HCSS subject matter expert Collin J. Meisel, together with his Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures colleagues Jonathan D. Moyer and Austin S. Matthews, have published a peer-reviewed article in the Journal of Contemporary China titled “Measuring and forecasting the rise of China: Reality over image”
The authors’ intent is to encourage readers to reconcile images with reality, where a China-US power transition is the product of structural trends rather than hostile intentions by either party.
The rise of Chinese capabilities relative to those of the United States has received widespread attention. Some argue that a transition in relative capabilities has already occurred, others that it is unlikely within this century. This article presents a new multidimensional measure of relative national capabilities and forecasts using the International Futures model across 29 alternative scenarios.
This article finds that Chinese capabilities surpass the United States in 26 scenarios before 2060, with the most frequent period of power transition being the early 2040s. This analysis offers an opportunity for leaders to reconcile national images with reality, potentially reducing the risk of conflict associated with great power transition.
Read the full open-access article here, or download the PDF below.