Publications

Over the years, HCSS has built up an extensive archive of reports, monitors, papers and other publications. We disseminate the results of our research as broadly as possible to benefit the public good. Use the advanced search functions below to browse through our research library, most of which is available as free PDF downloads.

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Policy Brief: A Lifestory Strategic Communications Framework: The Case on Preventing and Countering Violent Extremism and Strengthening Resilience

30 Apr 2020
This policy brief discusses how to design strategic communications campaigns to prevent and counter violent extremism using lifestory narratives. It focuses on the most effective choices to make when producing and disseminating lifestories in regard to audience, goals, media, and typology. It recommends treating the whole society as the audience, aiming to reduce tensions in […]
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A Lifestory Strategic Communications Framework: The Case on Preventing and Countering Violent Extremism and Strengthening Resilience

29 Apr 2020
Lifestory narratives can be a highly effective tool in efforts to prevent and counter violent extremism. These narratives are authentic personal stories told by those whose lives have been touched by extremism, and through sharing them it is possible to promote understanding and empathy among different members of the affected community, thus building resilience and […]
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Artificial Intelligence Tools versus Practice in Conflict Prediction: The Case of Mali

29 Apr 2020
There have been significant developments in the field of conflict prediction methods, with many new tools and models available for researchers. However, the effectiveness of these methods and their potential utility in real-world applications still needs to be tested. Many traditional early warning tools are broad, looking at only national or international trends, which makes […]
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Policy Brief: Countering and Preventing (Non) Violent Extremism: Research and Fieldwork Challenges

24 Apr 2020
This policy brief outlines some of the challenges researchers face in the field when working to counter and prevent (non)violent extremism. It focuses on five problematic areas: accessing the targeted communities, security risks, politicization of violent extremism, collaboration with local and international actors, and work-life balance and trauma. It offers suggestions for mitigating these risks.
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Coal's Paradox: A Source for Renewable Technology

23 Apr 2020
While most EU member states have achieved a reduction in carbon emissions, the Netherlands has seen an increase from 1990 levels. Despite pledging to reduce its carbon footprint, the country continues to have a heavy reliance on coal to support the high energy needs of its growing population. In order to reduce the environmental impact […]
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Countering and Preventing (Non) Violent Extremism: Research and Fieldwork Challenges

23 Apr 2020
This report outlines the challenges facing researchers as they engage with local communities in countering and preventing violent extremism. It focuses on interviews using the lifestory approach as well as the snowball sampling technique and the difficulties arising when using these methods. Some of the main problems for field workers to grapple with are first […]
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COVID-19 and world peace: An overture to a new era or business as usual?

21 Apr 2020
The sudden and severe onset of the COVID-19 crisis has shaken nations domestically and internationally as countries navigate the balance of cooperating to fight the epidemic while staying competitive. In response to the outbreak, UN Secretary-General António Guterres called for a ‘global ceasefire’ among nations in order to focus on fighting the virus, an optimistic […]
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Moving Towards Circularity in Western Europe

16 Apr 2020
As climate change accelerates and global trade flows become more volatile, European countries grapple with their resource dependencies and try to become more self-sufficient. In light of developments such as the EU Green Deal, the Netherlands continues the path towards closing its consumption and production cycles, aiming to achieve a circular economy by 2050. However, […]
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The COVID-19 pandemic: two waves of technological responses in the European Union

15 Apr 2020
On January 30th, 2020, the World Health Organization declared a novel coronavirus COVID-19 a matter of Public Health Emergency of International Concern.  Seeing the rapid growth of infections and deaths, governments worldwide were quick to implement a variety of measures. Among them, technological solutions in the form of anonymized phone location tracking and contract tracing […]
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Effective Stakeholder Cooperation during the Lifecycle of Robotic and Autonomous Systems

31 Mar 2020
Robotic and autonomous systems (RAS) upend the traditional relationship between the military and the private sector. While cooperation remains necessary between these stakeholders, the forms it takes must be adapted to fit the RAS development process.  This paper explores stakeholder relations at various stages of the non-linear RAS life cycle: development, integration, and use. In […]
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Pandemic Mitigation in the Digital Age: Digital Epidemiological Measures to Combat the Coronavirus Pandemic

27 Mar 2020
As the current coronavirus pandemic proceeds, several governments have already utilized digital epidemiological tools to combat the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, with some early successes. The role of user-based and provider-based data collection, and in particular location data, has characterized the mitigation strategies of some of the most effective national responses. These measures may […]
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Gaat de Coronacrisis de wereld veranderen?

