New snapshot by Richard Ghiasy.

While many fixate on the South China Sea, the vast Indian Ocean region (IOR), stretching from East Africa to South East Asia, and down to Australia, has become a tense multipolar security space. HCSS first flagged this development in the IOR in 2010.  Since then, developments have accelerated. Foreign military facilities and naval forces are proliferating around the Arabian Peninsula.

Simultaneously, the U.S. Navy's role as the primary security provider in the Indian Ocean, including for the safe passage of global trade and energy, has eroded. Consequently, the security dynamics and maritime order of the region are in a state of flux, and a long list of countries are seeking a foothold in the region. The most prominent of these is China.

But China’s rise is not the only factor behind the growing complexity in the IOR’s maritime order. New Delhi aims to become a key security provider in the region: India views the IOR as its natural sphere of influence and access to the Indian Ocean is crucial to Indian national security. In addition, smaller regional powers, particularly in the Middle East and the Gulf, harbor ambitions in the IOR. They aim to expand their areas of influence, notably along the East Africa littoral and the Red Sea.

The vast IOR is home to 32 littorals, numerous emerging markets, and about one-third of the world's population. The region is enjoying rapid economic growth and rapid urbanization, but is also particularly vulnerable to climate change and is a prime candidate for conflict over scarce resources. The IOR is a crucial trade and energy conduit, encompassing key ports and economic zones, and international sea lanes crisscross the IOR's northern stretches.

The result of this geopolitical ferment is a process of intensifying militarization of the region, but despite the increasing strategic significance of the IOR, the prospect of protracted armed conflict in this region remains small. All of the actors have an interest in maintaining a flourishing seaborne trade system. Nevertheless, one miscalculation or skirmish could set off a chain of events that could escalate into a major conflict and involve many stakeholders.

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Photo credit: US Navy

The global challenges caused by the Covid-19 crisis call for a combined effort of nations worldwide; however, the pandemic unfolds against the backdrop of a world that is increasingly characterized by great power competition. This new paper by HCSS and DISCvision highlights possible future interplays between nations in the aftermath of the corona crisis. Comparing four different post-Corona scenarios, it discusses the expected behaviour of world leaders of the U.S., India, China, Russia, France and Germany, based on their cultural context and specific leadership styles.

The findings show distinct features and scenarios. While the consequences of the ongoing pandemic require multilateral collaboration, it seems that the corona crisis further fuels the competition between world powers. The field of international relations is becoming an area of zero-sum games resulting in a world in which international cooperation is increasingly hard to achieve.

The U.S. and China are leading towards no future collaboration whereas Russia is showing no particular interest in improving global stability and cooperation. Only Germany and France perceive future collaboration as a necessary condition. The position of India is still not clear. While the outcomes are limited in their predictive value, the likelihood of intensified international cooperation seems rather poor in the near future.

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About the authors

André Doffer is co-founder of DISCvision. He was employed by ACNielsen, Marketresponse and SmartAgent and is a well-known expert dealing with leisure and retail research and investments. After the merger of Marketresponse with SmartAgent he is responsible for the (geo-) data analytics, retail and real estate investments within DISCvision.

Douwe Reitsma is inspired by exploring the unknown. After being employed by the central government, being manager with a large municipal housing association he became founding partner of the global consultancy firm Ecorys. In 2000 he founded the market research company SmartAgent, which was followed in 2016 by the new venture dealing with behavioural economics: DISCvision.

Jetse Reitsma is trainee at DISCvision and an alumnus of the International Relations MA and the Philosophical Perspectives on Politics and Economy MA programmes at Leiden University. He completed thesis studies on the geopolitical context of the Russian energy industry, the Trans-Pacific Partnership and an analysis on the compatibility of Confucianist and liberal values.

State fragility presents an increasing global security threat. For years the international community has spent considerable effort to promote stability, by reforming and strengthening security sectors in fragile and conflict prone states.

These efforts have met with mixed results. Empirical evidence shows that security sector reform missions have frequently failed to bring stability. In fact, when the security sector forms part of (and sustains) dysfunctional security structures, SSR interventions risk further undermining rather than promoting stability. Evidence suggests that a security sector that is accountable and inclusive and abides by the rule of law can effectively provide stability to the state and its people.

