil- and gas-exporting nations near Europe. On top of this, the report looks closely at the energy situation in Sub-Saharan Africa and analyzes in detail which choices developing nations face with respect to their future energy mix.

Given the deep, and complex relationship between the global energy sector and international politics, these findings have numerous implications – both short and long term – for our future efforts to combat climate change while simultaneously fending off any consequential drivers of sociopolitical instability.

Download the study via the button on the right.

Op 20 februari hebben het Den Haag Centrum voor Strategische Studies (HCSS) en Instituut Clingendael hun Monitors gepresenteerd. Beide instituten brengen sinds 2012 jaarlijks hun monitor uit als onderdeel van de Strategische Monitor van de Nederlandse overheid. Bert Koenders, minister van Buitenlandse Zaken, nam de studies namens het kabinet in ontvangst.

Rob de Wijk sprak hierover met het NCTV magazine Nationale Veiligheid en Crisisbeheersing: “De grote uitdagingen zijn een goed moment om ons te bezinnen over de wijze waarop wij invulling willen geven aan het veiligheidsbeleid van Nederland, te meer omdat het kabinet uitgaat van comprehensive security."

Het volledige artikel kunt u rechts downloaden en werd gepubliceerd in het Magazine Nationale Veiligheid en Crisisbeheersing.

De HCSS Strategische Monitor vindt u hier.

In mei 2015 kondigde de minister van Veiligheid en Justitie aan dat de Strategie Nationale Veiligheid (SNV) wordt herijkt.Er werd gekozen voor een nieuwe aanpak waarvan het nieuwe Nationaal Veiligheidsprofiel een belangrijk zichtbaar resultaat is. Dit veiligheidsprofiel is inderdaad een breuk met het verleden en vormt een nieuwe start voor de verdere ontwikkeling van de SNV.

Rob de Wijk schreef hier een artikel over voor het Magazine Nationale Veiligheid en Crisisbeheersing. 

U kunt het volledige artikel rechts downloaden.

During the North Atlantic Council in Warsaw of 8-9 July 2016, NATO declared that its essential mission is unchanged. It was also stated that NATO will ensure that it has the full range of capabilities necessary to deter and defend against potential adversaries and the full spectrum of threats that could confront the Alliance from any direction.

Cyberattacks present a clear challenge to the security of the Alliance and could be as harmful to modern societies as a conventional attack. For that reason, the Member States agreed in Warsaw that cyber defense is part of NATO's core task of collective defense and NATO's defensive mandate, and that cyberspace is recognized as a separate domain of operations in which NATO must defend itself as effectively as it does in the air, on land, and at sea. Furthermore, it will ensure more effective organization of NATO's cyber defense and better management of resources, skills, and capabilities.

HCSS conducted research on both the concept of Cyberspace as a Domain for NATO and on the question whether the existing NATO cyberspace capabilities cover the whole spectrum of those required as a result of recognizing  cyberspace as a domain of operations.

The research results are available at HCSS. The report is not available for the public.

There are all kinds of new applications in development today that make increasingly smarter use of Big Data. Take for example the recent announcements that judicial decisions can be predicted by computers. In the security domain there are numerous possibilities to use these technologies too. At the same time the security domain bears the risk of exclusion and inducing mistrust among the civilian population regarding the limitless use of personal data. This report outlines how to develop technologies responsibly for this challenging domain.

Big Data is the next great opportunity for security organizations and individuals alike. The idea is to feed a computer with large amounts of data in order to perform faster and more accurate analyses and create a real-time, situational understanding of security situations. At this point however, the technological developments remain in a state of flux.

The authors hope to inspire the reader and increase awareness as well as provide insights into how to develop responsible Big Data applications for security.

This report provides a description of technological developments and explains how these developments can be used to support more responsible, effective and efficient security.

Three of the most prevailing observations are:

1. Big Data and High Performance Computing have a very large set of multifaceted capabilities to contribute to security.
2. For the acceptance of the applications, society, public organizations and the corporate business world should establish a framework on the eligibility of these developments.
3. Decisions affecting humanity are increasingly being taken by computers, which raises tremendous responsibility regarding the correctness and ethical values represented in Artificial Intelligence.

The observations evoke, among others, the following five questions that will be addressed in this report:

• What are computers able to do with Big Data?
• What do we ask from the computers?
• What is desirable to ask from the computers?
• What happens in practice at this moment?
• What should be the Call for Action?

Powerpoint presentation

The report can be downloaded using the button on the right.

De inzet van desinformatie en nepnieuws van Russische zijde is aan de orde van de dag. Afgelopen jaar intervenieerde Rusland in de Amerikaanse presidentiële verkiezingscampagne om de kandidatuur van Hillary Clinton te verzwakken. Begin dit jaar verspreidden Russische trollen valse berichten over de seksuele geaardheid van de Franse presidentskandidaat Emmanuel Macron. Ook Nederland is niet gevrijwaard van Russische propaganda activiteiten, zoals omtrent de bevindingen van de Onderzoeksraad voor de Veiligheid over het neerschieten van vlucht MH17.  Deze activiteiten ondermijnen de democratische rechtsorde en het vertrouwen van burgers in haar instituties en waarden. In deze issue brief schetsen wij de omvang van deze activiteiten en doen zeven aanbevelingen voor wat de Nederlandse samenleving kan doen om zich hier beter tegen te beschermen.

Lees de Issue Brief

Auteurs: Michel Rademaker (HCSS), Tim Sweijs (HCSS), Joris Voorhoeve (Hoogleraar Internationale Organisaties, Universiteit Leiden).