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This snapshot considers the path forward for Dutch defense planning. While the Netherlands has a relatively small defense budget, wise investment in innovation for the future will allow these funds to go a long way in preparing for coming developments in warfare, especially as the coronavirus crisis highlights the need for better governmental budgeting. In particular, it is necessary to anticipate the rising importance of the cyber and hybrid-warfare domains and increase capabilities in these areas. This requires research, testing, and implementation of new technologies with collaboration across the different parts of the Dutch military forces, as well as a rethinking of the nature of military tasks and aims. In general, a move from nationally oriented, classical defense to modern, future-oriented strategies and skills is vital to maintaining and augmenting the Netherlands’ relevance on the international defense stage as a valuable partner in NATO and the European Union.

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Photo credit: US Airforce

Satellites, Space Exploration, and the Netherlands’ National Security

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The economic relevance of space is substantive and growing. Currently, space’s value is primarily derived from satellites orbiting Earth. A 2019 study found that 87.5% of the $277bn in revenues generated in space could be attributed to commercial satellite services. These services are of critical importance to the functioning of the (inter)national economy. Positioning, timing, and navigation (PNT), communications, and Earth observation services form the backbone of many essential processes, such as fleet management or bank transactions. They are also key to the Netherlands’ military capabilities. Several strategic processes, from the execution of beyond line of sight (BLOS) operations to nuclear deterrence, are dependent on satellites. In the long term, space is also likely to play a role in the global energy transition. For example, the rare earth elements (REEs) contained in celestial bodies are in increasingly limited supply on Earth and are required for many renewable technologies.

As interstate competition heats up, an increasing number of states – more than 80 in 2018, compared to 50 in 2008 – have launched satellites into orbit. This, along with reductions in the cost of launching payloads, introduces both threats and opportunities from the Dutch perspective. Well-managed, commercially proactive, and internationally regulated initiatives to unlock and safeguard the space domain’s huge potential could contribute to European strategic autonomy, to the energy transition, and to a continued economic growth. Badly managed initiatives could see an intensification of interstate competition and the deterioration of public services.

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DISCLAIMER: The research for and production of this report has been conducted within the PROGRESS research framework agreement. Responsibility for the contents and for the opinions expressed, rests solely with the authors and does not constitute, nor should be construed as, an endorsement by the Netherlands Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Defence.

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This policy brief discusses the methodology for assessing the impact of the lifestory approach on preventing and countering violent extremism. It recommends a mixed-methods approach of qualitative and quantitative elements including interviews, ethnographic observations, questionnaires, and project activities reception. Using these methods to explore the impact of the lifestories on violent extremists, directly affected individuals, and practitioners will provide valuable insight into the effectiveness of the approach in reducing extremist views and preventing radicalization.

This brief is an abridged version of the full report, which can be found at https://hcss.nl/report/measuring-impact-lifestory-approach-preventing-and-countering-violent-extremism.

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New report out now! Download here.

Lifestory videos, which are the personal stories of affected individuals, can be very persuasive in changing attitudes and thus reducing violent extremist sentiments. However, it is important to be able to gauge how effective lifestories have been as an approach to reducing extremism in a community. Therefore, this report lays out a methodology for assessing the success of lifestories in countering and preventing violent extremism. Importantly, the lifestory campaign must be designed with measurable outcomes in mind, and so a pre- and post-story interview discussing the impact with the participant is a useful tool. The paper also recommends a mixed-methods approach that includes quantitative and qualitative research in the form of interviews, ethnographic observations, questionnaires, and project activities reception. Online indicators such as the number of clicks, views, length of viewing, generation of comments, number of redirected users, and the number of users in the lifestories database/website via Google Analytics are also a fruitful source of insight into the impact of the lifestory videos, providing valuable information about how to successfully prevent and counter violent extremism.

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New report out now! Download here. 