To assess security sectors’ potential contribution to stability, our report which has been commissioned by the Team Conflict Prevention from the Dutch Ministry of Defence, offers a security sector assessment framework (SSAF). The SSAF yields a security sector typology of six security sectors based on an empirical mapping of security sectors in 82 countries: the criminal, the repressive, the oppressive, the fragmented, the transitioning and the stable.

The SSAF is intended to facilitate understanding of security sectors by providing a workable frame that helps policymakers better understand how and why security sectors contribute to or undermine stability, and tailor the design of policy accordingly.

Download the report here, or by clicking on the PDF button. 

In een nieuwe notitie gaat Rob de Wijk in op de geopolitieke effecten van Covid-19, de gevolgen voor de veiligheid en hoe Nederland hierop kan reageren. Download de notitie hier.

Momenteel vallen drie crises samen: de uitbraak van Covid-19, een recessie zonder weerga en een geopolitieke paradigmaverandering, terwijl de Brexit en klimaatverandering ook aandacht vragen. Deze perfect storm in combinatie met het opkomend populisme stelt beleidsmakers zodanig op de proef dat het de vraag is of de nationale politieke systemen en daarmee internationale organisaties als de EU en de NAVO dit aankunnen.

Als dat niet het geval is, kunnen de economische veiligheid, de territoriale integriteit en de maatschappelijke en politieke stabiliteit van Nederland in gevaar komen. Een beleidsomslag zonder precedent is noodzakelijk. Nederland staat daarbij voor een keuze: het multilateralisme versterken en werken aan de verdieping van de Europese samenwerking, met alle pijnlijke politieke keuzes van dien, of toestaan dat de EU teruggaat naar een vrijhandelszone of implodeert.

Download de notitie hier als PDF. 

Disclaimer

Het onderzoek naar en de productie van deze notitie is uitgevoerd binnen de PROGRESS kaderovereenkomst voor onderzoek. De verantwoordelijkheid voor de inhoud en meningen berust uitsluitend bij de auteurs en moet niet worden opgevat als een standpunt van de Nederlandse Ministeries van Buitenlandse Zaken en Defensie.

New snapshot out now! Download here. 

This snapshot considers the path forward for Dutch defense planning. While the Netherlands has a relatively small defense budget, wise investment in innovation for the future will allow these funds to go a long way in preparing for coming developments in warfare, especially as the coronavirus crisis highlights the need for better governmental budgeting. In particular, it is necessary to anticipate the rising importance of the cyber and hybrid-warfare domains and increase capabilities in these areas. This requires research, testing, and implementation of new technologies with collaboration across the different parts of the Dutch military forces, as well as a rethinking of the nature of military tasks and aims. In general, a move from nationally oriented, classical defense to modern, future-oriented strategies and skills is vital to maintaining and augmenting the Netherlands’ relevance on the international defense stage as a valuable partner in NATO and the European Union.

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Photo credit: US Airforce

Satellites, Space Exploration, and the Netherlands’ National Security

New Strategic Alert! Download here.

The economic relevance of space is substantive and growing. Currently, space’s value is primarily derived from satellites orbiting Earth. A 2019 study found that 87.5% of the $277bn in revenues generated in space could be attributed to commercial satellite services. These services are of critical importance to the functioning of the (inter)national economy. Positioning, timing, and navigation (PNT), communications, and Earth observation services form the backbone of many essential processes, such as fleet management or bank transactions. They are also key to the Netherlands’ military capabilities. Several strategic processes, from the execution of beyond line of sight (BLOS) operations to nuclear deterrence, are dependent on satellites. In the long term, space is also likely to play a role in the global energy transition. For example, the rare earth elements (REEs) contained in celestial bodies are in increasingly limited supply on Earth and are required for many renewable technologies.

As interstate competition heats up, an increasing number of states – more than 80 in 2018, compared to 50 in 2008 – have launched satellites into orbit. This, along with reductions in the cost of launching payloads, introduces both threats and opportunities from the Dutch perspective. Well-managed, commercially proactive, and internationally regulated initiatives to unlock and safeguard the space domain’s huge potential could contribute to European strategic autonomy, to the energy transition, and to a continued economic growth. Badly managed initiatives could see an intensification of interstate competition and the deterioration of public services.

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DISCLAIMER: The research for and production of this report has been conducted within the PROGRESS research framework agreement. Responsibility for the contents and for the opinions expressed, rests solely with the authors and does not constitute, nor should be construed as, an endorsement by the Netherlands Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Defence.

