Sudan has made it into the headlines. Once more. This time, it is not because of atrocities in Darfur, nor is it because the president Omar Al-Bashir publicly resents the ICC arrest warrant against him. This time it is because of an unprecedented milestone in the country’s history. This week the polling for the Southern Sudan referendum on secession from the North takes place. Southerners have fought for 22 years for this right and an overwhelming majority is determined to vote for an independent South Sudan. The real question however is not what will be the referendum’s outcome, but what comes after.
International headlines are reporting from the Southern capital Juba, showing excited crowds waving banners that promote secession. It is an emotional moment for some eight million people, and it is an emotional decision to break Africa’s largest country in two. Juba’s hotel rooms are cramped with international journalists who flew in last week to stage their crews onto the newly paved streets.
The headlines however emphasize the wrong aspects of the news. In fact, the referendum is old news. That it takes place, was news two weeks before. That it is being organized without major opposition from the North was news the week before that. And even more importantly: the outcome will hardly be news. Nobody expects the Southern Sudanese to give unity a chance despite the fact that since 2005 peace between North and South has been kept, and there was no major outbreak of violence. Despite all grievances, this is a major achievement, unlike the fate of many other African nations that have come out from civil war. Instead, everybody expects the South to support secession.
So, the big news is NOT how the South will vote. The big news will come after the TV crews have left. There is an important difference between the political right to become independent from the North, and the practical implementation thereof. Looking beyond the referendum, North and South Sudan’s leaders will have time until 9 July 2011 when the peace agreement, and with it the interim constitution, becomes obsolete. Both sides know that they need each other like ‘Siamese twins’, as a recent report from the European Coalition on Oil in Sudan suggests. There is a huge range of unresolved issues that still lie on the negotiation table, which have to be brought together in an overall post-referendum package. Until now, nothing has been agreed upon. Citizenship rights, currencies, international debt, oil revenues and cross-border arrangements are merely the most pressing of the issues that the main parties still have to iron out. It is far from certain that minorities in both North and South will be given a fair chance to civil rights, and to maintain a decent livelihood. In such a political vacuum, the Southern Sudanese vote blindly, not knowing what secession means for their lives.
South Sudan, if fully independent, is completely landlocked, gets 98% (!) of its national revenues from oil (which is exclusively exported through the North) and spends more than two thirds of its budget on security. After five years of peace, a country the size of France only has 50 kilometers of paved road. Most former rebel leaders have given priority to Juba’s development, and often invested their peace deal salaries in Nairobi, Kampala or even London. The rest of the country has seen little change since 2005. Not all ministers can read and write, and educated personnel is hard to come by no wonder after years of underdevelopment. Corruption is rampant, and federal authority over the ten provinces is de-facto non-existent. Every governor reigns over taxes and natural resources largely without any control of power. South Sudan is a nightmare to govern under the best of circumstances.
Everybody agrees that Southern Sudanese have the right to voice their choice to secede politically. But how this political secession can bring benefit to the eight million citizens is a matter of economic interdependence. And a matter of getting a good deal with the North how to go about it. It is the coming years’ implementation of such a pending deal which will be the big news. But it is going to be a long, dragging process and many setbacks should be expected on the way. By that time, the camera crews might have more important news to cover. But at least they will be there for the emotional part of the story.
Ulrich Mans is based in Khartoum, Sudan
