Over the last few years the oil price has experienced significant changes. From well over 100 dollars per barrel in the pre-2014 high oil price world, the price dropped to as low as 30 dollars per barrel in early 2016. Since then, it has embarked on a trajectory of gradually rising prices, reaching close to 70 (WTI) or 80 (Brent) dollars per barrel by mid 2018.
In this paper we aim to discuss the questions and uncertainties that, in our view, matter the most for the future of oil markets and the oil industry. Whilst discussing different scenarios we will not refrain from focusing on the scenario that we consider the most likely (rather than giving an extensive overview of potential scenarios). We will do so for three different timeframes:
- Short term, up to 2020, with a focus on shale oil
- Medium term, 2020-2025, with a focus on conventional oil
- Long term, 2025-2040, with a focus on peak oil (demand)
Authors: Jilles van den Beukel, independent energy analyst (formerly a principal geoscientist at Shell) & Lucia van Geuns
Download the paper here.
Listen to the podcast with Jilles and Lucia exploring the same topic.
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