New policy brief out now! Download here.

This policy brief discusses the methodology for assessing the impact of the lifestory approach on preventing and countering violent extremism. It recommends a mixed-methods approach of qualitative and quantitative elements including interviews, ethnographic observations, questionnaires, and project activities reception. Using these methods to explore the impact of the lifestories on violent extremists, directly affected individuals, and practitioners will provide valuable insight into the effectiveness of the approach in reducing extremist views and preventing radicalization.

This brief is an abridged version of the full report, which can be found at https://hcss.nl/report/measuring-impact-lifestory-approach-preventing-and-countering-violent-extremism.

Download the brief here, or by clicking the PDF button on the right.

New report out now! Download here.

Lifestory videos, which are the personal stories of affected individuals, can be very persuasive in changing attitudes and thus reducing violent extremist sentiments. However, it is important to be able to gauge how effective lifestories have been as an approach to reducing extremism in a community. Therefore, this report lays out a methodology for assessing the success of lifestories in countering and preventing violent extremism. Importantly, the lifestory campaign must be designed with measurable outcomes in mind, and so a pre- and post-story interview discussing the impact with the participant is a useful tool. The paper also recommends a mixed-methods approach that includes quantitative and qualitative research in the form of interviews, ethnographic observations, questionnaires, and project activities reception. Online indicators such as the number of clicks, views, length of viewing, generation of comments, number of redirected users, and the number of users in the lifestories database/website via Google Analytics are also a fruitful source of insight into the impact of the lifestory videos, providing valuable information about how to successfully prevent and counter violent extremism.

Download the report here, or by clicking the PDF button on the right.

New report out now! Download here. 

This report lays out guidelines for creating lifestory videos to assist in producing high-quality, consistent media with a coherent message. It specifies ideal script/video structure and other technical aspects, such as video shooting, filming locations, imagery, clothing, video length, language and subtitles, music, audio, and translations. The audiovisual format of lifestories can be highly informative as well as persuasive, which makes them an effective tool in preventing and countering violent extremism. Audio-visuals have already been used in a number of campaigns around the world, with varying degrees of success. This paper analyzes these previous efforts and considers which elements worked well as a way to inform lifestory design. It concludes that the authentic emotional qualities of lifestories are crucial for combatting disinformation and deep fakes and for offering counter narratives to propaganda. Directions for the technical aspects of creating these videos is offered as well, with an emphasis on how to maintain credibility and anonymity.

Download the report here, or by clicking the PDF button to the right. 

New policy brief out now! Download here.

This policy brief discusses how to design strategic communications campaigns to prevent and counter violent extremism using lifestory narratives. It focuses on the most effective choices to make when producing and disseminating lifestories in regard to audience, goals, media, and typology. It recommends treating the whole society as the audience, aiming to reduce tensions in the community by addressing extremist and stigmatizing attitudes, sharing the lifestories off- and online, and carefully selecting the narrative type of the stories shown.

This brief is an abridged version of the full report, which can be found at https://hcss.nl/report/lifestory-strategic-communications-framework-case-preventing-and-countering-violent.

Download the brief here, or by clicking the PDF button on the right.

New report out now! Download here.

Lifestory narratives can be a highly effective tool in efforts to prevent and counter violent extremism. These narratives are authentic personal stories told by those whose lives have been touched by extremism, and through sharing them it is possible to promote understanding and empathy among different members of the affected community, thus building resilience and preventing radicalization. However, in order to develop appropriate lifestory narratives, researchers must keep in mind several key elements of design. First, the stories should be prepared for an intended audience of radicalized individuals, vulnerable individuals, and practitioners. The goals of sharing these stories should be to change public perceptions about vulnerable and radicalized individuals, decrease violent extremist views, prevent radicalization, decrease stigmatization, and support reintegration. There must also be a dissemination strategy for sharing the stories on appropriate media with good timing, with a combination of online and offline messaging. Furthermore, lifestory narratives should not run counter to government policies on preventing and countering violent extremism. Finally, researchers should keep in mind that lifestories may offer four different types of narratives: resilient, alternative, counter, and destigmatization. The last two may be counterproductive and exacerbate tensions rather than reduce them, so it is recommended to use mainly resilient and alternative narrative messaging instead.

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New snapshot by assistant analyst Marek Baron out now! Download here. 

