Reweaving Silk Roads: The Middle Corridor’s Role in EU Economic Security

Globalisation has created deeply interconnected supply chains, but it has also turned trade corridors into strategic assets. When these arteries are disrupted, the consequences extend beyond logistics to economic security and strategic autonomy. Reweaving Silk Roads examines how the European Union can respond.

The report focuses on the Middle Corridor, formally the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), a multimodal land route connecting China to Europe via Central Asia and the Caspian Sea. Since 2022, and particularly following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Europe’s reliance on the Northern Corridor through Russia has become a strategic vulnerability. The Middle Corridor offers a complementary alternative that supports sanctions credibility, supply chain resilience, and long-term economic security.

The report argues that the Corridor must be understood not merely as infrastructure, but as a strategic space shaped by geopolitics, governance, and security dynamics. Its viability depends on four interlocking dimensions: physical infrastructure, economic competitiveness, political-institutional coordination, and security resilience.

Significant challenges remain. Bottlenecks at Caspian ports, ageing ferry fleets, regulatory fragmentation, high transport costs, and low freight volumes constrain competitiveness. Political coordination across Corridor states remains incomplete, while regional instability and infrastructure vulnerabilities pose security risks.

Yet the strategic opportunity is substantial. The Corridor strengthens Europe’s connectivity with Central Asia and the South Caucasus, regions critical for trade diversification, energy transition objectives, and access to critical raw materials. If scaled effectively, it can reduce exposure to geopolitical disruption and maritime chokepoints.

The report calls for a comprehensive EU approach: coordinated infrastructure investment, tariff harmonisation and market reforms to improve commercial viability, institutionalised corridor governance, and enhanced security cooperation.

The Middle Corridor’s future will depend on whether it evolves from a fragmented set of national links into a coherent, resilient system. With sustained leadership and strategic alignment, the EU can shape it into a cornerstone of European economic security.

As lead author Fiona de Cuyper notes:

“While the Middle Corridor cannot substitute maritime trade in terms of scale, it can serve as a complementary route for diversification, particularly for higher-value cargo, thereby improving overall supply chain resilience.”

Authors: Fiona de Cuyper, Laurence Krakow, Laura Jasper

Contributors: Berend Kwak and Ciaran Cassidy

Datalab: Nidas Brandsma

Quality Assurance: Paul Sinning

Cover photo: AI generated

The research for and production of this report has been conducted within the PROGRESS research framework agreement. Responsibility for the contents and for the opinions expressed, rests solely with the authors and does not constitute, not should be construed as, an endorsement by the Netherlands Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Defence.

The research for this report was completed in December 2025. Events or developments that occurred between completion and publication did not influence the findings.

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