25 Mar 2020
Het coronavirus luidt vermoedelijk niet het einde van de mondialisering in. Daarvoor zijn de interdependenties te groot en de mondiale bevoorradingsketens te complex. Bovendien is Europa, dus ook Nederland, voor zijn overleven grotendeels afhankelijk van wat er in het buitenland wordt geproduceerd en aan grondstoffen wordt gedolven. Wel kan de crisis het proces van slowbalisation […]
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Managing RAS: The Need for New Norms and Arms Control

17 Mar 2020
This paper is a collaboration with Clingendael authors Hugo Klijn and Maaike Okano-Heijmans, with contributions from Bianca Torossian. Against a backdrop of geopolitical tensions and rapid technological developments, the debate on governing autonomous weapons is gaining momentum – both in the Netherlands as well as in other countries. Discussions are complicated, however, because of wide variations in […]
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Strategic Communications Capability Building in the Western Balkans

11 Mar 2020
The strengthening of strategic communication capabilities in the states of the Western Balkans is of crucial importance for the strengthening of regional and European security. The Western Balkans StratCom Game, executed by The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies, with the support of the Austrian Ministry of Defence, has sought to identify the course of action […]
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Reimagining Deterrence: Towards Strategic (Dis)Suasion Design

10 Mar 2020
Given the increasingly tense posturing of world powers like the U.S., Russia, and China, as well as political volatility across the globe, deterrence has once again become a popular feature of many governments’ strategies. However, the old framework of deterrence that was developed during the Cold War has become outdated in an age of more […]
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The Military Applicability of Robotic and Autonomous Systems

28 Feb 2020
This paper looks into the state of robotic and autonomous systems (RAS) and their current implementation in the military context, as well as their potential applications. RAS presents numerous, significant and far-reaching opportunities, including creating better and faster situational awareness and understanding, reducing the physical and cognitive loads of soldiers, sustaining and protecting the force, extending […]
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A Horizon Scan of Trends and Developments in Hybrid Conflicts set to shape 2020 and beyond

20 Feb 2020
In collaboration with TNO, we present this booklet on trends and developments in hybrid conflicts set to shape 2020 and beyond. Hybrid threats are one of the main security challenges Western democracies currently struggle with. Hybrid threats are in the news, mostly framed or wrapped in specific ‘hybrid’ phenomena such as disinformation, foreign meddling in […]
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Far-Right Trends in South Eastern Europe: The Influences of Russia, Croatia, Serbia and Albania

18 Feb 2020
Far-right violent extremism is thriving in several parts of South East Europe (SEE), but despite its widespread influence, relatively little research has been done on its alarming reach. Therefore, this paper assesses the origin and perpetuation of far-right violent extremism in SEE and finds that the situation there uniquely facilitates the spread of far-right ideology, […]
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Governing Autonomous Weapon Systems

3 Feb 2020
The international community has been vividly discussing ways to control the use of autonomous weapon systems (AWS) by military forces. Throughout the process, both legal and non-legal solutions have been proposed aiming to improve accountability, ethical and legal standards, and verifiability of the autonomous systems. HCSS surveyed the landscape of proposed solutions in order to […]
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Strategic Monitor 2019 2020

Strategic Monitor 2019-2020 - The Writing on the Wall

28 Jan 2020
In order to remain on top of the rapid changes in the international environment, the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of Defence have tasked The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS) and the Clingendael Institute to conduct research within the framework of the Strategic Monitor, which monitors trends and developments in the international […]
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The deteriorating outlook for Dutch small natural gas fields

27 Jan 2020
Over the last decade, long-term forecasts of Dutch natural gas production in small fields have consistently over-estimated production. The main reason for this is not technical or geological but rather an underestimate of the speed at which the business climate for the Dutch gas industry has deteriorated. Fewer projects than expected materialized; the projects that […]
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What World do we Live in? An Analysis of Global Geodynamic Trends

25 Jan 2020
Has the world become more free and secure, or is democracy under attack? This report aims to answer the question “what is the state of the world today?” It is part of our upcoming Strategic Monitor 2019-2020.
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Methodological Annex: What World do we Live in?

25 Jan 2020
This short paper outlines the indicators and methods used to establish whether the world has become more equitable and prosperous, more democratic, and more peaceful. It also outlines the indicators and methods used to establish whether identitary issues have become a larger force in the international system, whether lawlessness has increased, and whether the world has become more connected. It is part of our upcoming Strategic Monitor 2019-2020.
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The Evolving Position of the Netherlands in the World

24 Jan 2020
Navigating the changing global environment requires first and foremost a keen understanding of changes in Dutch foreign relations. The Dutch Foreign Relations Index (DFRI) measures the relationship between the Netherlands and other countries over time. This can help in identifying potential partners as well as potential adversaries in the pursuit of Dutch foreign policy objectives. It is part of our upcoming Strategic Monitor 2019-2020.
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