The influence of OPEC appears to be on the decline as the share of production from non-OPEC countries and shale oil rises sharply. This rise of non-OPEC output, in combination with a weak global economy and slowing demand in China has set in motion an oil price slide of around 30% since last June. As a result, the whole world was anxiously watching Vienna last Thursday, when perhaps the most important meeting of OPEC since the financial crisis took place.
Ultimately, Saudi Arabia’s concern over market share proved the winning argument, and no production cut was announced – much to the detriment of the cartel’s weaker members Venezuela, Iran, Iraq and Nigeria. Not surprisingly, Brent oil tumbled further following the result of yesterday’s meeting. For non-OPEC member Russia, battered by sanctions, this also is a development they could well do without.
Then what should we expect to happen until the next OPEC meeting in June 2015? What will happen to the price of oil until? What will be the impact on US shale production? Anadolu News Agency from Turkey spoke with Sijbren de Jong (HCSS), Valerie Marcel (Chatham House) and Thomas Pugh (Capital Economics). The full interview can be read here.
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