This report lays out guidelines for creating lifestory videos to assist in producing high-quality, consistent media with a coherent message. It specifies ideal script/video structure and other technical aspects, such as video shooting, filming locations, imagery, clothing, video length, language and subtitles, music, audio, and translations. The audiovisual format of lifestories can be highly informative as well as persuasive, which makes them an effective tool in preventing and countering violent extremism. Audio-visuals have already been used in a number of campaigns around the world, with varying degrees of success. This paper analyzes these previous efforts and considers which elements worked well as a way to inform lifestory design. It concludes that the authentic emotional qualities of lifestories are crucial for combatting disinformation and deep fakes and for offering counter narratives to propaganda. Directions for the technical aspects of creating these videos is offered as well, with an emphasis on how to maintain credibility and anonymity.

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New policy brief out now! Download here.

This policy brief discusses how to design strategic communications campaigns to prevent and counter violent extremism using lifestory narratives. It focuses on the most effective choices to make when producing and disseminating lifestories in regard to audience, goals, media, and typology. It recommends treating the whole society as the audience, aiming to reduce tensions in the community by addressing extremist and stigmatizing attitudes, sharing the lifestories off- and online, and carefully selecting the narrative type of the stories shown.

This brief is an abridged version of the full report, which can be found at https://hcss.nl/report/lifestory-strategic-communications-framework-case-preventing-and-countering-violent.

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New report out now! Download here.

Lifestory narratives can be a highly effective tool in efforts to prevent and counter violent extremism. These narratives are authentic personal stories told by those whose lives have been touched by extremism, and through sharing them it is possible to promote understanding and empathy among different members of the affected community, thus building resilience and preventing radicalization. However, in order to develop appropriate lifestory narratives, researchers must keep in mind several key elements of design. First, the stories should be prepared for an intended audience of radicalized individuals, vulnerable individuals, and practitioners. The goals of sharing these stories should be to change public perceptions about vulnerable and radicalized individuals, decrease violent extremist views, prevent radicalization, decrease stigmatization, and support reintegration. There must also be a dissemination strategy for sharing the stories on appropriate media with good timing, with a combination of online and offline messaging. Furthermore, lifestory narratives should not run counter to government policies on preventing and countering violent extremism. Finally, researchers should keep in mind that lifestories may offer four different types of narratives: resilient, alternative, counter, and destigmatization. The last two may be counterproductive and exacerbate tensions rather than reduce them, so it is recommended to use mainly resilient and alternative narrative messaging instead.

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New snapshot by assistant analyst Marek Baron out now! Download here. 

There have been significant developments in the field of conflict prediction methods, with many new tools and models available for researchers. However, the effectiveness of these methods and their potential utility in real-world applications still needs to be tested. Many traditional early warning tools are broad, looking at only national or international trends, which makes them unsuitable for intranational issues. Infrequent updates to these tools also reduce their usefulness. Therefore, newer methods and models must be considered.

This snapshot examines novel early warning efforts in Mali, which has experienced significant conflict for nearly a decade. It surveys several quantitative tools that originate from the fields of machine learning, statistical inference, and automated event databases and analyzes their effectiveness in predicting violence in the specific context of the Malian crisis. The paper also considers limitations in the accessibility and financial viability of these methods to explore whether they are viable options for practitioners in Mali to employ in ongoing violence reduction efforts.

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Photo credit: UN Mission in Mali, MINUSMA/Marco Dormino

This policy brief outlines some of the challenges researchers face in the field when working to counter and prevent (non)violent extremism. It focuses on five problematic areas: accessing the targeted communities, security risks, politicization of violent extremism, collaboration with local and international actors, and work-life balance and trauma. It offers suggestions for mitigating these risks.

