For the umpteenth time, President Trump threatened the Europeans last week. He advised them to “have the courage” to enter the Strait of Hormuz and “take the oil.” And: “you need to learn how to fight for yourselves, because the U.S. is no longer there to help you, just as you were not there for us.”
In The Telegraph, he then threatened to withdraw from NATO. Legally, Trump cannot withdraw from NATO on his own, but as commander-in-chief he can suspend the defense of Europe.
An ally that does not want to protect us, posts violence-glorifying videos on the website of a pro-Russian White House, refers to the war with Iran as a “lovely stay,” and has a secretary of defense who prays for crude “violence” against enemies who deserve no “compassion,” is of no use to us anymore. Moreover, morality has left the White House, and the transatlantic community of values is over.
Europe stands alone.
When less than six months ago in my latest book, I wrote that America should leave NATO and that Europe can take care of its own defense, I was met with condescension. But by now, a debate about a “European-led NATO” has emerged. I notice among colleagues that they are slowly changing their minds. We should now seize Trump’s remarks to ask the Americans to indeed leave NATO or suspend their membership. Right now, we still have a chance at an orderly separation. Later, it will become a messy divorce.
But in European politics, wishful thinking and disbelief still dominate, hoping that everything will turn out fine and that things won’t escalate that far. Meanwhile, a nightmare scenario is rapidly approaching.
This scenario becomes reality if Trump does not stop within the announced few weeks, if the war escalates further, and if pro-Iranian militant groups refuse to back down. The Houthis have already resumed their attacks. If they turn against the EU-led Aspides mission in the Red Sea, Europe will also become involved in this conflict.
The risks for Europe increase even further if all Patriot missiles in the Middle East are expended, or if America decides to stop supplying advanced weaponry—beyond the Patriot system—to Ukraine. Trump has already threatened this.
If Trump puts more pressure on President Zelensky to hand over the rest of the Donbas to Russia without a fight and actually turns his back on NATO, this will create not only a dire situation for Ukraine but also for other European countries.
Putin would see this as a victory that invites more. He could then set his sights on the Baltic states, which he believes belong to Russia. Trump might then tell the Europeans: “you’re on your own—I haven’t forgotten that you didn’t support me in the Strait of Hormuz.” And if things really go badly, Trump could choose to supply his oil and LNG to others instead of those unwilling Europeans.
An unthinkable scenario? Certainly not. That means Europe must stop engaging in wishful thinking and begin preparing a war economy.
Source: Trouw, Rob de Wijk, 3 april 2026
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