HCSS and CSDS publish major new assessment of Europe’s preparedness and resilience: ‘Uneven, path-dependent and fragmented’
The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS), together with the Centre for Security, Diplomacy and Strategy (CSDS), has just released Assessing Europe’s Resilience and Preparedness in an Era of Strategic Risks, an in-depth assessment of how EU and NATO member states can withstand increasingly hybrid shocks.
The report warns that Europe faces a new generation of “whole-of-society” shocks—where military threats converge with climatic, economic and technological pressures—yet still lacks coherent, system-wide resilience.
Drawing on comparative analysis of ten EU and NATO countries and three in-depth case studies, the authors find that Europe’s resilience is uneven, path-dependent, and too often fragmented across national systems. Critical gaps persist in foresight and anticipation, civil–military cooperation, and the infrastructure underpinning military mobility.
The report issues several key findings:
- National resilience across Europe is highly uneven, creating collective exposure for the EU and NATO.
- Military mobility faces major constraints, including fuel distribution gaps, transport bottlenecks, and vulnerable digital infrastructure.
- Undersea cables and 5G networks remain critical and exposed components of Europe’s security ecosystem.
- The Netherlands, despite solid performance, faces chokepoint vulnerabilities and must expand redundancy in energy, transport and digital systems.
The authors offer concrete EU–NATO and Netherlands-specific recommendations.
EU–NATO-wide:
- Create an EU–NATO Fuel Assurance Compact, strengthen fuel distribution and establish joint supply-chain due diligence.
- Expand EU funding for dual-use transport corridors, accelerate standard-gauge transition and align NATO requirements.
- Establish a multinational undersea cable intelligence task force and unify due-diligence for 5G and other dual-use technologies.
Netherlands-specific:
- Position the Netherlands as a leader in green defence resilience.
- Build redundancy for the Port of Rotterdam and alternative transport corridors.
- Formalise civil–military agreements with logistics providers and expand Dutch undersea cable and 5G protection programmes.
Lead author Hans Horan notes: “Europe has the political will and institutional tools to build a genuine Preparedness Union. But unless we close the gap between ambition and delivery, the weakest links in our resilience systems will continue to jeopardise the collective security of the EU and NATO.”
The report underscores that strengthening civil–military integration, investing in anticipatory capacity and hardening critical infrastructure are essential steps toward safeguarding Europe’s security, prosperity and democratic stability.
Partner institution: Centre for Security, Diplomacy and Strategy (CSDS) of the Brussels School of Governance
Authors: Hans Horan, Pieter-Jan Vandoren, Dr Daniel Fiott, Jan Feldhusen
Contributor: Dr Davis Ellison
Editor: Frank Bekkers
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