A Sino-Saudi Axis on the Horizon?

Nowhere is the growing importance of China on the international stage so evident than in the Middle East, especially in connection to Saudi Arabia. Long gone are the days in which the Saudi royal family perceived communism as the number one enemy and dedicated much efforts and resources to curb its influence inside and outside the Kingdom. While China has not exactly shed all its communist feathers, it has given a new meaning to the term “state capitalism.” Today’s China is a vibrant economic player with an attractive long term economic growth, backed by growing political influence and military might. Lured by its wealth and power Saudi Arabia sees China as a strategic friend.

The turning point was in 1993, whereby China became a net oil-importer. Chinas quest for deep oil wells to meet its veracious appetite met Saudi Arabias need for an energy-thirsty market. Their partnership is more than just a question of demand and supply, but a matter of political and economic survival. Without oil rent which accounts for roughly 75 percent of national income the Saudi state cannot sustain its societal pact of no-taxation and generous subsidies distribution. For its part, without steady and sufficient supply of oil, China can hardly maintain the rate of economic growth needed to ensure internal political stability.

The evolving strategic relationship is clearly illustrated by the growth in the volume of trade between the two countries. In 2008 bilateral trade surged to $41.8 billion (a 65 percent increase) and is expected to exceed $60 billion by 2015. Although the oil connection is at the heart of Sino-Saudi relations, oil supplies are not where the relationship begins and ends. Other economic ties between the two countries are also growing. This includes generous contracts in areas of construction, and exploration and production of natural gas. Chinese companies were awarded numerous contracts worth billions of dollars, while Saudi Aramco took equity stakes in China’s refining business. The desire to deepen political and economic ties is reflected in the frequent exchanges of high-level visit.

While China has thus far preached and practiced a foreign policy of non-interference, sooner or later its far-flunk economic interests will weigh in on its foreign policy. After all, throughout history economic interests has led great powers to increase their political influence abroad. To guard its interests in the region China will find it necessary to play greater political, if not also military, role in the Middle East. China will do what the US has been doing rallying behind Saudi Arabia. However, China’s friendship comes risk-free. Unlike the US, which has long been perceived as pro-Israel and anti-Arab, often leaving the Saudi royal family at odds with its own society and other Arab governments, China’s record in the region is untarnished. Thus China’s friendship pays political dividends handsome enough to mollify threats in a region that lives by power politics.

For Saudi Arabia one of the two most pressing issues is the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. More than six decades ago, the expired British imperial power bequeathed the question of Palestine to the US. However, much to the discontent of the Arab states the question of Palestine was cast in the US foreign policy in terms of Israel security. For several decades Palestinians and Israelis withdrew from dead-end negotiations only to meet in bloody confrontations. Meanwhile, the US credibility as an honest broker in the region has withered, and remnants of hope in the United Nations and the European Union have evaporated. China may well come in the Saudi’s view as a counterbalance to the US.

Second issue is the Iranian ambitions in the Gulf, which runs counter to Saudi national security. In order to check Iranian influence in the region, Saudi Arabia has leaned on Iraq and the US for two decades. Today’s Iraq, however, is hardly a pillar to lean on. Even tomorrow’s Iraq, united and strong, is far unlikely to view Iran through the Saudi prism. That deep Iraqi-Iranian animosity was buried after the fall of Saddam, and neither country wants to unearth the dark past. Obama’s double talk reaching out, but also seeking sanctions has neither won over nor deterred Iran. Instead, the going nowhere policy has left US friends in the region looking for alternative approaches, if not players. In the words of the Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud Al Faisal: “Sanctions are a long term solution…We see the issue in the shorter term[and] we need immediate resolutions rather than gradual resolution to this…”

Without a doubt, a zero-sum resolution for Iran’s nuclear standoff is far-fetched. While the Iranians are determined to enrich uranium on Iranian soil, the US and its allies are determined to block Iran’s nuclear program. However, between defiance and intransigence there is an ample space for the right actor to strike a breakthrough. Given its “friendly” relations with Iran, underpinned by its investment in Iran’s oil and energy sectors, Chinese mediation might be the key to Saudi insecurity. While Chinese diplomacy has not arrived yet, it has been invited. Awaiting its arrival is a warm Saudi welcome.