With Queensland hit by the worst floods since 1974, countless people have lost their homes, possessions or even their lives. We are once again reminded of the raw force of Mother Nature, the vulnerability of modern-day advanced societies, and the importance of ecological security. The pictures of flooded streets, gyms filled with field beds and people paddling through urban centres bring back the memories of Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans in 2005 and the Tsunami that hit coastal regions along the Indian Ocean in 2004. Fortunately, with respect to these previous cases, the scale of devastation will likely be smaller and the government’s crisis-preparedness appears to be sounder.
The floods have put Australia at the top of Dutch daily news. This is a rarity since – it almost goes without saying – this country that lies halfway across the globe hardly figures in the day-to-day dealings of the Dutch. Down Under is still the land of kangaroos, Uluru and student sabbaticals. However, neither does Australia seem to figure in the strategic considerations of our foreign policy elite. This is somewhat surprising since Australia possesses all the ingredients to become a key node as a mediating power in the new strategic environment of the early 21st century.
Australia’s location at the crossroads between the Indian and Pacific Oceans means that it is prime real-estate overlooking the tectonic shifts occurring in international relations. Stellar economic growth in India and China has been good news for Australia’s trade balance. But as economic power translates into increased political ambition, these states run the risk of clashing, either with each other or encroaching on that other regional actor, the United States. As a medium power, dependent on a stable export environment, Australia has a strong interest that the ‘rise of the rest’ occurs smoothly and predictably. Experts suggest that Indian, US and Chinese navies will vie for regional influence. For Australia this provides an interest in mediating between them, rather than choosing sides.
This role as mediator is nicely suited to Australia’s outlook and is of value to Europe. Perth in the west is twice as close to New Delhi as it is to Los Angeles. While Darwin in the north – is closer to Jakarta than it is to Canberra. This makes Australia an Asian country by default, yet it retains a distinct Western Anglo-Saxon culture. It has long viewed itself as a European outpost in an Asian environment, yet unlike the Portuguese, British and Dutch explorers of the past, its presence is not fleeting. Its status as an Indo-Pacific power allows Canberra to communicate with Asian capitals from a unique vantage point, foreign to European capitals, while its regional knowledge and experience are appealing qualities for Europeans trying to come to grips with the new strategic dynamics of the Indo-Pacific.
With vast mineral deposits of its own, including one of the few viable alternatives to Chinese rare earth elements, Australia is also a crucial producer for ensuring materials security for advanced industries around the globe, including Europe. It is a possible hedge for consumer-states wishing to balance against the whims of state-controlled mineral exports. A recent conference on rare earth elements hosted at the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs and co-organized by the Australian embassy signified the importance both governments accord it.
Furthermore, Australia is becoming a significant source of hydrocarbons. The LNG terminal at Barrow Island in Western Australia is billed to start producing within the next six months, delivering gas to customers in India, China, and Korea. Its geographic proximity to these booming markets allows it to compete with suppliers from the Middle East. In the Timor Sea, the Baya-Undan LNG project has been serving Japan since 2006.
Close relations between Australia and Japan not only make economic sense but are also part of a potential balancing strategy against Chinese maritime influence. A naval exercise in 2007 with India, the United States, Singapore and Japan near the Andaman Islands also demonstrated that Australia is not wholly at ease with the developments in the region. The ANZUS Treaty and Australia’s participation in NATO operations in Afghanistan reinforce a tilt towards the United States in security affairs. On the other hand, China remains the country’s principle trading partner fuelling economic growth (with Japan a close second). Exemplary of being a mediator in a turbulent region, Australia’s foreign policy will likely remain a tightrope-walk.
One of the few obstacles standing in its way for developing into a fully-fledged Indo-Pacific mediator requires looking at the map. In a territory the size of Europe, most of Australia’s tiny population is concentrated in the more moderate south-eastern quadrant. Travelling to Darwin or Perth by road means crossing through a whole lot of breathtakingly beautiful Nothing, the Outback. Historically, Australia has quite literally turned its back towards the Indian Ocean. This however is likely to change and the city of Perth is perhaps symptomatic of it. Fuelled by the resource boom of the past decade, the city has been the fastest growing community in the country for several years. As it grows it is likely to direct Canberra’s attention more and more towards the Indian Ocean.
Besides considering disaster relief for the victims of Brisbane’s floodwaters, as the world’s security focus shifts to the Indian Ocean rim, the Dutch Ministry of Foreign Affairs should assess whether its strategic partnerships still make sense. The Hague would do well to consider how ‘Aussie’ fits within this picture.