For a longer examination of the subject, see the report “Countering and Preventing (Non) Violent Extremism: Research and Fieldwork Challenges”

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While most EU member states have achieved a reduction in carbon emissions, the Netherlands has seen an increase from 1990 levels. Despite pledging to reduce its carbon footprint, the country continues to have a heavy reliance on coal to support the high energy needs of its growing population. In order to reduce the environmental impact of coal usage, novel approaches to coal byproducts may offer cleaner solutions for generating power. One promising route is through the use of coal fire ash (CFA), which is produced during the coal firing process. CFA is normally treated as a waste product and disposed of, but it has also been found to be a source of rare-earth elements, which are valuable components of numerous clean energy technologies. Extracting these elements extends coal’s life cycle and is less damaging to the environment than mineral ore mining. It also reduces reliance on importing rare-earth elements from China, the world’s largest producer of them.

One of these rare-earth elements, Vanadium, can be used to make a type of redox flow batteries called Vanadium Flow Batteries (VFBs). VFBs are a long-lasting and sustainable energy source, as the Vanadium electrolyte does not degrade and can be reused. Compared to Lithium Batteries (LiBs), which are currently the most commonly used type of battery, VFBs have a longer lifespan, can undergo more cycles, have a greater depth of discharge, and are more powerful, only lagging behind LiBs in regard to density and energy efficiency. Given these qualities, VFBs are uniquely applicable as utility-scale batteries, particularly in contexts such as smart cities.

In contrast to the way cities run now, smart cities will more efficiently distribute electricity using systems that are better able to balance energy supply and demand. Software-enabled VFBs can be incorporated into the networks of smart cities to manage electricity by recirculating it through methods such as bidirectional charging. This reduces the peak load of electricity demand and allows for the introduction of various-renewable energy into the grid. Thus, the utilization of VFBs can reduce carbon emissions by allowing for more effective energy usage as well as by making use of a former waste product to help offset the negative environmental impact of coal-fired power. Therefore, harvesting CFA for rare-earth elements like Vanadium and implementing them into systems like VFBs is an important step toward a more energy-efficient future.

Download the snapshot by assistant analyst Dylan Browne-Wilkinson here, or by clicking the PDF button to the right.

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This report outlines the challenges facing researchers as they engage with local communities in countering and preventing violent extremism. It focuses on interviews using the lifestory approach as well as the snowball sampling technique and the difficulties arising when using these methods. Some of the main problems for field workers to grapple with are first of all gaining access to subjects, given that many may be unwilling to discuss traumatic events from past conflicts and that these experiences may be taboo to discuss. Many members of affected communities may also be wary of researchers’ motives and therefore be reticent regarding sensitive information. There are also challenges in implementing the approach, as many staff are required to identify participants and carry out the interviews, a process that also requires a great deal of time and necessitates long-term funding. Researchers must balance the demands of both efficient work as well as respectful treatment of local communities. Security is also a concern given the volatility of these regions, putting workers at risk of backlash from the communities, violent organizations, and even from governments themselves. These and other challenges must be considered when designing the research project in order for it to be safe, effective, and ethical.

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The sudden and severe onset of the COVID-19 crisis has shaken nations domestically and internationally as countries navigate the balance of cooperating to fight the epidemic while staying competitive. In response to the outbreak, UN Secretary-General António Guterres called for a ‘global ceasefire’ among nations in order to focus on fighting the virus, an optimistic request reflecting hopes that this crisis would bring about better global cooperation and a break from business as usual. This snapshot examines how countries have risen to that call, assessing whether or not international tensions have indeed relaxed in response. To that end, it looks at numerous longstanding conflicts in order to identify how they may have been affected by the efforts against the outbreak. The report finds that despite the pressing threat of a worldwide epidemic, global tensions have not only remained high, but may have even been exacerbated by the crisis, as economic and military posturing among world powers continues unabated. Meanwhile, media attention has abandoned ongoing conflicts and focused almost exclusively on COVID-19, to the detriment of those affected by these tensions.

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As climate change accelerates and global trade flows become more volatile, European countries grapple with their resource dependencies and try to become more self-sufficient. In light of developments such as the EU Green Deal, the Netherlands continues the path towards closing its consumption and production cycles, aiming to achieve a circular economy by 2050. However, raw material flows and production chains do not stop at the Dutch border. A truly circular economy is a global challenge that requires joint efforts at bilateral and supranational levels.