There have been significant developments in the field of conflict prediction methods, with many new tools and models available for researchers. However, the effectiveness of these methods and their potential utility in real-world applications still needs to be tested. Many traditional early warning tools are broad, looking at only national or international trends, which makes them unsuitable for intranational issues. Infrequent updates to these tools also reduce their usefulness. Therefore, newer methods and models must be considered.

This snapshot examines novel early warning efforts in Mali, which has experienced significant conflict for nearly a decade. It surveys several quantitative tools that originate from the fields of machine learning, statistical inference, and automated event databases and analyzes their effectiveness in predicting violence in the specific context of the Malian crisis. The paper also considers limitations in the accessibility and financial viability of these methods to explore whether they are viable options for practitioners in Mali to employ in ongoing violence reduction efforts.

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Photo credit: UN Mission in Mali, MINUSMA/Marco Dormino

This policy brief outlines some of the challenges researchers face in the field when working to counter and prevent (non)violent extremism. It focuses on five problematic areas: accessing the targeted communities, security risks, politicization of violent extremism, collaboration with local and international actors, and work-life balance and trauma. It offers suggestions for mitigating these risks.

For a longer examination of the subject, see the report “Countering and Preventing (Non) Violent Extremism: Research and Fieldwork Challenges”

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While most EU member states have achieved a reduction in carbon emissions, the Netherlands has seen an increase from 1990 levels. Despite pledging to reduce its carbon footprint, the country continues to have a heavy reliance on coal to support the high energy needs of its growing population. In order to reduce the environmental impact of coal usage, novel approaches to coal byproducts may offer cleaner solutions for generating power. One promising route is through the use of coal fire ash (CFA), which is produced during the coal firing process. CFA is normally treated as a waste product and disposed of, but it has also been found to be a source of rare-earth elements, which are valuable components of numerous clean energy technologies. Extracting these elements extends coal’s life cycle and is less damaging to the environment than mineral ore mining. It also reduces reliance on importing rare-earth elements from China, the world’s largest producer of them.

One of these rare-earth elements, Vanadium, can be used to make a type of redox flow batteries called Vanadium Flow Batteries (VFBs). VFBs are a long-lasting and sustainable energy source, as the Vanadium electrolyte does not degrade and can be reused. Compared to Lithium Batteries (LiBs), which are currently the most commonly used type of battery, VFBs have a longer lifespan, can undergo more cycles, have a greater depth of discharge, and are more powerful, only lagging behind LiBs in regard to density and energy efficiency. Given these qualities, VFBs are uniquely applicable as utility-scale batteries, particularly in contexts such as smart cities.

In contrast to the way cities run now, smart cities will more efficiently distribute electricity using systems that are better able to balance energy supply and demand. Software-enabled VFBs can be incorporated into the networks of smart cities to manage electricity by recirculating it through methods such as bidirectional charging. This reduces the peak load of electricity demand and allows for the introduction of various-renewable energy into the grid. Thus, the utilization of VFBs can reduce carbon emissions by allowing for more effective energy usage as well as by making use of a former waste product to help offset the negative environmental impact of coal-fired power. Therefore, harvesting CFA for rare-earth elements like Vanadium and implementing them into systems like VFBs is an important step toward a more energy-efficient future.

Download the snapshot by assistant analyst Dylan Browne-Wilkinson here, or by clicking the PDF button to the right.

New report out now! Download here.

This report outlines the challenges facing researchers as they engage with local communities in countering and preventing violent extremism. It focuses on interviews using the lifestory approach as well as the snowball sampling technique and the difficulties arising when using these methods. Some of the main problems for field workers to grapple with are first of all gaining access to subjects, given that many may be unwilling to discuss traumatic events from past conflicts and that these experiences may be taboo to discuss. Many members of affected communities may also be wary of researchers’ motives and therefore be reticent regarding sensitive information. There are also challenges in implementing the approach, as many staff are required to identify participants and carry out the interviews, a process that also requires a great deal of time and necessitates long-term funding. Researchers must balance the demands of both efficient work as well as respectful treatment of local communities. Security is also a concern given the volatility of these regions, putting workers at risk of backlash from the communities, violent organizations, and even from governments themselves. These and other challenges must be considered when designing the research project in order for it to be safe, effective, and ethical.

Download the report here, or by clicking the PDF button to the right.