This report provides a quick scan of the content, direction, and motivations of current circular economy and material resource policies of the Dutch neighboring regions and countries: the European Union, Flanders (Belgium), France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. The analysis also highlights the different interpretations these countries have of the concepts ‘circular economy’ and ‘resource efficiency’, and identifies areas for cross-border cooperation with the Netherlands.

We find that economic security, competitiveness, and climate considerations are the most common drivers of circular economy ambitions in all countries under analysis. While national emphases have previously differed, all countries are now streamlining their circular material resource approaches with the EU, more often than not taking into account entire life cycles. Comparing the countries’ approaches provides useful lessons and takeaways for the Netherlands in improving its current circular economy strategy.

The key takeaways for the Netherlands are the following:

• Further expand cooperation with other countries and position itself as an international player ahead of the curve on circular economy;
• Take producer responsibility into account, and work towards transforming consumption patterns as a whole;
• Further incentivize the private sector toward prioritizing regenerative design and resource reuse in their business models;
• Create a common monitoring and evaluation mechanism for EU countries to better align approaches and track progress.

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New snapshot by assistant analyst Klaudia Klonowska out now! To read, click here. 

On January 30th, 2020, the World Health Organization declared a novel coronavirus COVID-19 a matter of Public Health Emergency of International Concern.  Seeing the rapid growth of infections and deaths, governments worldwide were quick to implement a variety of measures. Among them, technological solutions in the form of anonymized phone location tracking and contract tracing apps.

The use of technology has accelerated a pre-existing debate in Europe regarding the privacy protection of users. In recent years, the European Union has established numerous limitations to the exploitation of personal data. This includes for example the limitation on an indiscriminate sharing of persona data of with US companies.  In 2014, a major court case established a “right to be forgotten” protecting users from indefinite retention of their data on online search platforms.  This was followed in 2015 by Schrems case, in which the Safe Harbor decision was revoked and the transfer of personal data of EU citizens to servers in the US was largely limited.  Most recently, the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) of 2016 sets a groundbreaking and high standard of data protection.  Therefore, the use of phone location data to track people’s movements and the emergence of contact tracing apps have both sparked concerns.

This paper discusses the use of technology as a response to the COVID-19 pandemic among the European Union Member States considering years-long European effort to increase privacy protection. This paper identifies two waves of technological solutions. First, the use of anonymized location data shared by telecommunications companies (hereinafter: telecoms) to monitor crowd movements. Secondly, the emergence of contact tracing apps to speed up the procedure of identifying infected individuals. Both waves of technological solutions are discussed in terms of privacy, transparency and effectiveness.

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Robotic and autonomous systems (RAS) upend the traditional relationship between the military and the private sector. While cooperation remains necessary between these stakeholders, the forms it takes must be adapted to fit the RAS development process. 

This paper explores stakeholder relations at various stages of the non-linear RAS life cycle: development, integration, and use. In this framework, development and integration and use are all interconnected, as repeated rounds of testing are used to refine the initial concept in order to produce improved versions. This requires the developer and end user to work together and form consistent feedback loops. Further challenges include the fact that the private sector tends to drive RAS innovation rather than the military, that the life cycle is often fast-paced, and that ethical and legal considerations complicate the demands placed on the system.

In order to address these challenges, the paper offers recommendations for how to manage the RAS life cycle and balance the needs of different stakeholders. These include calling for close communication between stakeholders from the outset of the process, clear delineation of the tasks and duties of each stakeholder, effective testing of RAS in appropriate environments as well as relevant training, integration of new stakeholders internally and externally, and oversight of technological as well as legal and ethical aspects of RAS deployment by end users. These and other suggestions offer developers a path to navigate the new types of cooperative relations that are needed to effectively manage these novel and complex systems.

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